Russia's demography is declining, and global warming will thaw the permafrost and annihilate a ton of infrastructure in the East. Oil prices are high right now,

Russia's demography is declining, and global warming will thaw the permafrost and annihilate a ton of infrastructure in the East. Oil prices are high right now, but European reliance on Russian oil is probably at the highest it will ever be. Putin is not getting younger, and he probably wants to finish the long work of integrating Ukraine into his governance system before he dies. The Russian army, as the last three days have shown, is strong, but not getting stronger with every passing day. It's probably way past its prime. Even though what Putin hated was not the risk of Ukraine joining NATO, but merely Ukraine saying it wanted to join NATO, on the Russian side, it might have been now or never for Putin.