3 ms·

Thanks for the reference, I has not heard of this CSDP. However, if I was quite sure nobody would sent troops to Ukraine, Sweden sounds very close to my French

Thanks for the reference, I has not heard of this CSDP. However, if I was quite sure nobody would sent troops to Ukraine, Sweden sounds very close to my French ears. Finland is more difficult to defend but the Southern part of Sweden, the most inhabited, is close enough to project troops rapidly. The USA would also be able to send fighters and bombers from the Thule airbase to bomb troups on the northern part of Sweden, as well as English airforce from Scotland. Other smaller airforces from Norway, Belgium, etc will help avoiding air superiority to Russia. The USA, the UK and France would deploy their fleet with their aircraft carriers. Furthermore, my feeling is that France and the UK would send troops to Sweden. Germany would provide at least transport and material support as it did in previous cases (first war against Iraq, current anti-djihadist operations in Sahel). Germany avoid sending troops abroad but discreetly enables France and the USA for example with support. The public opinions of at least those three countries would be strong against Russia now that Putin's intentions have been revealed. Southern countries of EU would react too, at minimum by blocking access to the Atlantic through the Mediterranean sea, as well as support of all kinds. I don't feel being culturally close to Ukraine. Attacking Sweden is just a direct attack to the West. I feel closer to Sweden than to the Baltic states. Not that I don't support Ukraine 100% against Russia. I don't know if France is secretly sending large amounts of weapons to Ukraine. I wish we were but I doubt it - Macron always sides with big corporate's interests and French are the first investors in Russia. Germany also tends to put business first towards Russia. But Sweden is different. It's the West. Finland has its own strategy towards Russia. If Sweden ask.for help, I don't see western countries react as they do these days with Ukraine (eg ineffective economic sanctions). I think it would have been the same before Ukraine's invasion but because of it, my opinion is that we would send troops. Even I would enlist (boy, I'd need training just to get in shape and learn to shoot - so I'd probably be put somewhere at the supply chain or driving some truck.

jacquesm 5y ago
> Thanks for the reference, I has not heard of this CSDP. Ok. > However, if I was quite sure nobody would sent troops to Ukraine, Sweden sounds very close to my French ears. It isn't. Poland is. > Finland is more difficult to defend but the Southern part of Sweden, the most inhabited, is close enough to project troops rapidly. Yes, through Kaliningrad, but Sweden is amongst friends on all sides and Kaliningrad is an enclave that is relatively vulnerable and if it is used as an offensive base then it will be fair game. There is another, much longer and more vulnerable route through the strait between Finland and Estonia, I don't see that one working or working for long if Sweden and Finland would come under attack by Russia. Besides the obvious problems for Russia to operate on multiple fronts. The Northern route is vulnerable and extremely long, there is hardly any infrastructure there. > The USA would also be able to send fighters and bombers from the Thule airbase to bomb troups on the northern part of Sweden, as well as English airforce from Scotland. Other smaller airforces from Norway, Belgium, etc will help avoiding air superiority to Russia. This all depends on what Russia intends to do, which nobody really knows. I see only very few realistic options: they are bluffing, or they are utterly deranged. Assuming the latter, all bets are off, Putin might skip all of the preliminaries and drop a nuke on Stockholm, knowing that there is no way they are going to hold territory there to begin with. This would be an escalation the likes of which defies rational thought. I have family in Latvia, Poland and Romania, and know people from both Russia and Ukraine. This whole conflict is extremely stressful, I've seen it coming for years and have already acted on that and it pisses me off that we have not done more to deal with Russia when the time was right. As for Finland and their defense: Finland is armed to teeth, has a very capable military and the Soviets have never really left Finland after World War II, which is the Finnish way of reminding the Soviets that if they invade they run a good chance of becoming a permanent fixture on Finnish soil. They didn't win but they made it pretty costly, and Finland never forgot that lesson. >

jacquesm 5y ago

> Thanks for the reference, I has not heard of this CSDP. Ok. > However, if I was quite sure nobody would sent troops to Ukraine, Sweden sounds very close to my French ears. It isn't. Poland is. > Finland is more difficult to defend but the Southern part of Sweden, the most inhabited, is close enough to project troops rapidly. Yes, through Kaliningrad, but Sweden is amongst friends on all sides and Kaliningrad is an enclave that is relatively vulnerable and if it is used as an offensive base then it will be fair game. There is another, much longer and more vulnerable route through the strait between Finland and Estonia, I don't see that one working or working for long if Sweden and Finland would come under attack by Russia. Besides the obvious problems for Russia to operate on multiple fronts. The Northern route is vulnerable and extremely long, there is hardly any infrastructure there. > The USA would also be able to send fighters and bombers from the Thule airbase to bomb troups on the northern part of Sweden, as well as English airforce from Scotland. Other smaller airforces from Norway, Belgium, etc will help avoiding air superiority to Russia. This all depends on what Russia intends to do, which nobody really knows. I see only very few realistic options: they are bluffing, or they are utterly deranged. Assuming the latter, all bets are off, Putin might skip all of the preliminaries and drop a nuke on Stockholm, knowing that there is no way they are going to hold territory there to begin with. This would be an escalation the likes of which defies rational thought. I have family in Latvia, Poland and Romania, and know people from both Russia and Ukraine. This whole conflict is extremely stressful, I've seen it coming for years and have already acted on that and it pisses me off that we have not done more to deal with Russia when the time was right. As for Finland and their defense: Finland is armed to teeth, has a very capable military and the Soviets have never really left Finland after World War II, which is the Finnish way of reminding the Soviets that if they invade they run a good chance of becoming a permanent fixture on Finnish soil. They didn't win but they made it pretty costly, and Finland never forgot that lesson. >