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What would keep some entity that has its SWIFT access revoked from switching to China's CIPS or even crypto? Would it be merely an inconvenience, requiring the

What would keep some entity that has its SWIFT access revoked from switching to China's CIPS or even crypto? Would it be merely an inconvenience, requiring the change of a few processes, or would it create hard problems?

user432678 5y ago
I would say, good luck trying to sell gas or oil for bitcoins if the buyer even doesn’t want to have a business with you.
JulianMorrison 5y ago
I'm guessing it depends on the kind of sanctions. If dealing with rogues makes you a rogue, internationally, then CIPS may shy away from it.
daniel-grigg 5y ago
In the short term, both. Longer term yes, many countries would migrate to other systems which mitigates the value of SWIFT. Fear of that happening is part of the reluctance to use it as a political weapon.
elliekelly 5y ago
The two systems aren’t mutually exclusive. You can be a SWIFT member or participant and also use CIPS or cryptocurrency, though I think switching to crypto for payments would create a ton of procedural issues for most financial institutions.
lxgr 5y ago
When people say "revoking somebody's SWIFT access", I think they really mean putting them on national or international sanction/embargo lists that prohibit them from doing any kind of business with them (in particular, sending payments in their name or for their benefit), rather than actually, technically removing their SWIFT network access. Since SWIFT is not the only, but certainly the largest financial/interbank messaging network, I suppose the effects are similar, but "disabling SWIFT" to me always sounds like an implementation detail.
- jollybean 5y ago
  I don't believe this is accurate. I don't think anyone would arbitrarily just ban all trade like that. And if that's what they did intend, that's what they would say and the consequences are much bigger. It's kind of a 'de facto' ban however, in that, it's hard to pay people otherwise. I'm sure a Swiss bank or two could immediately broker transactions 'by hand' though, that would be a pretty easy way around things. That said, you could be right. If that's the case, I wish they would make it more clear.
  - native_samples 5y ago
    Yes. This whole thing is just once more revealing the cluelessness of our political classes. SWIFT is just a messaging system with verified identities, some schemas and a bit of business logic on the side. It exists because wire transfers predate the internet, not because it's clever or actually critical infrastructure. Disconnect Russian banks from SWIFT? OK, submit your SWIFT formatted messages to banks via this helpful REST API instead. The outcome is the same.
    - sealthedeal 5y ago
      It exists because banks need a way to know that money is coming to them, it more or less balances books. You are right, a Swiss bank could just call a Russian bank and say “hey we are sending you this money”, but A it would be a pain in the ass, and B, they could risk getting in trouble, but they are Swiss so they can do what they want hahaha.
    - jollybean 5y ago
      The politicians know what it means. They need 'something' they can do publicly. Russian Oligarchs have their massive yachts in ports in Europe. They are talking about 'no safe haven' but it's BS. If they want to do something, they can go after those ships. That said, many of them hold dual citizenship which makes legal problems. Also, the corrupt oligarchs serve as a conduit for money fuelling out of Russia to the West, I mean, they are kind of doing the West a favour to Russia's detriment. Europeans need to come together right now and pledge to absolve themselves of Russian Oil. It means major investment in Nuclear. Germany also has to start assuming responsibilities of leadership. They are benefiting the most from the Euro, and frankly European integration as they are sucking jobs and talented workers in form Spain, Italy etc. they have to share the burden of things like military leadership. Poland right now is supporting Ukraine in all sorts of ways, it's amazing to see, and they are not a rich country. Unlike the wave of migrants in 2015, these neighbouring refugees are being welcomed.
anonporridge 5y ago
Or Russia's new SWIFT alternative that they stood up after the west threatened SWIFT censorship after they annexed Crimea? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPFS https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPFS
- rtsil 5y ago
  If what the link says is true, that alternative includes only 23 foreign banks, as opposed to over 11,000 for SWIFT.
  - anonporridge 5y ago
    Fair, but if the US pulls the trigger on SWIFT censorship, that may not be completely destructive, and will only incentivize further expansion of the SPFS network to make the SWIFT attack less powerful next time.
sealthedeal 5y ago
It would come down to people would not be able to send money to them, I.e. they would say you can’t send money to Russia anymore, and if an institution went around SWIFT to send money and they get audited they could get into a lot of trouble.

user432678 5y ago

I would say, good luck trying to sell gas or oil for bitcoins if the buyer even doesn’t want to have a business with you.

JulianMorrison 5y ago

I'm guessing it depends on the kind of sanctions. If dealing with rogues makes you a rogue, internationally, then CIPS may shy away from it.

daniel-grigg 5y ago

In the short term, both. Longer term yes, many countries would migrate to other systems which mitigates the value of SWIFT. Fear of that happening is part of the reluctance to use it as a political weapon.

elliekelly 5y ago

The two systems aren’t mutually exclusive. You can be a SWIFT member or participant and also use CIPS or cryptocurrency, though I think switching to crypto for payments would create a ton of procedural issues for most financial institutions.

lxgr 5y ago

When people say "revoking somebody's SWIFT access", I think they really mean putting them on national or international sanction/embargo lists that prohibit them from doing any kind of business with them (in particular, sending payments in their name or for their benefit), rather than actually, technically removing their SWIFT network access. Since SWIFT is not the only, but certainly the largest financial/interbank messaging network, I suppose the effects are similar, but "disabling SWIFT" to me always sounds like an implementation detail.

jollybean 5y ago
I don't believe this is accurate. I don't think anyone would arbitrarily just ban all trade like that. And if that's what they did intend, that's what they would say and the consequences are much bigger. It's kind of a 'de facto' ban however, in that, it's hard to pay people otherwise. I'm sure a Swiss bank or two could immediately broker transactions 'by hand' though, that would be a pretty easy way around things. That said, you could be right. If that's the case, I wish they would make it more clear.
- native_samples 5y ago
  Yes. This whole thing is just once more revealing the cluelessness of our political classes. SWIFT is just a messaging system with verified identities, some schemas and a bit of business logic on the side. It exists because wire transfers predate the internet, not because it's clever or actually critical infrastructure. Disconnect Russian banks from SWIFT? OK, submit your SWIFT formatted messages to banks via this helpful REST API instead. The outcome is the same.
  - sealthedeal 5y ago
    It exists because banks need a way to know that money is coming to them, it more or less balances books. You are right, a Swiss bank could just call a Russian bank and say “hey we are sending you this money”, but A it would be a pain in the ass, and B, they could risk getting in trouble, but they are Swiss so they can do what they want hahaha.
  - jollybean 5y ago
    The politicians know what it means. They need 'something' they can do publicly. Russian Oligarchs have their massive yachts in ports in Europe. They are talking about 'no safe haven' but it's BS. If they want to do something, they can go after those ships. That said, many of them hold dual citizenship which makes legal problems. Also, the corrupt oligarchs serve as a conduit for money fuelling out of Russia to the West, I mean, they are kind of doing the West a favour to Russia's detriment. Europeans need to come together right now and pledge to absolve themselves of Russian Oil. It means major investment in Nuclear. Germany also has to start assuming responsibilities of leadership. They are benefiting the most from the Euro, and frankly European integration as they are sucking jobs and talented workers in form Spain, Italy etc. they have to share the burden of things like military leadership. Poland right now is supporting Ukraine in all sorts of ways, it's amazing to see, and they are not a rich country. Unlike the wave of migrants in 2015, these neighbouring refugees are being welcomed.

anonporridge 5y ago

Or Russia's new SWIFT alternative that they stood up after the west threatened SWIFT censorship after they annexed Crimea? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPFS https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SPFS

rtsil 5y ago
If what the link says is true, that alternative includes only 23 foreign banks, as opposed to over 11,000 for SWIFT.
- anonporridge 5y ago
  Fair, but if the US pulls the trigger on SWIFT censorship, that may not be completely destructive, and will only incentivize further expansion of the SPFS network to make the SWIFT attack less powerful next time.

sealthedeal 5y ago

It would come down to people would not be able to send money to them, I.e. they would say you can’t send money to Russia anymore, and if an institution went around SWIFT to send money and they get audited they could get into a lot of trouble.