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Why would Russia run out of supplies? They have an unlimited and uninterrupted supply line back to Belarus and Russia in multiple directions. I find it more lik

Why would Russia run out of supplies? They have an unlimited and uninterrupted supply line back to Belarus and Russia in multiple directions. I find it more likely the folks in Kiev run out of food in a few days.I support the Ukrainians but the writing is clearly on the wall and it makes more sense the Russians would wait them out and use their air superiority to keep supplies out of Kiev, for example.

dragontamer 5y ago
Russia doesn't even have air superiority yet. Ukrainian air force is blowing up elite paratroopers before they even have a chance to reach the front lines. This entire invasion is already a disaster. Russia still has an advantage but they're taking unnecessary losses already. ------- No Ukrainian city is encircled yet either. Kyiv can't run out of food when it's still safe for supplies to come into the city. Russia needs to establish the basics, and haven't even done that yet. EDIT: it's been like 3 days. It's too soon to expect Russia's military to have a big success yet. Russia's superior weaponry should have a relatively easy time but... Russia is basically trying to perform 4 or 5 simultaneous 'Battle of Fallujah's here simultaneously. Just going all in on major cities around the country simultaneously, where most people in those cities really hate Russians right now.
- A4ET8a8uTh0 5y ago
  It appears to be an accurate assessment. I was expecting to see blitzkrieg based on initial reports, but it seems less likely now. In a very real sense, I hope that is the case.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    If anything, the Russians are moving in too fast. I think the Russians really were going for the 'decapitation', trying to quickly kill or capture the politicians in Kyiv, leaving the Ukrainians leaderless. All signs point to this IMO. Russians have failed in that attempt this far, but it's only day 3. Ukraine has been routing or killing a lot of airborne / paratroopers in and around Kyiv (Russian VDV units). Russia really is going for a quick victory, committing so many airborne units there.
  - kabes 5y ago
    But in all likelihood Russia still wins easily from Ukraine. Even if at a slightly higher cost than hoped
    - ceejayoz 5y ago
      The initial war? Quite possibly. The ensuing Western-supported insurgency, under the name of either Zelenskyy the hero or Zelenskyy the martyr? Quite a bit more doubtful.
    - dragontamer 5y ago
      Russia has already lost more airplanes than the US did in the entirety of the Iraq war. (USA lost 24 fixed-wing aircraft in all of Iraq 2003 to 2009). I do realize that this is a Ukrainian propaganda, but their claims are incredible: https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1497643063006703620 https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1497643063... 7 aircraft shot down in a singular night, including 2x IL-76 MD just last night alone. Big, slow, 4-wing transport airplanes (carrying either 100+ paratroopers or heavy equipment to the front lines). These aren't drones they're shooting down, Ukrainians continue to threaten the logistical support Russia needs to feed the front lines. We're no longer in "slightly higher cost" territory. We're in "Russians failed to disable Ukrainian's airforce and air-defenses... advanced _ANYWAY_ and are taking heavy losses" territory. Yeah, Russia may win after this. But what's incredible... something completely unthinkable just a few days ago... is that the Ukrainians might actually win conventionally. Russia's failure to disable Ukrainian's air force is already a costly mistake, especially because Russia continues to advance despite being in a state of air-parity with the Ukrainians. -------- I think the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv is in trouble however. But there's video proof of entire convoys being blown up (https://mobile.twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1497573395508174856 https://mobile.twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/149757339550817...) on their way to Kharkiv, definitely proving that the Ukrainian Air Force continues to fly.
toast0 5y ago
> Why would Russia run out of supplies? They have an unlimited and uninterrupted supply line back to Belarus and Russia in multiple directions. I'm not an experienced armchair logisticians, but it seems like at this moment: Russia can't bring in supplies to the airfields; Ukraine has anti-tank weapons that I'd expect to work well against supply convoys; Ukraine has a motivated population resistant to the Russians. Maybe the route from Belarus, through the Chernobyl exclusion zone is short enough to avoid interruptions. And if Russia can establish operations at an airstrip, that changes a lot. The route from the south seems disruptable because there's a single bridge chokepoint. (But maybe temporary bridges are viable, again, no logistics experience).
contingencies 5y ago
They have an unlimited and uninterrupted supply line back to Belarus and Russia in multiple directions. It does seem unlikely and I can't confirm specifics but someone posted on another thread that the Ukranians or their allies have apparently disabled all the train lines from Russia to the border to frustrate Russian logistics.

dragontamer 5y ago

Russia doesn't even have air superiority yet. Ukrainian air force is blowing up elite paratroopers before they even have a chance to reach the front lines. This entire invasion is already a disaster. Russia still has an advantage but they're taking unnecessary losses already. ------- No Ukrainian city is encircled yet either. Kyiv can't run out of food when it's still safe for supplies to come into the city. Russia needs to establish the basics, and haven't even done that yet. EDIT: it's been like 3 days. It's too soon to expect Russia's military to have a big success yet. Russia's superior weaponry should have a relatively easy time but... Russia is basically trying to perform 4 or 5 simultaneous 'Battle of Fallujah's here simultaneously. Just going all in on major cities around the country simultaneously, where most people in those cities really hate Russians right now.

A4ET8a8uTh0 5y ago
It appears to be an accurate assessment. I was expecting to see blitzkrieg based on initial reports, but it seems less likely now. In a very real sense, I hope that is the case.
- dragontamer 5y ago
  If anything, the Russians are moving in too fast. I think the Russians really were going for the 'decapitation', trying to quickly kill or capture the politicians in Kyiv, leaving the Ukrainians leaderless. All signs point to this IMO. Russians have failed in that attempt this far, but it's only day 3. Ukraine has been routing or killing a lot of airborne / paratroopers in and around Kyiv (Russian VDV units). Russia really is going for a quick victory, committing so many airborne units there.
- kabes 5y ago
  But in all likelihood Russia still wins easily from Ukraine. Even if at a slightly higher cost than hoped
  - ceejayoz 5y ago
    The initial war? Quite possibly. The ensuing Western-supported insurgency, under the name of either Zelenskyy the hero or Zelenskyy the martyr? Quite a bit more doubtful.
  - dragontamer 5y ago
    Russia has already lost more airplanes than the US did in the entirety of the Iraq war. (USA lost 24 fixed-wing aircraft in all of Iraq 2003 to 2009). I do realize that this is a Ukrainian propaganda, but their claims are incredible: https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1497643063006703620 https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1497643063... 7 aircraft shot down in a singular night, including 2x IL-76 MD just last night alone. Big, slow, 4-wing transport airplanes (carrying either 100+ paratroopers or heavy equipment to the front lines). These aren't drones they're shooting down, Ukrainians continue to threaten the logistical support Russia needs to feed the front lines. We're no longer in "slightly higher cost" territory. We're in "Russians failed to disable Ukrainian's airforce and air-defenses... advanced _ANYWAY_ and are taking heavy losses" territory. Yeah, Russia may win after this. But what's incredible... something completely unthinkable just a few days ago... is that the Ukrainians might actually win conventionally. Russia's failure to disable Ukrainian's air force is already a costly mistake, especially because Russia continues to advance despite being in a state of air-parity with the Ukrainians. -------- I think the Ukrainian city of Kharkiv is in trouble however. But there's video proof of entire convoys being blown up (https://mobile.twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1497573395508174856 https://mobile.twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/149757339550817...) on their way to Kharkiv, definitely proving that the Ukrainian Air Force continues to fly.

toast0 5y ago

> Why would Russia run out of supplies? They have an unlimited and uninterrupted supply line back to Belarus and Russia in multiple directions. I'm not an experienced armchair logisticians, but it seems like at this moment: Russia can't bring in supplies to the airfields; Ukraine has anti-tank weapons that I'd expect to work well against supply convoys; Ukraine has a motivated population resistant to the Russians. Maybe the route from Belarus, through the Chernobyl exclusion zone is short enough to avoid interruptions. And if Russia can establish operations at an airstrip, that changes a lot. The route from the south seems disruptable because there's a single bridge chokepoint. (But maybe temporary bridges are viable, again, no logistics experience).

contingencies 5y ago

They have an unlimited and uninterrupted supply line back to Belarus and Russia in multiple directions. It does seem unlikely and I can't confirm specifics but someone posted on another thread that the Ukranians or their allies have apparently disabled all the train lines from Russia to the border to frustrate Russian logistics.