7 ms·

I am wondering if this automatically means Russia will switch off gas supplies? Understandably, how Europe will pay for Russian gas when SWIFT is switched off,

by forcer 5y ago

I am wondering if this automatically means Russia will switch off gas supplies? Understandably, how Europe will pay for Russian gas when SWIFT is switched off, and probably Russia won't be sending gas for free?

askmike 5y ago
SWIFT is just a messaging system, they can probably still use Telex which is the precursor to SWIFT.
- megous 5y ago
  No, I think they'll have to go a bit more back to the past, and carry gold in chests using coach and fours.
  - bushbaba 5y ago
    Why not crypto?
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
- treis 5y ago
  I'm reasonably sure that the point is not to make Russia use Telex instead of SWIFT. The point is to stop Russia from transacting in dollars.
  - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
    > the point is not to make Russia use Telex instead of SWIFT I believe it is. Nobody is threatening sanctioning Russia's energy sector à la Iran.
    - treis 5y ago
      I'm reasonably sure that those calling for Russia's ban from SWIFT are doing so precisely for that reason. They may not understand that banning them for SWIFT doesn't exactly accomplish that, but that's the motivation for the call.
      - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
        > may not understand that banning them for SWIFT doesn't exactly accomplish that There are numerous workarounds. Most involve Russia submitting to China. Given how unpredictable Putin’s become, that’s preferable to them being a regional power.
- digianarchist 5y ago
  Or CIPS which will likely undercut this attempt of isolating Russia’s financial system.
  - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
    > Or CIPS which will likely undercut this attempt of isolating Russia’s financial system This is almost expected. The calculation being that Russia is safer as a Chinese vassal than a regional power. Settling via CIPS is also more burdensome and thus expensive than settling via SWIFT.
dtx1 5y ago
He might, though that would also cost russia dearly because all countries like germany that are dependent on russian gas will a) be royally pissed and b) make sure they lower their dependence on russian gas in the future. And russias economy is really dependent on their natural recourcess export
- wronglebowski 5y ago
  I do wonder just how much German sentiment has shifted. From the leaked clips of a high ranking German officer saying "Putin just wants respect" before the war. Now seeing a large shift amongst those I follow on twitter in German who were previous anti-action. Assuming SWIFT access is cut, and then the Natural Gas supplies are turned off is there another escalation back? Assuming the US/EU can rally their resources how do they mount a quick recovery from the loss of natural gas which will certainly be devastating. Even if the Nuclear plants in process of decommissioning are reversed(if possible) I'm not sure how the EU gets through the next six months without a ton of pain.
  - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
    > Assuming SWIFT access is cut, and then the Natural Gas supplies are turned off is there another escalation back? Sure. We could sanction their oil and gas industry. Like we've done to Iran. There's also a whole world of plausibly deniable black ops stuff we could do to mess with their infrastructure.
  - atlex2 5y ago
    Winter is almost over, that helps a lot.
    - azeirah 5y ago
      The winter here in the Netherlands is also really mild. I'm in a 4th floor apartment with the main room facing the sun with all windows. if I clothed a bit warmer than normal I could go without gas until winder ends. Of course not everyone lives in a small apartment facing the sun but still.
VBprogrammer 5y ago
Seems like Putin missed a trick by not kicking this off in November. With a whole winter of gas supply issues in store the EU would be walking on egg shells even more than they have been. Regardless, it seems like a small price to pay for solidarity with the Ukrainian people.
- netsharc 5y ago
  Also, it's almost spring... Although I did wake up to snow on the ground this morning. Seems like Putin didn't want to piss off Xi by starting a war before/during Xi's "look at how great we are" Olympic Games.
  - mmastrac 5y ago
    I felt like this year's games disappeared in all the news: pandemic, truckers, Ukraine
    - dgut 5y ago
      To be fair... Winter Olympics don't typically get much attention, this year was an exception and it actually got _more_ attention.
  - hh3k0 5y ago
    > Seems like Putin didn't want to piss off Xi by starting a war before/during Xi's "look at how great we are" Olympic Games. And it'd seem that Putin favors dates like 22.02.2022 for some strange reason. Russia launched their full-scale invasion of Georgia on 08.08.2008, too.
    - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
      Dear god, if this all turns out in the end to be the fancy of some Rasputinesque numerologist with the Kremlin's ear...
    - HWR_14 5y ago
      Also explains why he had to go big this invasion. There is no march 33 to look forward to.
sidewndr46 5y ago
The same way the Soviet Union paid for Western goods. Shipments of gold, or exchange of goods of equivalent value.
ridaj 5y ago
Yes I think that's the idea and the reason why it's taking a while to set up. Maybe they'll take bitcoin? It will be a test of whether this can really be a backup form of payment against the will of states.
3np 5y ago
I’m sure there are other channels but I’m pretty sure cryptocurrency markets have enough liquidity to prop up gas payments. If this goes through and BTC price starts spiking, I’d interpret that as a signal that it is happening, which would be a validation for Bitcoin playing a significant role in avoiding banking restrictions.
rectang 5y ago
If Europe stops buying Russian gas (a big if, and something that might happen later rather than sooner), are there other countries which would buy it? China, for instance?
- EEBio 5y ago
  Probably, but this would hurt Russia immensely. Currently there is not much infrastructure to support delivery of that much more gas to China, so it would need to be built and that would probably take years. At the same time, it would hurt Europe more than Russia in the short-term. (But it might be really worth it in long term)
  - bilbo0s 5y ago
    that would probably take years. We underestimate Chinese productivity at our own peril. While we deal with this Ukraine/Russia thing, it would be unwise to not wargame out some 'humor me' scenarios. "I know the Chinese could never build that much infrastructure in the short term. But 'humor me', what if they can?"
    - EEBio 5y ago
      If they can build it, they still do not have the demand for that much extra gas, probably just little. The Chinese government is despicably authoritarian, but unlike Putin, they are not crazy and they are playing it long-term. They won't condemn Russian invasion too harshly, but they don't want to break energy supply chains from West to help out a not-exactly-friendly state (just an enemy of an enemy).

by forcer 5y ago

askmike 5y ago

SWIFT is just a messaging system, they can probably still use Telex which is the precursor to SWIFT.

megous 5y ago
No, I think they'll have to go a bit more back to the past, and carry gold in chests using coach and fours.
- bushbaba 5y ago
  Why not crypto?
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
treis 5y ago
I'm reasonably sure that the point is not to make Russia use Telex instead of SWIFT. The point is to stop Russia from transacting in dollars.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > the point is not to make Russia use Telex instead of SWIFT I believe it is. Nobody is threatening sanctioning Russia's energy sector à la Iran.
  - treis 5y ago
    I'm reasonably sure that those calling for Russia's ban from SWIFT are doing so precisely for that reason. They may not understand that banning them for SWIFT doesn't exactly accomplish that, but that's the motivation for the call.
    - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
      > may not understand that banning them for SWIFT doesn't exactly accomplish that There are numerous workarounds. Most involve Russia submitting to China. Given how unpredictable Putin’s become, that’s preferable to them being a regional power.
digianarchist 5y ago
Or CIPS which will likely undercut this attempt of isolating Russia’s financial system.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > Or CIPS which will likely undercut this attempt of isolating Russia’s financial system This is almost expected. The calculation being that Russia is safer as a Chinese vassal than a regional power. Settling via CIPS is also more burdensome and thus expensive than settling via SWIFT.

dtx1 5y ago

He might, though that would also cost russia dearly because all countries like germany that are dependent on russian gas will a) be royally pissed and b) make sure they lower their dependence on russian gas in the future. And russias economy is really dependent on their natural recourcess export

wronglebowski 5y ago
I do wonder just how much German sentiment has shifted. From the leaked clips of a high ranking German officer saying "Putin just wants respect" before the war. Now seeing a large shift amongst those I follow on twitter in German who were previous anti-action. Assuming SWIFT access is cut, and then the Natural Gas supplies are turned off is there another escalation back? Assuming the US/EU can rally their resources how do they mount a quick recovery from the loss of natural gas which will certainly be devastating. Even if the Nuclear plants in process of decommissioning are reversed(if possible) I'm not sure how the EU gets through the next six months without a ton of pain.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > Assuming SWIFT access is cut, and then the Natural Gas supplies are turned off is there another escalation back? Sure. We could sanction their oil and gas industry. Like we've done to Iran. There's also a whole world of plausibly deniable black ops stuff we could do to mess with their infrastructure.
- atlex2 5y ago
  Winter is almost over, that helps a lot.
  - azeirah 5y ago
    The winter here in the Netherlands is also really mild. I'm in a 4th floor apartment with the main room facing the sun with all windows. if I clothed a bit warmer than normal I could go without gas until winder ends. Of course not everyone lives in a small apartment facing the sun but still.

VBprogrammer 5y ago

Seems like Putin missed a trick by not kicking this off in November. With a whole winter of gas supply issues in store the EU would be walking on egg shells even more than they have been. Regardless, it seems like a small price to pay for solidarity with the Ukrainian people.

netsharc 5y ago
Also, it's almost spring... Although I did wake up to snow on the ground this morning. Seems like Putin didn't want to piss off Xi by starting a war before/during Xi's "look at how great we are" Olympic Games.
- mmastrac 5y ago
  I felt like this year's games disappeared in all the news: pandemic, truckers, Ukraine
  - dgut 5y ago
    To be fair... Winter Olympics don't typically get much attention, this year was an exception and it actually got _more_ attention.
- hh3k0 5y ago
  > Seems like Putin didn't want to piss off Xi by starting a war before/during Xi's "look at how great we are" Olympic Games. And it'd seem that Putin favors dates like 22.02.2022 for some strange reason. Russia launched their full-scale invasion of Georgia on 08.08.2008, too.
  - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
    Dear god, if this all turns out in the end to be the fancy of some Rasputinesque numerologist with the Kremlin's ear...
  - HWR_14 5y ago
    Also explains why he had to go big this invasion. There is no march 33 to look forward to.

sidewndr46 5y ago

The same way the Soviet Union paid for Western goods. Shipments of gold, or exchange of goods of equivalent value.

ridaj 5y ago

Yes I think that's the idea and the reason why it's taking a while to set up. Maybe they'll take bitcoin? It will be a test of whether this can really be a backup form of payment against the will of states.

3np 5y ago

I’m sure there are other channels but I’m pretty sure cryptocurrency markets have enough liquidity to prop up gas payments. If this goes through and BTC price starts spiking, I’d interpret that as a signal that it is happening, which would be a validation for Bitcoin playing a significant role in avoiding banking restrictions.

rectang 5y ago

If Europe stops buying Russian gas (a big if, and something that might happen later rather than sooner), are there other countries which would buy it? China, for instance?

EEBio 5y ago
Probably, but this would hurt Russia immensely. Currently there is not much infrastructure to support delivery of that much more gas to China, so it would need to be built and that would probably take years. At the same time, it would hurt Europe more than Russia in the short-term. (But it might be really worth it in long term)
- bilbo0s 5y ago
  that would probably take years. We underestimate Chinese productivity at our own peril. While we deal with this Ukraine/Russia thing, it would be unwise to not wargame out some 'humor me' scenarios. "I know the Chinese could never build that much infrastructure in the short term. But 'humor me', what if they can?"
  - EEBio 5y ago
    If they can build it, they still do not have the demand for that much extra gas, probably just little. The Chinese government is despicably authoritarian, but unlike Putin, they are not crazy and they are playing it long-term. They won't condemn Russian invasion too harshly, but they don't want to break energy supply chains from West to help out a not-exactly-friendly state (just an enemy of an enemy).