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>> What will EU get for this? > In the short term, sanctioning an action in a civilized manner that used to be a casus belli. In the long run, not allowing Rus

>> What will EU get for this? > In the short term, sanctioning an action in a civilized manner that used to be a casus belli. In the long run, not allowing Russia to further modernize their military and likely preventing a nuclear war by not emboldening Putin to attack Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland or Poland at some point in the future because of previous inaction. The EU nomenklatura gets to pat themselves on the back, and that's about it. How will sanctions prevent Russia from "further moderniz[ing] their military"? They can probably get whatever tech they need from China now, if they were previously getting it from the West. How will sanctions prevent "a nuclear war by not emboldening Putin to attack Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland or Poland at some point in the future because of previous inaction"? If Putin attacks another country, there won't be any more sanctions to enact, and these actions have demonstrated a fundamental unwillingness to engage militarily (e.g. Germany wouldn't even send Ukraine even small guns, so instead they promised * 5000 hats*, which they also apparently failed to deliver).

jonathanstrange 5y ago
> How will sanctions prevent Russia from "further moderniz[ing] their military"? They can probably get whatever tech they need from China now Modernizing a military is extremely expensive and Russia will not be able to afford it. This is crucial, given that Russia is waging aggressive wars within Europe.
- tablespoon 5y ago
  > Modernizing a military is extremely expensive and Russia will not be able to afford it. This is crucial, given that Russia is waging aggressive wars within Europe. IIRC, Russia gets most of its money from selling gas and oil. If Europe won't buy it, China will. I don't think this will really affect what the Russian government can afford.
  - jonathanstrange 5y ago
    It will substantially affect what the Russian government can afford. There is no doubt about it.
    - tablespoon 5y ago
      > It will substantially affect what the Russian government can afford. There is no doubt about it. No, there is doubt about it. There's a lot of bluster about the effectiveness of sanctions, but frankly, I'm skeptical. It sounds like politicians puffing up the actions they're willing to take.
      - jonathanstrange 5y ago
        > * It sounds like politicians puffing up the actions they're willing to take.* I agree with that. Maybe I should have said that there is no other civilized response available than imposing heavy sanctions. Even a slightly weaker Russian military and some impact on Russian oligarchs may be better than nothing to prevent future misjudgments about the prospects of waging 19th Century territorial wars in the 21 Century.
        tablespoon 5y ago
        > Maybe I should have said that there is no other civilized response available than imposing heavy sanctions. That's kind of the problem, though. The catalog of "civilized responses" may not be up to the task of responding to these events, and being constrained to them prevents effective responses. > Even a slightly weaker Russian military and some impact on Russian oligarchs may be better than nothing to prevent future misjudgments about the prospects of waging 19th Century territorial wars in the 21 Century. Sometimes "better than nothing" rounds down to nothing. You might end up having more "19th Century territorial wars" because you let the war itself. IMHO, the only thing right now that has a realistic chance of preventing another one of these wars from happening is a military failure by Russia. Right now that depends on the Ukrainian state acting on its own without much support from Europe.
azeirah 5y ago
I don't know how much this will influence possibilities of Russia buying military equipment from China, but China officially stated today that they don't support this invasion. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-26/china-distances-itself-from-russia-calls-for-halt-to-violence https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-26/china-dis...

jonathanstrange 5y ago

> How will sanctions prevent Russia from "further moderniz[ing] their military"? They can probably get whatever tech they need from China now Modernizing a military is extremely expensive and Russia will not be able to afford it. This is crucial, given that Russia is waging aggressive wars within Europe.

tablespoon 5y ago
> Modernizing a military is extremely expensive and Russia will not be able to afford it. This is crucial, given that Russia is waging aggressive wars within Europe. IIRC, Russia gets most of its money from selling gas and oil. If Europe won't buy it, China will. I don't think this will really affect what the Russian government can afford.
- jonathanstrange 5y ago
  It will substantially affect what the Russian government can afford. There is no doubt about it.
  - tablespoon 5y ago
    > It will substantially affect what the Russian government can afford. There is no doubt about it. No, there is doubt about it. There's a lot of bluster about the effectiveness of sanctions, but frankly, I'm skeptical. It sounds like politicians puffing up the actions they're willing to take.
    - jonathanstrange 5y ago
      > * It sounds like politicians puffing up the actions they're willing to take.* I agree with that. Maybe I should have said that there is no other civilized response available than imposing heavy sanctions. Even a slightly weaker Russian military and some impact on Russian oligarchs may be better than nothing to prevent future misjudgments about the prospects of waging 19th Century territorial wars in the 21 Century.
      - tablespoon 5y ago
        > Maybe I should have said that there is no other civilized response available than imposing heavy sanctions. That's kind of the problem, though. The catalog of "civilized responses" may not be up to the task of responding to these events, and being constrained to them prevents effective responses. > Even a slightly weaker Russian military and some impact on Russian oligarchs may be better than nothing to prevent future misjudgments about the prospects of waging 19th Century territorial wars in the 21 Century. Sometimes "better than nothing" rounds down to nothing. You might end up having more "19th Century territorial wars" because you let the war itself. IMHO, the only thing right now that has a realistic chance of preventing another one of these wars from happening is a military failure by Russia. Right now that depends on the Ukrainian state acting on its own without much support from Europe.

azeirah 5y ago

I don't know how much this will influence possibilities of Russia buying military equipment from China, but China officially stated today that they don't support this invasion. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-26/china-distances-itself-from-russia-calls-for-halt-to-violence https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-26/china-dis...