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It appears to be an accurate assessment. I was expecting to see blitzkrieg based on initial reports, but it seems less likely now. In a very real sense, I hope

It appears to be an accurate assessment. I was expecting to see blitzkrieg based on initial reports, but it seems less likely now. In a very real sense, I hope that is the case.

dragontamer 5y ago
If anything, the Russians are moving in too fast. I think the Russians really were going for the 'decapitation', trying to quickly kill or capture the politicians in Kyiv, leaving the Ukrainians leaderless. All signs point to this IMO. Russians have failed in that attempt this far, but it's only day 3. Ukraine has been routing or killing a lot of airborne / paratroopers in and around Kyiv (Russian VDV units). Russia really is going for a quick victory, committing so many airborne units there.
kabes 5y ago
But in all likelihood Russia still wins easily from Ukraine. Even if at a slightly higher cost than hoped
- ceejayoz 5y ago
  The initial war? Quite possibly. The ensuing Western-supported insurgency, under the name of either Zelenskyy the hero or Zelenskyy the martyr? Quite a bit more doubtful.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  Russia has already lost more airplanes than the US did in the entirety of the Iraq war. (USA lost 24 fixed-wing aircraft in all of Iraq 2003 to 2009). I do realize that this is a Ukrainian propaganda, but their claims are incredible: https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1497643063006703620 https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1497643063... 7 aircraft shot down in a singular night, including 2x IL-76 MD just last night alone. Big, slow, 4-wing transport airplanes (carrying either 100+ paratroopers or heavy equipment to the front lines). These aren't drones they're shooting down, Ukrainians continue to threaten the logistical support Russia needs to feed the front lines. We're no longer in "slightly higher cost" territory. We're in "Russians failed to disable Ukrainian's airforce and air-defenses... advanced _ANYWAY_ and are taking heavy losses" territory. Yeah, Russia may win after this. But what's incredible... something completely unthinkable just a few days ago... is that the Ukrainians might actually win conventionally. Russia's failure to disable Ukrainian's air force is already a costly mistake, especially because Russia continues to advance despite being in a state of air-parity with the Ukrainians. -------- I think the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv is in trouble however. But there's video proof of entire convoys being blown up (https://mobile.twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1497573395508174856 https://mobile.twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/149757339550817...) on their way to Kharkiv, definitely proving that the Ukrainian Air Force continues to fly.

It appears to be an accurate assessment. I was expecting to see blitzkrieg based on initial reports, but it seems less likely now. In a very real sense, I hope that is the case.

dragontamer 5y ago

If anything, the Russians are moving in too fast. I think the Russians really were going for the 'decapitation', trying to quickly kill or capture the politicians in Kyiv, leaving the Ukrainians leaderless. All signs point to this IMO. Russians have failed in that attempt this far, but it's only day 3. Ukraine has been routing or killing a lot of airborne / paratroopers in and around Kyiv (Russian VDV units). Russia really is going for a quick victory, committing so many airborne units there.

kabes 5y ago

But in all likelihood Russia still wins easily from Ukraine. Even if at a slightly higher cost than hoped

ceejayoz 5y ago
The initial war? Quite possibly. The ensuing Western-supported insurgency, under the name of either Zelenskyy the hero or Zelenskyy the martyr? Quite a bit more doubtful.
dragontamer 5y ago
Russia has already lost more airplanes than the US did in the entirety of the Iraq war. (USA lost 24 fixed-wing aircraft in all of Iraq 2003 to 2009). I do realize that this is a Ukrainian propaganda, but their claims are incredible: https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1497643063006703620 https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1497643063... 7 aircraft shot down in a singular night, including 2x IL-76 MD just last night alone. Big, slow, 4-wing transport airplanes (carrying either 100+ paratroopers or heavy equipment to the front lines). These aren't drones they're shooting down, Ukrainians continue to threaten the logistical support Russia needs to feed the front lines. We're no longer in "slightly higher cost" territory. We're in "Russians failed to disable Ukrainian's airforce and air-defenses... advanced _ANYWAY_ and are taking heavy losses" territory. Yeah, Russia may win after this. But what's incredible... something completely unthinkable just a few days ago... is that the Ukrainians might actually win conventionally. Russia's failure to disable Ukrainian's air force is already a costly mistake, especially because Russia continues to advance despite being in a state of air-parity with the Ukrainians. -------- I think the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv is in trouble however. But there's video proof of entire convoys being blown up (https://mobile.twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1497573395508174856 https://mobile.twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/149757339550817...) on their way to Kharkiv, definitely proving that the Ukrainian Air Force continues to fly.