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Am I the only one which is surprised that Putin actually invaided Ukraine? It is true that majority of people in Ukraine are very much against Putin but they ar
by tlogan 5y ago
Am I the only one which is surprised that Putin actually invaided Ukraine? It is true that majority of people in Ukraine are very much against Putin but they are very much connected with Russia so this looks like killing your own people.
So when Lukasenko dies then Russia will invaide Belarus and kill bunch of people who they don’t like Putin?
- w0de0 5y agoWe have had thirty years of peace among the great powers. It’s been seventy years since armies last clashed in conventional, large-scale armored warfare on European soil - or perhaps anywhere. Through these years humanity learned to expect perpetual and cold stalemate as an inevitable paradigm between Russia and the West. Over these generations, humanity has on average become wealthier and more educated and more democratic - all correlates of robust peace between nations. You’re not the only one surprised. I have little doubt that everyone, even the CIA analysts generating grim predictions before the invasion, was at some level unable to believe something like this was possible in 2022. We can still hope to prove it was the absurd strategic mistake our intuition had hoped it was.
- zx85wes 5y agoI just read this : https://twitter.com/i/status/1497252061678813187 https://twitter.com/i/status/1497252061678813187 EXCLUSIVE: I have been given a copy of document issued today by Russian Ministry of Health. It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency & has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate & work. Why doesn't this scare people to death?
- w0de0 5y agoYour question is rhetorical - forgive me. > Why doesn't this scare people to death? The human hierarchy of fear seems sorted by proximity and tractability, not a rational calculus of risk and probability. Abstract threats, or those percieved unavoidable, might inspire only apathy. And indeed, what can I possibly do about rumors of Russia considering nuclear war? I've kept Potassium Iodide stocked since 2014, which seemed practical and easy.
- reducesuffering 5y agoNo, many people were surprised. However, they weren't paying attention and the invasion has been obvious for months. Dec. 21st: https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527 https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473362460673515527 Regarding Lukashenko, I have a contrarian theory that Lukashenko actually considers himself justified in rigging elections, authoritarianism, and Putin-alignment because being a Putin patsy dictator is preferable for the Belarusian people over democratic change that would result in the same fate for Belarus as Ukraine is experiencing. (his thoughts, not mine, although a weak case could be made)
- tlogan 5y agoLukashenko is not doing well health wise. And yes it does seem like is the only one keeping Belarus independent and not Putin’s “dump ground”.
- blast 5y agoThanks for that Twitter link, that's a really good thread from Dec. 21st. I learned a lot from it even now. Although even Alperovitch said "He is unlikely to invade Western Ukraine": https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473366370666614784 https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1473366370666614784.
- pyb 5y agoNot just you, most Ukrainians were surprised too.
- bsd44 5y agoIf you want a short summary of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, I suggest this presentation/speech by John Mearsheimer - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 - he explains it really well.