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Probably by sheer force of numbers and firepower. I think it’s very likely Russia will win in the end, they’re just going about it in the most half assed way po

Probably by sheer force of numbers and firepower. I think it’s very likely Russia will win in the end, they’re just going about it in the most half assed way possible that drags this out and increases their own casualties.

capableweb 5y ago
> they’re just going about it in the most half assed way possible that drags this out and increases their own casualties You're saying that they purposefully as dragging this out and purposefully want as many casualties on their own side? What purpose could that serve? Putin wants Ukraine to be a part of Russia again, I'm sure he'd want it to be as little damaged as possible and aims to replace the government first and foremost. Anything else is collateral damage.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  > What purpose could that serve? Absorb impact of high tech armaments until Ukraine runs out of those after which they could send in more valuable troops. Armies are like pyramids, tons of 'cannon fodder' on the lower branches, what photos I've seen of the actual Russian troops in Ukraine are mostly scared kids aged 18 to 20 or so, hardly any seasoned troops.
  - enaaem 5y ago
    Do you have sources that this is an actual (modern army) doctrine anywhere? Russia has a demographic crisis. Their population of young men (20-34) will go from 14M to 11M in 5 years. Around a 20% reduction. They won’t have enough men to man their massive borders or maintain their massive infrastructure. Every soldier lost in this war cannot be replaced. Throwing men into the meat-grinder would be the most retarded strategy ever.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      No, that's just one way that it made at least a little bit of sense. > Throwing men into the meat-grinder would be the most retarded strategy ever. Yes. But that has been the Russian way for the longest time.
      - justin66 5y ago
        That would explain a lot of things, but what the Russians are doing is even more inexplicable, with a mix of good and bad tactics and cheap assets and valuable assets. It’s amateur night in some places, but at least one reporter accidentally discovered that the airport they were reporting from had been taken by Russian paratroopers. (“How far are the Russians?” “We’re the Russians!”) There’s more nonsensical stuff, but I have the feeling some - but not all - important people on the Russian side really, seriously believed the crazy idea that Ukrainians would all immediately surrender, and acted accordingly.
        jacquesm 5y ago
        > That would explain a lot of things, but what the Russians are doing is even more inexplicable, with a mix of good and bad tactics and cheap assets and valuable assets. Another explanation is that it could be simply a probe to see what the readiness of the Ukrainian forces is. They should know that by now, so you can expect an imminent change in tactics. > It’s amateur night in some places, but at least one reporter accidentally discovered that the airport they were reporting on had been taken by Russian paratroopers. (“How far are the Russians?” “We’re the Russians!”) Yes, lots of confusion, but that is to be expected, similar stuff happened during the (former) Yugoslavian war. > There’s more nonsensical stuff, but I have the feeling some - but not all - important people on the Russian side really, seriously believed the crazy idea that Ukrainians would all immediately surrender, and acted accordingly. This is a distinct but remote possibility. For sure they underestimated the resistance.
        justin66 5y ago
        There are a few things that can only be explained by total incompetence on the part of a Russian planner or a belief there’d be no resistance (which I suppose amounts to the same thing). I don’t have a huge frame of reference since war is not something I normally read about, but it’s striking even to me that the humble Ukrainian Air Force was (still is, one hopes) able to offer the resistance they did. On paper the Russian military is capable of destroying all their airfields and SAM sites the night prior to the invasion, and knowing where those Ukrainian jets were was someone’s job. It seems crazy to say “those fighter pilots will switch sides when they see us coming and there’s no way they would engage our fighters, bombers, or troop transports. Why would we even want to destroy that perfectly good airfield where they are located?” I wonder what the actual conversation was like. > For sure they underestimated the resistance. They sure did.
enaaem 5y ago
Analysts expect occupation to be the hardest part for Russia. Ukrainian resolve is at legendary high levels at this moment.

capableweb 5y ago

> they’re just going about it in the most half assed way possible that drags this out and increases their own casualties You're saying that they purposefully as dragging this out and purposefully want as many casualties on their own side? What purpose could that serve? Putin wants Ukraine to be a part of Russia again, I'm sure he'd want it to be as little damaged as possible and aims to replace the government first and foremost. Anything else is collateral damage.

jacquesm 5y ago
> What purpose could that serve? Absorb impact of high tech armaments until Ukraine runs out of those after which they could send in more valuable troops. Armies are like pyramids, tons of 'cannon fodder' on the lower branches, what photos I've seen of the actual Russian troops in Ukraine are mostly scared kids aged 18 to 20 or so, hardly any seasoned troops.
- enaaem 5y ago
  Do you have sources that this is an actual (modern army) doctrine anywhere? Russia has a demographic crisis. Their population of young men (20-34) will go from 14M to 11M in 5 years. Around a 20% reduction. They won’t have enough men to man their massive borders or maintain their massive infrastructure. Every soldier lost in this war cannot be replaced. Throwing men into the meat-grinder would be the most retarded strategy ever.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    No, that's just one way that it made at least a little bit of sense. > Throwing men into the meat-grinder would be the most retarded strategy ever. Yes. But that has been the Russian way for the longest time.
    - justin66 5y ago
      That would explain a lot of things, but what the Russians are doing is even more inexplicable, with a mix of good and bad tactics and cheap assets and valuable assets. It’s amateur night in some places, but at least one reporter accidentally discovered that the airport they were reporting from had been taken by Russian paratroopers. (“How far are the Russians?” “We’re the Russians!”) There’s more nonsensical stuff, but I have the feeling some - but not all - important people on the Russian side really, seriously believed the crazy idea that Ukrainians would all immediately surrender, and acted accordingly.
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        > That would explain a lot of things, but what the Russians are doing is even more inexplicable, with a mix of good and bad tactics and cheap assets and valuable assets. Another explanation is that it could be simply a probe to see what the readiness of the Ukrainian forces is. They should know that by now, so you can expect an imminent change in tactics. > It’s amateur night in some places, but at least one reporter accidentally discovered that the airport they were reporting on had been taken by Russian paratroopers. (“How far are the Russians?” “We’re the Russians!”) Yes, lots of confusion, but that is to be expected, similar stuff happened during the (former) Yugoslavian war. > There’s more nonsensical stuff, but I have the feeling some - but not all - important people on the Russian side really, seriously believed the crazy idea that Ukrainians would all immediately surrender, and acted accordingly. This is a distinct but remote possibility. For sure they underestimated the resistance.
        justin66 5y ago
        There are a few things that can only be explained by total incompetence on the part of a Russian planner or a belief there’d be no resistance (which I suppose amounts to the same thing). I don’t have a huge frame of reference since war is not something I normally read about, but it’s striking even to me that the humble Ukrainian Air Force was (still is, one hopes) able to offer the resistance they did. On paper the Russian military is capable of destroying all their airfields and SAM sites the night prior to the invasion, and knowing where those Ukrainian jets were was someone’s job. It seems crazy to say “those fighter pilots will switch sides when they see us coming and there’s no way they would engage our fighters, bombers, or troop transports. Why would we even want to destroy that perfectly good airfield where they are located?” I wonder what the actual conversation was like. > For sure they underestimated the resistance. They sure did.

enaaem 5y ago

Analysts expect occupation to be the hardest part for Russia. Ukrainian resolve is at legendary high levels at this moment.