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No, many people were surprised. However, they weren't paying attention and the invasion has been obvious for months. Dec. 21st: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch
by reducesuffering 5y ago
No, many people were surprised. However, they weren't paying attention and the invasion has been obvious for months. Dec. 21st: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527 https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527
Regarding Lukashenko, I have a contrarian theory that Lukashenko actually considers himself justified in rigging elections, authoritarianism, and Putin-alignment because being a Putin patsy dictator is preferable for the Belarusian people over democratic change that would result in the same fate for Belarus as Ukraine is experiencing. (his thoughts, not mine, although a weak case could be made)
- tlogan 5y agoLukashenko is not doing well health wise. And yes it does seem like is the only one keeping Belarus independent and not Putin’s “dump ground”.
- blast 5y agoThanks for that Twitter link, that's a really good thread from Dec. 21st. I learned a lot from it even now. Although even Alperovitch said "He is unlikely to invade Western Ukraine": https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473366370666614784 https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473366370666614784.