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Anyone have estimates on how many people Russia could kill in the worst case situation of a full scale launch? Would it be the extinction of humanity due to the

by csee 5y ago

Anyone have estimates on how many people Russia could kill in the worst case situation of a full scale launch? Would it be the extinction of humanity due to the nuclear holocaust that follows?

jl6 5y ago
Worst case? I think it would be hard to guarantee actual extinction. Probably some people would survive. But most wouldn’t, and civilization as we know it would most certainly be over.
- emteycz 5y ago
  The question is if the nukes will even be able to get into air, travel to their targets, and correctly perform their function there. I'm increasingly sure it wouldn't work, these people are full of shit. Also, I think the technological gap is now simply too large. The recon capabilities of today + various types of UAV and new kinds of manned aerial vehicles, coupled with new generations of weapon systems, could very well mean we would pluck the nukes from the sky mid-way.
  - headmelted 5y ago
    This seems like an incredibly bold assumption to roll the dice on, you know, given you’re talking about almost all life on Earth. I’ve also never heard of a defence system that can pluck that many missiles out of the air. The closest I’ve heard of is the Iron Dome - which would not be able to stop what you’re talking about at all. I would think the nation that has that capability would make it known for geopolitical reasons.
    - jl6 5y ago
      While I agree that anti-missile technology is extraordinarily unlikely to be as effective as hoped for upthread, if it did exist at that level of capability, the owner may still wish to keep it a secret. If it becomes known that your enemy possesses the capability to neutralize your primary weapon, you are likely to take counter-counter-measures, which could undo the advantage.
  - histriosum 5y ago
    Citation needed... As far as I know, no country today has a viable anti-ballistic missile defense system that works well enough to stop even a small percentage of the number of nukes that would be triggered by a MAD style endgame. What technology are you talking about?
  - csee 5y ago
    All their other missiles have worked.....
    - emteycz 5y ago
      I'm seeing tons of reports of preventable malfunctions of all their equipment. Damn it, their tanks are running out of fuel mid-way to battle! Their bombs are rusted!!! What kind of operation are they running FFS? https://twitter.com/ukrpravda_news/status/1497673691395670017 https://twitter.com/ukrpravda_news/status/149767369139567001... Seems like the most likely course of their nuclear attack is, they blow up themselves because the doors rusted shut.
      - csee 5y ago
        Even if 30% of their missiles fail, 70% still gets through. That's about a thousand nukes.

by csee 5y ago

Anyone have estimates on how many people Russia could kill in the worst case situation of a full scale launch? Would it be the extinction of humanity due to the nuclear holocaust that follows?

jl6 5y ago

Worst case? I think it would be hard to guarantee actual extinction. Probably some people would survive. But most wouldn’t, and civilization as we know it would most certainly be over.

emteycz 5y ago
The question is if the nukes will even be able to get into air, travel to their targets, and correctly perform their function there. I'm increasingly sure it wouldn't work, these people are full of shit. Also, I think the technological gap is now simply too large. The recon capabilities of today + various types of UAV and new kinds of manned aerial vehicles, coupled with new generations of weapon systems, could very well mean we would pluck the nukes from the sky mid-way.
- headmelted 5y ago
  This seems like an incredibly bold assumption to roll the dice on, you know, given you’re talking about almost all life on Earth. I’ve also never heard of a defence system that can pluck that many missiles out of the air. The closest I’ve heard of is the Iron Dome - which would not be able to stop what you’re talking about at all. I would think the nation that has that capability would make it known for geopolitical reasons.
  - jl6 5y ago
    While I agree that anti-missile technology is extraordinarily unlikely to be as effective as hoped for upthread, if it did exist at that level of capability, the owner may still wish to keep it a secret. If it becomes known that your enemy possesses the capability to neutralize your primary weapon, you are likely to take counter-counter-measures, which could undo the advantage.
- histriosum 5y ago
  Citation needed... As far as I know, no country today has a viable anti-ballistic missile defense system that works well enough to stop even a small percentage of the number of nukes that would be triggered by a MAD style endgame. What technology are you talking about?
- csee 5y ago
  All their other missiles have worked.....
  - emteycz 5y ago
    I'm seeing tons of reports of preventable malfunctions of all their equipment. Damn it, their tanks are running out of fuel mid-way to battle! Their bombs are rusted!!! What kind of operation are they running FFS? https://twitter.com/ukrpravda_news/status/1497673691395670017 https://twitter.com/ukrpravda_news/status/149767369139567001... Seems like the most likely course of their nuclear attack is, they blow up themselves because the doors rusted shut.
    - csee 5y ago
      Even if 30% of their missiles fail, 70% still gets through. That's about a thousand nukes.