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Putin thought he could have Russian troops enter Kyiv without resistance, quickly overthrow the democratically elected Ukrainian president and government, put s
by squarefoot 5y ago
Putin thought he could have Russian troops enter Kyiv without resistance, quickly overthrow the democratically elected Ukrainian president and government, put some of his sock puppets in place, then wait some time for things to settle to normal, and withdraw letting Ukraine slowly transition itself back to a de facto Russian colony.
But Ukrainians are fighting back, and although they're no match for the Russian army, the risk of a blood bath of both Ukrainian and Russian people pose some dangers for his already not stellar public acceptance. Let's not forget that many Russians have relatives and friends among Ukrainian people; a lot of them don't want this war; that's why he is sending peace messages: if shit hits the fan then he'll say "it's the Ukrainians who didn't accept it, not me". For the first time he appeared in trouble.
If Ukrainians heroic resistance lasts enough time, the consequences could very likely undermine Putin's position. I don't have many hopes sanctions alone will obtain serious results; they're crafted to be just above a minor nuisance not to encourage Russia to either close or overcharge their supply of natural gas, which Europe totally depends on.
And of course any military response is pure fiction: Russia has nukes, and that's it.