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> It'd also hit Europe very hard. Natgas is like a third of European electricity generation and much of the heating. By percentage of their gas imports that co

> It'd also hit Europe very hard. Natgas is like a third of European electricity generation and much of the heating. By percentage of their gas imports that come from Russia: DE, LT, PL, and IT at about 50%; FR and NL at about 20%. * https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/02/15/business/energy-environment/russia-gas-europe-ukraine.html https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/02/15/business/ener... * https://archive.fo/iUJ7j https://archive.fo/iUJ7j By volume, mostly Germany and Italy: * https://i.redd.it/qs12fw6kmdj81.jpg https://i.redd.it/qs12fw6kmdj81.jpg

sharken 5y ago
Which will make it harder for Germany and Italy to enforce effective sanctions towards Russia. Hopefully they will do the right thing and support Ukraine anyway they can. A good indication is going to be if Germany will support the exclusion of Russia from SWIFT: https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/germany-open-to-cutting-russia-off-swift-but-must-weigh-consequences-fin-min https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/germany-open-to-c...
- turbinerneiter 5y ago
  There is a lot of pressure put on Germany right now regarding SWIFT. The exclusion from SWIFT will hit Germany hard, as it will also mean the end of gas delivery. The resulting outages, rising gas prices, the profiteering of the new gas vendors will also have an affect of public support for the sanctions. It will also be a boost for the alternative systems, that China already built. In the end, this might backfire really hard. I do however also not have any better ideas. I'm happy that I'm not the one having to make that decision.
  - asplake 5y ago
    I don’t believe that removal from SWIFT means an end to payments. Much more likely it makes the process considerably more manual, still worthwhile for larger trades. Really it’s the hit to the volume of trades that does the damage. However, they might have to rely on the two parties (or their banks) having a bank in common. That gets harder as the banks themselves get sanctioned. Edit: see correspondent bank https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correspondent_account https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correspondent_account (13 years out of investment banking on the technology side. Never touched SWIFT directly but was involved in more than one in multi-bank project)
988747 5y ago
Poland is just finishing a pipeline to Norway, we'll stop buying any Russian gas at the beginning of 2023. And we also have ability to import LNG through a shipping terminal at Swinoujscie.
- AnonymousPlanet 5y ago
  Norway is on full capacity already. They will not be able to replace Russian gas in volume.
  - 988747 5y ago
    Well, I assume that "full capacity" includes gas they decided to sell to Poland when the construction of Baltic Pipe started. They might not have enough to supply the whole Europe, no argument here.

sharken 5y ago

Which will make it harder for Germany and Italy to enforce effective sanctions towards Russia. Hopefully they will do the right thing and support Ukraine anyway they can. A good indication is going to be if Germany will support the exclusion of Russia from SWIFT: https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/germany-open-to-cutting-russia-off-swift-but-must-weigh-consequences-fin-min https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/germany-open-to-c...

turbinerneiter 5y ago
There is a lot of pressure put on Germany right now regarding SWIFT. The exclusion from SWIFT will hit Germany hard, as it will also mean the end of gas delivery. The resulting outages, rising gas prices, the profiteering of the new gas vendors will also have an affect of public support for the sanctions. It will also be a boost for the alternative systems, that China already built. In the end, this might backfire really hard. I do however also not have any better ideas. I'm happy that I'm not the one having to make that decision.
- asplake 5y ago
  I don’t believe that removal from SWIFT means an end to payments. Much more likely it makes the process considerably more manual, still worthwhile for larger trades. Really it’s the hit to the volume of trades that does the damage. However, they might have to rely on the two parties (or their banks) having a bank in common. That gets harder as the banks themselves get sanctioned. Edit: see correspondent bank https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correspondent_account https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Correspondent_account (13 years out of investment banking on the technology side. Never touched SWIFT directly but was involved in more than one in multi-bank project)

988747 5y ago

Poland is just finishing a pipeline to Norway, we'll stop buying any Russian gas at the beginning of 2023. And we also have ability to import LNG through a shipping terminal at Swinoujscie.

AnonymousPlanet 5y ago
Norway is on full capacity already. They will not be able to replace Russian gas in volume.
- 988747 5y ago
  Well, I assume that "full capacity" includes gas they decided to sell to Poland when the construction of Baltic Pipe started. They might not have enough to supply the whole Europe, no argument here.