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Cutting Russia off from SWIFT a “matter of days” – euro zone central banker

110 points by 323 5y ago

300bps 5y ago
https://archive.is/22B4o https://archive.is/22B4o
forcer 5y ago
I am wondering if this automatically means Russia will switch off gas supplies? Understandably, how Europe will pay for Russian gas when SWIFT is switched off, and probably Russia won't be sending gas for free?
- askmike 5y ago
  SWIFT is just a messaging system, they can probably still use Telex which is the precursor to SWIFT.
  - megous 5y ago
    No, I think they'll have to go a bit more back to the past, and carry gold in chests using coach and fours.
    - bushbaba 5y ago
      Why not crypto?
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
  - treis 5y ago
    I'm reasonably sure that the point is not to make Russia use Telex instead of SWIFT. The point is to stop Russia from transacting in dollars.
    - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
      > the point is not to make Russia use Telex instead of SWIFT I believe it is. Nobody is threatening sanctioning Russia's energy sector à la Iran.
      - treis 5y ago
        I'm reasonably sure that those calling for Russia's ban from SWIFT are doing so precisely for that reason. They may not understand that banning them for SWIFT doesn't exactly accomplish that, but that's the motivation for the call.
        JumpCrisscross 5y ago
        > may not understand that banning them for SWIFT doesn't exactly accomplish that There are numerous workarounds. Most involve Russia submitting to China. Given how unpredictable Putin’s become, that’s preferable to them being a regional power.
  - digianarchist 5y ago
    Or CIPS which will likely undercut this attempt of isolating Russia’s financial system.
    - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
      > Or CIPS which will likely undercut this attempt of isolating Russia’s financial system This is almost expected. The calculation being that Russia is safer as a Chinese vassal than a regional power. Settling via CIPS is also more burdensome and thus expensive than settling via SWIFT.
- dtx1 5y ago
  He might, though that would also cost russia dearly because all countries like germany that are dependent on russian gas will a) be royally pissed and b) make sure they lower their dependence on russian gas in the future. And russias economy is really dependent on their natural recourcess export
  - wronglebowski 5y ago
    I do wonder just how much German sentiment has shifted. From the leaked clips of a high ranking German officer saying "Putin just wants respect" before the war. Now seeing a large shift amongst those I follow on twitter in German who were previous anti-action. Assuming SWIFT access is cut, and then the Natural Gas supplies are turned off is there another escalation back? Assuming the US/EU can rally their resources how do they mount a quick recovery from the loss of natural gas which will certainly be devastating. Even if the Nuclear plants in process of decommissioning are reversed(if possible) I'm not sure how the EU gets through the next six months without a ton of pain.
    - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
      > Assuming SWIFT access is cut, and then the Natural Gas supplies are turned off is there another escalation back? Sure. We could sanction their oil and gas industry. Like we've done to Iran. There's also a whole world of plausibly deniable black ops stuff we could do to mess with their infrastructure.
    - atlex2 5y ago
      Winter is almost over, that helps a lot.
      - azeirah 5y ago
        The winter here in the Netherlands is also really mild. I'm in a 4th floor apartment with the main room facing the sun with all windows. if I clothed a bit warmer than normal I could go without gas until winder ends. Of course not everyone lives in a small apartment facing the sun but still.
- VBprogrammer 5y ago
  Seems like Putin missed a trick by not kicking this off in November. With a whole winter of gas supply issues in store the EU would be walking on egg shells even more than they have been. Regardless, it seems like a small price to pay for solidarity with the Ukrainian people.
  - netsharc 5y ago
    Also, it's almost spring... Although I did wake up to snow on the ground this morning. Seems like Putin didn't want to piss off Xi by starting a war before/during Xi's "look at how great we are" Olympic Games.
    - mmastrac 5y ago
      I felt like this year's games disappeared in all the news: pandemic, truckers, Ukraine
      - dgut 5y ago
        To be fair... Winter Olympics don't typically get much attention, this year was an exception and it actually got _more_ attention.
    - hh3k0 5y ago
      > Seems like Putin didn't want to piss off Xi by starting a war before/during Xi's "look at how great we are" Olympic Games. And it'd seem that Putin favors dates like 22.02.2022 for some strange reason. Russia launched their full-scale invasion of Georgia on 08.08.2008, too.
      - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
        Dear god, if this all turns out in the end to be the fancy of some Rasputinesque numerologist with the Kremlin's ear...
      - HWR_14 5y ago
        Also explains why he had to go big this invasion. There is no march 33 to look forward to.
- sidewndr46 5y ago
  The same way the Soviet Union paid for Western goods. Shipments of gold, or exchange of goods of equivalent value.
- ridaj 5y ago
  Yes I think that's the idea and the reason why it's taking a while to set up. Maybe they'll take bitcoin? It will be a test of whether this can really be a backup form of payment against the will of states.
- 3np 5y ago
  I’m sure there are other channels but I’m pretty sure cryptocurrency markets have enough liquidity to prop up gas payments. If this goes through and BTC price starts spiking, I’d interpret that as a signal that it is happening, which would be a validation for Bitcoin playing a significant role in avoiding banking restrictions.
- rectang 5y ago
  If Europe stops buying Russian gas (a big if, and something that might happen later rather than sooner), are there other countries which would buy it? China, for instance?
  - EEBio 5y ago
    Probably, but this would hurt Russia immensely. Currently there is not much infrastructure to support delivery of that much more gas to China, so it would need to be built and that would probably take years. At the same time, it would hurt Europe more than Russia in the short-term. (But it might be really worth it in long term)
    - bilbo0s 5y ago
      that would probably take years. We underestimate Chinese productivity at our own peril. While we deal with this Ukraine/Russia thing, it would be unwise to not wargame out some 'humor me' scenarios. "I know the Chinese could never build that much infrastructure in the short term. But 'humor me', what if they can?"
      - EEBio 5y ago
        If they can build it, they still do not have the demand for that much extra gas, probably just little. The Chinese government is despicably authoritarian, but unlike Putin, they are not crazy and they are playing it long-term. They won't condemn Russian invasion too harshly, but they don't want to break energy supply chains from West to help out a not-exactly-friendly state (just an enemy of an enemy).
neverminder 5y ago
- ridaj 5y ago
  Maybe give safe harbor to ransomware operators who target Russia in the same way that Russia gives safe harbor to ransomware operators as long as they don't operate domestically https://krebsonsecurity.com/2021/05/try-this-one-weird-trick-russian-hackers-hate/ https://krebsonsecurity.com/2021/05/try-this-one-weird-trick...
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]
  - foverzar 5y ago
    So basically nothing would change, it's not like it wasn't the case up until now.
    - ridaj 5y ago
      Source?
- baal80spam 5y ago
  Reminder: Russians have nukes.
  - survirtual 5y ago
    At some point the world needs to stop giving their lunch money to the bully and take a stand.
    - zx85wes 5y ago
  - neverminder 5y ago
    What do nukes have to do with FAANG, a bunch of private companies, cancelling their products and services? I'm sure they can come up with something from the fine print in their T&Cs to justify that. This is the only way that is not direct military action to hit them hard. So why not?
sAbakumoff 5y ago
good. Then shut down the airspace for all Russian planes in EU, close ship waters and seize money of all Putin's friends.
Friday_ 5y ago
What will EU get for this?
- jonathanstrange 5y ago
  In the short term, sanctioning an action in a civilized manner that used to be a casus belli. In the long run, not allowing Russia to further modernize their military and likely preventing a nuclear war by not emboldening Putin to attack Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland or Poland at some point in the future because of previous inaction.
  - Friday_ 5y ago
    Wait did you understand the question, what will EU get? EU is not afraid of russians or nukes.
    - jonathanstrange 5y ago
      You don't see how sanctioning an action that in the past used to be reason for war and likely preventing nuclear war in the future is something positive? Geopolitics is not your strength, is it? Well, to make it simple for you, EU gets a weak Russian military in the future, which is very desirable. Edit: Oh, I see. I've replied to another 4 day old account. What a coincidence!
      - Friday_ 5y ago
        As i said EU is not worried about Russians. What else?
        jonathanstrange 5y ago
        The EU is not worried about Russia? From where on earth did you get this bizarre and obviously false view? Every Eastern EU country is extremely worried about Russia right now and NATO has sent reinforcements to them.
hourislate 5y ago
Bankrupt Russia's oligarchs and Putin will be dead within a week. Just saying.....
jl6 5y ago
We should not make offensive moves - down that path lies further escalation. We need to isolate Russia using non-violence. Primarily, refusing to buy their oil and gas. Remote bricking all iOS devices in Russia would be an offensive escalation because it would directly harm Russian assets. Barring Russia from SWIFT… does that amount to a refusal to trade with them? That feels appropriately non-violent, but I’m unsure exactly what it would involve.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > Remote bricking all iOS devices in Russia would be an offensive escalation because it would directly harm Russian assets It's still nonviolent.
  - mukesh610 5y ago
    So right to repair right out of the window?
    - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
      > right to repair right out of the window? This...never existed in a military/geopolitical context? Does Ukraine get to sue Russia for materiel it's blowing up?
      - deleted 5y ago
        [deleted]
      - mukesh610 5y ago
        I don't see the connection, but I know of a bunch of people who'd be pretty mad about how a corporation can remotely cut off an entire country's digital access.
        JumpCrisscross 5y ago
        > know of a bunch of people who'd be pretty mad about how a corporation can remotely cut off an entire country's digital access Of course. Same with SWIFT cut-off. Doing it in a way that is not arbitrary would be key. (I don't know how one would do that. There is no precedent for that type of action, and it is not being seriously considered by senior policymakers.)
bladegash 5y ago
Have to wonder what the end goal is here. Putin is human, but he’s also pretty calculating in his actions. People have mentioned before China’s competing system to SWIFT and this move potentially being to their benefit. You also have the EU and US spinning up their wheels against a boogeyman, which in some ways, has the effect of strengthening and/or testing their relationships. In other ways, it forces the West into really tough and expensive policy positions, with plenty of opportunity to damage relationships as well. Perhaps it really is just as simple as they wanted to prevent Ukraine from joining the EU/NATO. Maybe it’s a mixture of all the above. Blinken mentioned it - and I agree - that I don’t see whatever plan that’s currently underway as intentioned to stop at Ukraine.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > have to wonder what the end goal is here Convince the oligarchs they're richer with Putin dead than alive.
  - azeirah 5y ago
    I think bladegash was talking about what Putin's goal was.
    - kthejoker2 5y ago
      Convince the oligarchs they're richer with Ukraine out of NATO than in it, because gas?
- lomereiter 5y ago
  My wild guess is that Putin's goal has always been cleansing the power circles of the oligarchs who got there in the 1990s, and now that he's running out of time as he's getting old, he needs help in that from the West. Now he might be betting that the sanctions will mostly target these oligarchs and make the country _really_ unattractive for them, whereas an average Russian anyway has no assets abroad and doesn't travel much, and therefore won't notice the difference, as energy and food are abundant domestically. If that's his plan, there should be no need to go beyond Ukraine.
throwaway290 5y ago
Just donated US$150 to UNHCR’s Ukraine program while I still can. Don’t know if online bank card payments will still work after SWIFT is disabled for us. If you care, you could do that too.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > don’t know if bank card payments will still work after SWIFT is disabled Russia is being threatened with cut-off, not Ukraine.
  - Chirael 5y ago
    I think the implication is that throwaway290 is in Russia
    - throwaway290 5y ago
      Even though they affect me personally, I understand sanctions directed at Russia as a whole more so than sanctions that hurt innocent people who happen to live in territories occupied by Russia/separatists. (Back when Crimea was annexed, everybody with billing address there had their existing banking cards shut off; freelancers with addresses in Crimea, Donbas etc. are long banned from online marketplaces. It did not affect me, but I never understood the intent.) Luckily, I don't have my own family to support.
  - throwaway290 5y ago
    Exactly.
- Normille 5y ago
  Remember when the rest of the world imposed punitive sanctions on the US after they invaded Iraq and Afghanistan? No. Me neither.
JumpCrisscross 5y ago
There are two purposes to sanctions. The first is to harm the enemy. Cutting Russia off from SWIFT does that. The second is to reduce moral culpability. The idea that we shouldn't let our work, our infrastructure, be used to further aims we find detestable. The former is an exercise in balancing costs and benefits. In this, the evidence for cutting Russia off is mixed--they will likely develop a vassal relationship with China that offsets the cost enough to let the regime survive. The latter is an exercise in measuring evil and involvement. In this, the evidence is fairly clear. Adding an automatic off-switch triggered by total withdrawal from all of Ukraine, including Crimea, or Putin's surrender to a NATO member (or evidence of his death) would give the whole thing a sharper edge.
- 323 5y ago
  I'm pretty sure Russia is close to boiling over this. If the tanks roll through Kyiv and start shooting inside the city we might see massive protests in Russia.
  - zx85wes 5y ago
    I agree. His regime will be in a corner. What could happen then worries me to no end. We're in uncharted territory. We've never pushed things this far with a nuclear power.
    - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
      > We've never pushed things this far with a nuclear power The USSR literally collapsed. Pakistan has danced with a new regime a decade. We're in highly, highly risky territory. But it's not unprecedented.
    - rswail 5y ago
      In what way have "we" pushed things here. Ukraine voted for independence back in the early 90s by an overwhelming majority in all areas, including those currently "recognized" by Russia. Ukrainians want all the benefits of EU membership, and they gave up their nuclear weapons on the promise of security from Europe, the US, and Russia. Putin's "history" is nonsense.
mywacaday 5y ago
Why the wait? It only allows funds to move in the meantime. If it's going to be cut off there should be no warning.
- riskable 5y ago
  It's just your classic, "it's not so simple" problem. SWIFT has endpoints just like any other protocol. Someone's job right now is to compile a list of endpoints (aka banks) that are to be cut off and then it'll be someone else's job to approve that list. Then there will be negotiating and agreements and whatnot.
antb1235 5y ago
My bet... Everything just settles via Armenia, Egypt, and China via netting agreements... No impact.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > via Armenia, Egypt, and China via netting agreements Nobody argues alternatives don't exist. Russia will pivot to China. But for all our gripes with Beijing, they're a more rational regime than Putin's. (See: North Korea.) Russia being their vassal is better than the nonsense they are today. And China's systems are more expensive than SWIFT, which will reduce Russia's proceeds.
  - w0de0 5y ago
    Indeed, I see your point. China’s reaction to this crisis has elucidated for me the fact that its government is a complex institution with separate power bases (cf. Putin’s lonely autocracy). It’s clear that at least some of those nodes earnestly hold the principle of always-sacrosanct sovereignty which is a cornerstone of China’s foreign policy (and of its criticism of the West), and are not pleased with the hypocrisy now inherent in their alliance.
  - pyb 5y ago
    Yes, it seems that Russia needs China way more than China needs Russia.
  - rswail 5y ago
    China is an empire on the rise, Russia is one in the throes of death. Russia will eventually have to choose between Europe and China.
ck2 5y ago
This smells like a delay to let the wealthy get their money out of Russia, etc. However that is not a bad thing if they can drain Russian bank? Based on that other article, SWIFT cutoff will only cost Russia 5% GNP ( https://archive.today/XqZzK https://archive.today/XqZzK ) The far bigger better news to me is France started seizing physical assets like I hoped all the countries would start doing, if we aren't going to put boots on the ground then the "blood" must be from assets even if Russia counters and seizes foreign assets too. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/26/france-seizes-russian-cargo-ship-channel/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/26/france-sei...
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- dogma1138 5y ago
  More like a delay to get everything worked out there isn’t a button to push to cut a country off SWIFT each institution with access to SWIFTnet would have to do it on their end. Russia has huge foreign currency reserves this is the main goal of this sanction it would prevent them from using their reserves to sustain their own economy whilst their own currency collapses.
rvba 5y ago
Despite what people think kicking Russia from swift is not good. This means that lots of companies who sold to Russia will not get paid. Europe will also jave problems to pay for gas: paying with gold is a bad idea. Oligarchs will buy from Chinese resellers. Abetter option would be go ban companies from doing business in Russia. Bankrupting European and US comapnies that sold to Russia (and now wait for money) wont help. Also banning fron swoft means that the big companies will still find ways to trade. Trade with them is not forbidden. I can easly see them asking to send money to some third party bank (China, North Korea) who will act as an intermediary.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > Bankrupting European and US comapnies that sold to Russia (and now wait for money) won't help Why? They're culpable. I'm going to lose money on my investments in Russia. Shame on me.
  - rvba 5y ago
    If you sell lipstick or Gucci bags to Russia you probably get paid 30-90 days after delivery. Same for iphones or cars. Even if you sell Steam games it might take few days until you receive the money (assuming you dont park it in Russia for tax reasons). An Iran style ban on sales is much better than this SWIFT blockade.
    - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
      > An Iran style ban on sales is much better than this SWIFT blockade I’m advocating for placing the Russian central bank on the SDN list. Hell of a lot more than either. We could tolerate rations against the Nazis but can’t stomach a few months of invoices lost?
      - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
        WOOP! We got it!
IdontRememberIt 5y ago
Why not punishing only the government: cancel all visas to the people working in the gov and especially their family. So no more rich gov kids in Western universities, etc. I find a little unfair to punish people to push them in the streets and have them arrested, tortured or "administratively" punished (remember what happen after the Turkey coup in 2016? Military were punished but also many people working in the public sector.)
- jacquesm 5y ago
  When you start a war of aggression you calculate in that there will be sanctions against your own people. This is first and foremost on Putin. Not that he cares, and probably not that this will be a popular sentiment in Russia. The alternative to sanctions is a shooting war, it is probably a good idea to put as many steps in between that point and now as we can, who knows, there might be someone with a change of heart high enough up in the Russian ranks that it makes a difference.
- woodruffw 5y ago
  Sanctions are a form of economic warfare: they are intended to make broad swaths of the population suffer, with the goal of producing general discontent. A discontented civilian population means an unpopular war, and unpopular wars are harder to wage. Or so the theory goes.
  - IdontRememberIt 5y ago
    I can only see a list of suffering people without expected outcome: North Korea, Venezuela, Iran, URSS, Cuba, etc. (Genuine question to History geeks) Do we have an exemple of mass sanctions on a country that worked? Why are we repeating strategies that do not seem to work? Theses sanctions seems to be designed to only short term please the people/voters/journalists of the sanctioning countries but are terrible to the sanctioned country/people long term without solving anything.
    - woodruffw 5y ago
      I'm not enough of a history buff to say whether sanctions are consistently successful. But I will point out that the point of (broad) sanctions isn't to win wars: it's to punish governments by punishing their people, who are then expected to pressure the government to acquiesce. Among the targets of US sanctions in the last 50 years, contemporary Russia is somewhat unique: it has a relatively large and urbanized middle class, one that's used to the benefits of global trade and cheap European travel. Sanctions that hurt those people seem, on face value, more likely to impact Putin's decision making than e.g. sanctions on North Korean peasant farmers.
chinathrow 5y ago
This is really interesting to me. The "matter of days" matters a lot. Pull the plug NOW.
rdxm 5y ago
tlogan 5y ago
Am I the only one which is surprised that Putin actually invaided Ukraine? It is true that majority of people in Ukraine are very much against Putin but they are very much connected with Russia so this looks like killing your own people. So when Lukasenko dies then Russia will invaide Belarus and kill bunch of people who they don’t like Putin?
- w0de0 5y ago
  We have had thirty years of peace among the great powers. It’s been seventy years since armies last clashed in conventional, large-scale armored warfare on European soil - or perhaps anywhere. Through these years humanity learned to expect perpetual and cold stalemate as an inevitable paradigm between Russia and the West. Over these generations, humanity has on average become wealthier and more educated and more democratic - all correlates of robust peace between nations. You’re not the only one surprised. I have little doubt that everyone, even the CIA analysts generating grim predictions before the invasion, was at some level unable to believe something like this was possible in 2022. We can still hope to prove it was the absurd strategic mistake our intuition had hoped it was.
  - zx85wes 5y ago
    I just read this : https://twitter.com/i/status/1497252061678813187 https://twitter.com/i/status/1497252061678813187 EXCLUSIVE: I have been given a copy of document issued today by Russian Ministry of Health. It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency & has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate & work. Why doesn't this scare people to death?
    - w0de0 5y ago
      Your question is rhetorical - forgive me. > Why doesn't this scare people to death? The human hierarchy of fear seems sorted by proximity and tractability, not a rational calculus of risk and probability. Abstract threats, or those percieved unavoidable, might inspire only apathy. And indeed, what can I possibly do about rumors of Russia considering nuclear war? I've kept Potassium Iodide stocked since 2014, which seemed practical and easy.
bsd44 5y ago
I would be very surprised if this happened. This would mean that European economies won't get their invested money back and also won't be able to pay for services. Extremely highly unlikely. Even if Europe replaces Russian LNG with American it will still be at least 3x-5x the current price.
TechBro8615 5y ago
This sounds like a great way to encourage the development of a parallel economy and criminal network. Anyway, this should surely be good for Bitcoin, right?
tzekid 5y ago
I find it strange that nobody talks about the SWIFT alternative Russia and China have been working on since 2013, Russia’s System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS). If I understand correctly, there're already 23 countries with banks that have adopted SPFS, including Switzerland and Germany... so a SWIFT ban will only have a short-term negative effect on their economy and finally would be a big nudge towards building stronger Russian-Chinese ties in the future. Don't know how smart that is long-term, to be honest.

110 points by 323 5y ago

https://archive.is/22B4o https://archive.is/22B4o

I am wondering if this automatically means Russia will switch off gas supplies? Understandably, how Europe will pay for Russian gas when SWIFT is switched off, and probably Russia won't be sending gas for free?

askmike 5y ago
SWIFT is just a messaging system, they can probably still use Telex which is the precursor to SWIFT.
- megous 5y ago
  No, I think they'll have to go a bit more back to the past, and carry gold in chests using coach and fours.
  - bushbaba 5y ago
    Why not crypto?
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
- treis 5y ago
  I'm reasonably sure that the point is not to make Russia use Telex instead of SWIFT. The point is to stop Russia from transacting in dollars.
  - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
    > the point is not to make Russia use Telex instead of SWIFT I believe it is. Nobody is threatening sanctioning Russia's energy sector à la Iran.
    - treis 5y ago
      I'm reasonably sure that those calling for Russia's ban from SWIFT are doing so precisely for that reason. They may not understand that banning them for SWIFT doesn't exactly accomplish that, but that's the motivation for the call.
      - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
        > may not understand that banning them for SWIFT doesn't exactly accomplish that There are numerous workarounds. Most involve Russia submitting to China. Given how unpredictable Putin’s become, that’s preferable to them being a regional power.
- digianarchist 5y ago
  Or CIPS which will likely undercut this attempt of isolating Russia’s financial system.
  - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
    > Or CIPS which will likely undercut this attempt of isolating Russia’s financial system This is almost expected. The calculation being that Russia is safer as a Chinese vassal than a regional power. Settling via CIPS is also more burdensome and thus expensive than settling via SWIFT.
dtx1 5y ago
He might, though that would also cost russia dearly because all countries like germany that are dependent on russian gas will a) be royally pissed and b) make sure they lower their dependence on russian gas in the future. And russias economy is really dependent on their natural recourcess export
- wronglebowski 5y ago
  I do wonder just how much German sentiment has shifted. From the leaked clips of a high ranking German officer saying "Putin just wants respect" before the war. Now seeing a large shift amongst those I follow on twitter in German who were previous anti-action. Assuming SWIFT access is cut, and then the Natural Gas supplies are turned off is there another escalation back? Assuming the US/EU can rally their resources how do they mount a quick recovery from the loss of natural gas which will certainly be devastating. Even if the Nuclear plants in process of decommissioning are reversed(if possible) I'm not sure how the EU gets through the next six months without a ton of pain.
  - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
    > Assuming SWIFT access is cut, and then the Natural Gas supplies are turned off is there another escalation back? Sure. We could sanction their oil and gas industry. Like we've done to Iran. There's also a whole world of plausibly deniable black ops stuff we could do to mess with their infrastructure.
  - atlex2 5y ago
    Winter is almost over, that helps a lot.
    - azeirah 5y ago
      The winter here in the Netherlands is also really mild. I'm in a 4th floor apartment with the main room facing the sun with all windows. if I clothed a bit warmer than normal I could go without gas until winder ends. Of course not everyone lives in a small apartment facing the sun but still.
VBprogrammer 5y ago
Seems like Putin missed a trick by not kicking this off in November. With a whole winter of gas supply issues in store the EU would be walking on egg shells even more than they have been. Regardless, it seems like a small price to pay for solidarity with the Ukrainian people.
- netsharc 5y ago
  Also, it's almost spring... Although I did wake up to snow on the ground this morning. Seems like Putin didn't want to piss off Xi by starting a war before/during Xi's "look at how great we are" Olympic Games.
  - mmastrac 5y ago
    I felt like this year's games disappeared in all the news: pandemic, truckers, Ukraine
    - dgut 5y ago
      To be fair... Winter Olympics don't typically get much attention, this year was an exception and it actually got _more_ attention.
  - hh3k0 5y ago
    > Seems like Putin didn't want to piss off Xi by starting a war before/during Xi's "look at how great we are" Olympic Games. And it'd seem that Putin favors dates like 22.02.2022 for some strange reason. Russia launched their full-scale invasion of Georgia on 08.08.2008, too.
    - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
      Dear god, if this all turns out in the end to be the fancy of some Rasputinesque numerologist with the Kremlin's ear...
    - HWR_14 5y ago
      Also explains why he had to go big this invasion. There is no march 33 to look forward to.
sidewndr46 5y ago
The same way the Soviet Union paid for Western goods. Shipments of gold, or exchange of goods of equivalent value.
ridaj 5y ago
Yes I think that's the idea and the reason why it's taking a while to set up. Maybe they'll take bitcoin? It will be a test of whether this can really be a backup form of payment against the will of states.
3np 5y ago
I’m sure there are other channels but I’m pretty sure cryptocurrency markets have enough liquidity to prop up gas payments. If this goes through and BTC price starts spiking, I’d interpret that as a signal that it is happening, which would be a validation for Bitcoin playing a significant role in avoiding banking restrictions.
rectang 5y ago
If Europe stops buying Russian gas (a big if, and something that might happen later rather than sooner), are there other countries which would buy it? China, for instance?
- EEBio 5y ago
  Probably, but this would hurt Russia immensely. Currently there is not much infrastructure to support delivery of that much more gas to China, so it would need to be built and that would probably take years. At the same time, it would hurt Europe more than Russia in the short-term. (But it might be really worth it in long term)
  - bilbo0s 5y ago
    that would probably take years. We underestimate Chinese productivity at our own peril. While we deal with this Ukraine/Russia thing, it would be unwise to not wargame out some 'humor me' scenarios. "I know the Chinese could never build that much infrastructure in the short term. But 'humor me', what if they can?"
    - EEBio 5y ago
      If they can build it, they still do not have the demand for that much extra gas, probably just little. The Chinese government is despicably authoritarian, but unlike Putin, they are not crazy and they are playing it long-term. They won't condemn Russian invasion too harshly, but they don't want to break energy supply chains from West to help out a not-exactly-friendly state (just an enemy of an enemy).

neverminder 5y ago

ridaj 5y ago
Maybe give safe harbor to ransomware operators who target Russia in the same way that Russia gives safe harbor to ransomware operators as long as they don't operate domestically https://krebsonsecurity.com/2021/05/try-this-one-weird-trick-russian-hackers-hate/ https://krebsonsecurity.com/2021/05/try-this-one-weird-trick...
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- foverzar 5y ago
  So basically nothing would change, it's not like it wasn't the case up until now.
  - ridaj 5y ago
    Source?
baal80spam 5y ago
Reminder: Russians have nukes.
- survirtual 5y ago
  At some point the world needs to stop giving their lunch money to the bully and take a stand.
  - zx85wes 5y ago
- neverminder 5y ago
  What do nukes have to do with FAANG, a bunch of private companies, cancelling their products and services? I'm sure they can come up with something from the fine print in their T&Cs to justify that. This is the only way that is not direct military action to hit them hard. So why not?

sAbakumoff 5y ago

good. Then shut down the airspace for all Russian planes in EU, close ship waters and seize money of all Putin's friends.

Friday_ 5y ago

What will EU get for this?

jonathanstrange 5y ago
In the short term, sanctioning an action in a civilized manner that used to be a casus belli. In the long run, not allowing Russia to further modernize their military and likely preventing a nuclear war by not emboldening Putin to attack Latvia, Estonia, Lithuania, Finland or Poland at some point in the future because of previous inaction.
- Friday_ 5y ago
  Wait did you understand the question, what will EU get? EU is not afraid of russians or nukes.
  - jonathanstrange 5y ago
    You don't see how sanctioning an action that in the past used to be reason for war and likely preventing nuclear war in the future is something positive? Geopolitics is not your strength, is it? Well, to make it simple for you, EU gets a weak Russian military in the future, which is very desirable. Edit: Oh, I see. I've replied to another 4 day old account. What a coincidence!
    - Friday_ 5y ago
      As i said EU is not worried about Russians. What else?
      - jonathanstrange 5y ago
        The EU is not worried about Russia? From where on earth did you get this bizarre and obviously false view? Every Eastern EU country is extremely worried about Russia right now and NATO has sent reinforcements to them.

hourislate 5y ago

Bankrupt Russia's oligarchs and Putin will be dead within a week. Just saying.....

jl6 5y ago

We should not make offensive moves - down that path lies further escalation. We need to isolate Russia using non-violence. Primarily, refusing to buy their oil and gas. Remote bricking all iOS devices in Russia would be an offensive escalation because it would directly harm Russian assets. Barring Russia from SWIFT… does that amount to a refusal to trade with them? That feels appropriately non-violent, but I’m unsure exactly what it would involve.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> Remote bricking all iOS devices in Russia would be an offensive escalation because it would directly harm Russian assets It's still nonviolent.
- mukesh610 5y ago
  So right to repair right out of the window?
  - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
    > right to repair right out of the window? This...never existed in a military/geopolitical context? Does Ukraine get to sue Russia for materiel it's blowing up?
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
    - mukesh610 5y ago
      I don't see the connection, but I know of a bunch of people who'd be pretty mad about how a corporation can remotely cut off an entire country's digital access.
      - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
        > know of a bunch of people who'd be pretty mad about how a corporation can remotely cut off an entire country's digital access Of course. Same with SWIFT cut-off. Doing it in a way that is not arbitrary would be key. (I don't know how one would do that. There is no precedent for that type of action, and it is not being seriously considered by senior policymakers.)

bladegash 5y ago

Have to wonder what the end goal is here. Putin is human, but he’s also pretty calculating in his actions. People have mentioned before China’s competing system to SWIFT and this move potentially being to their benefit. You also have the EU and US spinning up their wheels against a boogeyman, which in some ways, has the effect of strengthening and/or testing their relationships. In other ways, it forces the West into really tough and expensive policy positions, with plenty of opportunity to damage relationships as well. Perhaps it really is just as simple as they wanted to prevent Ukraine from joining the EU/NATO. Maybe it’s a mixture of all the above. Blinken mentioned it - and I agree - that I don’t see whatever plan that’s currently underway as intentioned to stop at Ukraine.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> have to wonder what the end goal is here Convince the oligarchs they're richer with Putin dead than alive.
- azeirah 5y ago
  I think bladegash was talking about what Putin's goal was.
  - kthejoker2 5y ago
    Convince the oligarchs they're richer with Ukraine out of NATO than in it, because gas?
lomereiter 5y ago
My wild guess is that Putin's goal has always been cleansing the power circles of the oligarchs who got there in the 1990s, and now that he's running out of time as he's getting old, he needs help in that from the West. Now he might be betting that the sanctions will mostly target these oligarchs and make the country _really_ unattractive for them, whereas an average Russian anyway has no assets abroad and doesn't travel much, and therefore won't notice the difference, as energy and food are abundant domestically. If that's his plan, there should be no need to go beyond Ukraine.

throwaway290 5y ago

Just donated US$150 to UNHCR’s Ukraine program while I still can. Don’t know if online bank card payments will still work after SWIFT is disabled for us. If you care, you could do that too.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> don’t know if bank card payments will still work after SWIFT is disabled Russia is being threatened with cut-off, not Ukraine.
- Chirael 5y ago
  I think the implication is that throwaway290 is in Russia
  - throwaway290 5y ago
    Even though they affect me personally, I understand sanctions directed at Russia as a whole more so than sanctions that hurt innocent people who happen to live in territories occupied by Russia/separatists. (Back when Crimea was annexed, everybody with billing address there had their existing banking cards shut off; freelancers with addresses in Crimea, Donbas etc. are long banned from online marketplaces. It did not affect me, but I never understood the intent.) Luckily, I don't have my own family to support.
- throwaway290 5y ago
  Exactly.
Normille 5y ago
Remember when the rest of the world imposed punitive sanctions on the US after they invaded Iraq and Afghanistan? No. Me neither.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago

There are two purposes to sanctions. The first is to harm the enemy. Cutting Russia off from SWIFT does that. The second is to reduce moral culpability. The idea that we shouldn't let our work, our infrastructure, be used to further aims we find detestable. The former is an exercise in balancing costs and benefits. In this, the evidence for cutting Russia off is mixed--they will likely develop a vassal relationship with China that offsets the cost enough to let the regime survive. The latter is an exercise in measuring evil and involvement. In this, the evidence is fairly clear. Adding an automatic off-switch triggered by total withdrawal from all of Ukraine, including Crimea, or Putin's surrender to a NATO member (or evidence of his death) would give the whole thing a sharper edge.

323 5y ago
I'm pretty sure Russia is close to boiling over this. If the tanks roll through Kyiv and start shooting inside the city we might see massive protests in Russia.
- zx85wes 5y ago
  I agree. His regime will be in a corner. What could happen then worries me to no end. We're in uncharted territory. We've never pushed things this far with a nuclear power.
  - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
    > We've never pushed things this far with a nuclear power The USSR literally collapsed. Pakistan has danced with a new regime a decade. We're in highly, highly risky territory. But it's not unprecedented.
  - rswail 5y ago
    In what way have "we" pushed things here. Ukraine voted for independence back in the early 90s by an overwhelming majority in all areas, including those currently "recognized" by Russia. Ukrainians want all the benefits of EU membership, and they gave up their nuclear weapons on the promise of security from Europe, the US, and Russia. Putin's "history" is nonsense.

mywacaday 5y ago

Why the wait? It only allows funds to move in the meantime. If it's going to be cut off there should be no warning.

riskable 5y ago
It's just your classic, "it's not so simple" problem. SWIFT has endpoints just like any other protocol. Someone's job right now is to compile a list of endpoints (aka banks) that are to be cut off and then it'll be someone else's job to approve that list. Then there will be negotiating and agreements and whatnot.

antb1235 5y ago

My bet... Everything just settles via Armenia, Egypt, and China via netting agreements... No impact.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> via Armenia, Egypt, and China via netting agreements Nobody argues alternatives don't exist. Russia will pivot to China. But for all our gripes with Beijing, they're a more rational regime than Putin's. (See: North Korea.) Russia being their vassal is better than the nonsense they are today. And China's systems are more expensive than SWIFT, which will reduce Russia's proceeds.
- w0de0 5y ago
  Indeed, I see your point. China’s reaction to this crisis has elucidated for me the fact that its government is a complex institution with separate power bases (cf. Putin’s lonely autocracy). It’s clear that at least some of those nodes earnestly hold the principle of always-sacrosanct sovereignty which is a cornerstone of China’s foreign policy (and of its criticism of the West), and are not pleased with the hypocrisy now inherent in their alliance.
- pyb 5y ago
  Yes, it seems that Russia needs China way more than China needs Russia.
- rswail 5y ago
  China is an empire on the rise, Russia is one in the throes of death. Russia will eventually have to choose between Europe and China.

ck2 5y ago

This smells like a delay to let the wealthy get their money out of Russia, etc. However that is not a bad thing if they can drain Russian bank? Based on that other article, SWIFT cutoff will only cost Russia 5% GNP ( https://archive.today/XqZzK https://archive.today/XqZzK ) The far bigger better news to me is France started seizing physical assets like I hoped all the countries would start doing, if we aren't going to put boots on the ground then the "blood" must be from assets even if Russia counters and seizes foreign assets too. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/26/france-seizes-russian-cargo-ship-channel/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/26/france-sei...

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
dogma1138 5y ago
More like a delay to get everything worked out there isn’t a button to push to cut a country off SWIFT each institution with access to SWIFTnet would have to do it on their end. Russia has huge foreign currency reserves this is the main goal of this sanction it would prevent them from using their reserves to sustain their own economy whilst their own currency collapses.

rvba 5y ago

Despite what people think kicking Russia from swift is not good. This means that lots of companies who sold to Russia will not get paid. Europe will also jave problems to pay for gas: paying with gold is a bad idea. Oligarchs will buy from Chinese resellers. Abetter option would be go ban companies from doing business in Russia. Bankrupting European and US comapnies that sold to Russia (and now wait for money) wont help. Also banning fron swoft means that the big companies will still find ways to trade. Trade with them is not forbidden. I can easly see them asking to send money to some third party bank (China, North Korea) who will act as an intermediary.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> Bankrupting European and US comapnies that sold to Russia (and now wait for money) won't help Why? They're culpable. I'm going to lose money on my investments in Russia. Shame on me.
- rvba 5y ago
  If you sell lipstick or Gucci bags to Russia you probably get paid 30-90 days after delivery. Same for iphones or cars. Even if you sell Steam games it might take few days until you receive the money (assuming you dont park it in Russia for tax reasons). An Iran style ban on sales is much better than this SWIFT blockade.
  - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
    > An Iran style ban on sales is much better than this SWIFT blockade I’m advocating for placing the Russian central bank on the SDN list. Hell of a lot more than either. We could tolerate rations against the Nazis but can’t stomach a few months of invoices lost?
    - JumpCrisscross 5y ago
      WOOP! We got it!

IdontRememberIt 5y ago

Why not punishing only the government: cancel all visas to the people working in the gov and especially their family. So no more rich gov kids in Western universities, etc. I find a little unfair to punish people to push them in the streets and have them arrested, tortured or "administratively" punished (remember what happen after the Turkey coup in 2016? Military were punished but also many people working in the public sector.)

jacquesm 5y ago
When you start a war of aggression you calculate in that there will be sanctions against your own people. This is first and foremost on Putin. Not that he cares, and probably not that this will be a popular sentiment in Russia. The alternative to sanctions is a shooting war, it is probably a good idea to put as many steps in between that point and now as we can, who knows, there might be someone with a change of heart high enough up in the Russian ranks that it makes a difference.
woodruffw 5y ago
Sanctions are a form of economic warfare: they are intended to make broad swaths of the population suffer, with the goal of producing general discontent. A discontented civilian population means an unpopular war, and unpopular wars are harder to wage. Or so the theory goes.
- IdontRememberIt 5y ago
  I can only see a list of suffering people without expected outcome: North Korea, Venezuela, Iran, URSS, Cuba, etc. (Genuine question to History geeks) Do we have an exemple of mass sanctions on a country that worked? Why are we repeating strategies that do not seem to work? Theses sanctions seems to be designed to only short term please the people/voters/journalists of the sanctioning countries but are terrible to the sanctioned country/people long term without solving anything.
  - woodruffw 5y ago
    I'm not enough of a history buff to say whether sanctions are consistently successful. But I will point out that the point of (broad) sanctions isn't to win wars: it's to punish governments by punishing their people, who are then expected to pressure the government to acquiesce. Among the targets of US sanctions in the last 50 years, contemporary Russia is somewhat unique: it has a relatively large and urbanized middle class, one that's used to the benefits of global trade and cheap European travel. Sanctions that hurt those people seem, on face value, more likely to impact Putin's decision making than e.g. sanctions on North Korean peasant farmers.

chinathrow 5y ago

This is really interesting to me. The "matter of days" matters a lot. Pull the plug NOW.

rdxm 5y ago

tlogan 5y ago

Am I the only one which is surprised that Putin actually invaided Ukraine? It is true that majority of people in Ukraine are very much against Putin but they are very much connected with Russia so this looks like killing your own people. So when Lukasenko dies then Russia will invaide Belarus and kill bunch of people who they don’t like Putin?

w0de0 5y ago
We have had thirty years of peace among the great powers. It’s been seventy years since armies last clashed in conventional, large-scale armored warfare on European soil - or perhaps anywhere. Through these years humanity learned to expect perpetual and cold stalemate as an inevitable paradigm between Russia and the West. Over these generations, humanity has on average become wealthier and more educated and more democratic - all correlates of robust peace between nations. You’re not the only one surprised. I have little doubt that everyone, even the CIA analysts generating grim predictions before the invasion, was at some level unable to believe something like this was possible in 2022. We can still hope to prove it was the absurd strategic mistake our intuition had hoped it was.
- zx85wes 5y ago
  I just read this : https://twitter.com/i/status/1497252061678813187 https://twitter.com/i/status/1497252061678813187 EXCLUSIVE: I have been given a copy of document issued today by Russian Ministry of Health. It indicates Russia is anticipating a massive medical emergency & has ordered health organisations to immediately identify medical staff ready to relocate & work. Why doesn't this scare people to death?
  - w0de0 5y ago
    Your question is rhetorical - forgive me. > Why doesn't this scare people to death? The human hierarchy of fear seems sorted by proximity and tractability, not a rational calculus of risk and probability. Abstract threats, or those percieved unavoidable, might inspire only apathy. And indeed, what can I possibly do about rumors of Russia considering nuclear war? I've kept Potassium Iodide stocked since 2014, which seemed practical and easy.

bsd44 5y ago

I would be very surprised if this happened. This would mean that European economies won't get their invested money back and also won't be able to pay for services. Extremely highly unlikely. Even if Europe replaces Russian LNG with American it will still be at least 3x-5x the current price.

TechBro8615 5y ago

This sounds like a great way to encourage the development of a parallel economy and criminal network. Anyway, this should surely be good for Bitcoin, right?

tzekid 5y ago

I find it strange that nobody talks about the SWIFT alternative Russia and China have been working on since 2013, Russia’s System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS). If I understand correctly, there're already 23 countries with banks that have adopted SPFS, including Switzerland and Germany... so a SWIFT ban will only have a short-term negative effect on their economy and finally would be a big nudge towards building stronger Russian-Chinese ties in the future. Don't know how smart that is long-term, to be honest.