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As someone who's been tracking Russian politics due to being born there some time ago, the recent wave of sanctions are starting to have a rather undesired effe

As someone who's been tracking Russian politics due to being born there some time ago, the recent wave of sanctions are starting to have a rather undesired effect. Roughly since 2008 (Georgian war), Russia has been actively cutting many economic ties that could have been used as a point of leverage. They have a knock-off debit card system [0], dedicated Internet censorship agency [1], and have been expelling Western civic organizations and trying to ban various European goods (e.g. french cheese). This absolutely does reduce the life quality of an average Russian, but it is done in a slow controlled way, and spun the right way with massive propaganda, so people don't call out bullshit. And the West has less and less leverage over Russia with each step like this. There is an unexploited Achilles heel though - Russian elites commonly send their spouses and children to live in the West, because it provides a safe haven against the internal Russian power struggle. Forcing those to return back to Russia would very quickly change incentives on many levels, but I cannot envision the West doing it. Not when it has become the safe harbor for dirty money made in poorer countries. Otherwise a random bullshit job in the First World wouldn't pay >100x the rate of the guy how assembles iPhones somewhere in the "growing economies". [0] https://mironline.ru/ https://mironline.ru/ [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Service_for_Supervision_of_Communications,_Information_Technology_and_Mass_Media https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Federal_Service_for_Supervisio...

stjohnswarts 5y ago
I don't think anyone who actually thinks past headlines doesn't realize that this will hurt the Russian populace more than it will Putin, but they're really one of the pressure points to getting him to stop his war crimes against Ukraine. I think it's a multifront effort without actually firing bullets and the best tool that we have.
323 5y ago
> but I cannot envision the West doing it Give it a few weeks. Remember how Nord Stream 2 was untouchable just a month ago. If you consider the 7 stages of grief, the West is in 1-Shock or 2-Denial stage. 3-Anger is just starting.
- john_moscow 5y ago
  The West is weak. It is used to solving problems on paper (2008 crisis, Pandemic-time money printing) and hoping that it will somehow pan out. The tolerance for getting out of your comfort zone is near zero. The politicians will toss out a few strong-worded U.N. resolutions and will hope that Putin gets bored, or their term expires before it gets any worse. Except, it only works, as long as less spoiled people in less fortunate places are willing to assemble your smartphones, sew your jeans and operate the oil rigs for fraction of your wage. And these people will have much more willpower and commitment, and they may eventually realize that conquering the West could be more fun than serving it. Not that I like it, just abstract detached thoughts.
  - freerobots 5y ago
    This is why I'm skeptical of claims that Putin won't get what he wants here. The West is politically incapable of rallying people to do the right thing if it comes at any degradation to their livelihoods. US/EU banks still want their bonds paid and US oil companies don't want Russia seizing their investments. The incumbent party, especially in an election year, doesn't want any more economic risk, and the donor class won't stand for any losses.
psyc 5y ago
Please forward your suggestions to CIA. I am beginning to worry that they have run out of ideas.
- john_moscow 5y ago
  Well, it's deeper than it seems. You cannot just start revoking random people's citizenship for being relatives of the loosely defined bad guys. That's the straight route to turning your own country into a 3rd-world dictatorship. What you can do is tighten the anti-money-laundring laws, so that living in the West off money made in sketchy ways becomes harder, but there's a major conflict of interest here. A lot of the West's wealth is fueled by the dirty money flows from elsewhere, and cutting it off without inevitable side effects (e.g. real estate crash) is not an easy task.

stjohnswarts 5y ago

I don't think anyone who actually thinks past headlines doesn't realize that this will hurt the Russian populace more than it will Putin, but they're really one of the pressure points to getting him to stop his war crimes against Ukraine. I think it's a multifront effort without actually firing bullets and the best tool that we have.

323 5y ago

> but I cannot envision the West doing it Give it a few weeks. Remember how Nord Stream 2 was untouchable just a month ago. If you consider the 7 stages of grief, the West is in 1-Shock or 2-Denial stage. 3-Anger is just starting.

john_moscow 5y ago
The West is weak. It is used to solving problems on paper (2008 crisis, Pandemic-time money printing) and hoping that it will somehow pan out. The tolerance for getting out of your comfort zone is near zero. The politicians will toss out a few strong-worded U.N. resolutions and will hope that Putin gets bored, or their term expires before it gets any worse. Except, it only works, as long as less spoiled people in less fortunate places are willing to assemble your smartphones, sew your jeans and operate the oil rigs for fraction of your wage. And these people will have much more willpower and commitment, and they may eventually realize that conquering the West could be more fun than serving it. Not that I like it, just abstract detached thoughts.
- freerobots 5y ago
  This is why I'm skeptical of claims that Putin won't get what he wants here. The West is politically incapable of rallying people to do the right thing if it comes at any degradation to their livelihoods. US/EU banks still want their bonds paid and US oil companies don't want Russia seizing their investments. The incumbent party, especially in an election year, doesn't want any more economic risk, and the donor class won't stand for any losses.

psyc 5y ago

Please forward your suggestions to CIA. I am beginning to worry that they have run out of ideas.

john_moscow 5y ago
Well, it's deeper than it seems. You cannot just start revoking random people's citizenship for being relatives of the loosely defined bad guys. That's the straight route to turning your own country into a 3rd-world dictatorship. What you can do is tighten the anti-money-laundring laws, so that living in the West off money made in sketchy ways becomes harder, but there's a major conflict of interest here. A lot of the West's wealth is fueled by the dirty money flows from elsewhere, and cutting it off without inevitable side effects (e.g. real estate crash) is not an easy task.