3 ms·

Denial doesn’t mean they were influenced by propaganda. Invasion just didn’t make any sense and even among the opposition there was a belief that Putin is evil

Denial doesn’t mean they were influenced by propaganda. Invasion just didn’t make any sense and even among the opposition there was a belief that Putin is evil but rational.

jacquesm 5y ago
So now the conclusion is he's not rational. Now what? A non rational dictator sitting on a very large number of nuclear weapons is not a good thing for the world.
- ivan_gammel 5y ago
  Now it’s just scary. Let’s hope Ukraine will be able to resist long enough to force Putin to negotiate peace and to forget about any attempt to reach his goals along the Western borders of Russia by military means. It’s too bad that our hope is that enough Russian soldiers will die for Russian public to notice that war is in their house. There’s no popular support for the war, but the pain of war is not yet felt. Unfortunately there’s no other options left. Sanctions are not a short term deterrent.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    > Now it’s just scary. And getting worse. > Let’s hope Ukraine will be able to resist long enough to force Putin to negotiate peace and to forget about any attempt to reach his goals along the Western borders of Russia by military means. I hope with you but the force asymmetry is large. But so far they have been doing much better than could have reasonably been expected. > It’s too bad that our hope is that enough Russian soldiers will die for Russian public to notice that war is in their house. This will be one of the most carefully controlled statistics, there is no way that official channels will get close to communicating these numbers. I've been wondering if this isn't one of those areas where the tech world could really assist. > There’s no popular support for the war, but the pain of war is not yet felt. And likely won't be for weeks or even months. > Unfortunately there’s no other options left. Agreed. > Sanctions are not a short term deterrent. Also agreed, but they are a message, especially if those sanctions hurt the EU as well. I would be happy to shut down the heat here if that's what it took to get the EU completely disconnected from Russian gas. It would be very annoying but we'd live, my grandparents went through far worse than that. And I've been trying to figure out how I can really help Ukrainian refugees.
    - ivan_gammel 5y ago
      >I hope with you but the force asymmetry is large. But so far they have been doing much better than could have reasonably been expected. It is not that large. I remember an estimate of some strategist that you need 5x more firepower to win a battle in urban environment (cannot find the link, sorry). Even if Russia sends 20-30% of its entire army and national guard to Ukraine, this would mean only a parity with highly motivated defenders. Russia certainly has better equipment and air support, but it may still take a lot of time and casualties will be high.
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        Yes, this is pretty accurate. 3:1 to 5:1 against entrenched defenders on home turf. Very frustrating all this. Just one of Putin's entourage showing some courage would deal with this.

Denial doesn’t mean they were influenced by propaganda. Invasion just didn’t make any sense and even among the opposition there was a belief that Putin is evil but rational.

jacquesm 5y ago

So now the conclusion is he's not rational. Now what? A non rational dictator sitting on a very large number of nuclear weapons is not a good thing for the world.

ivan_gammel 5y ago
Now it’s just scary. Let’s hope Ukraine will be able to resist long enough to force Putin to negotiate peace and to forget about any attempt to reach his goals along the Western borders of Russia by military means. It’s too bad that our hope is that enough Russian soldiers will die for Russian public to notice that war is in their house. There’s no popular support for the war, but the pain of war is not yet felt. Unfortunately there’s no other options left. Sanctions are not a short term deterrent.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  > Now it’s just scary. And getting worse. > Let’s hope Ukraine will be able to resist long enough to force Putin to negotiate peace and to forget about any attempt to reach his goals along the Western borders of Russia by military means. I hope with you but the force asymmetry is large. But so far they have been doing much better than could have reasonably been expected. > It’s too bad that our hope is that enough Russian soldiers will die for Russian public to notice that war is in their house. This will be one of the most carefully controlled statistics, there is no way that official channels will get close to communicating these numbers. I've been wondering if this isn't one of those areas where the tech world could really assist. > There’s no popular support for the war, but the pain of war is not yet felt. And likely won't be for weeks or even months. > Unfortunately there’s no other options left. Agreed. > Sanctions are not a short term deterrent. Also agreed, but they are a message, especially if those sanctions hurt the EU as well. I would be happy to shut down the heat here if that's what it took to get the EU completely disconnected from Russian gas. It would be very annoying but we'd live, my grandparents went through far worse than that. And I've been trying to figure out how I can really help Ukrainian refugees.
  - ivan_gammel 5y ago
    >I hope with you but the force asymmetry is large. But so far they have been doing much better than could have reasonably been expected. It is not that large. I remember an estimate of some strategist that you need 5x more firepower to win a battle in urban environment (cannot find the link, sorry). Even if Russia sends 20-30% of its entire army and national guard to Ukraine, this would mean only a parity with highly motivated defenders. Russia certainly has better equipment and air support, but it may still take a lot of time and casualties will be high.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      Yes, this is pretty accurate. 3:1 to 5:1 against entrenched defenders on home turf. Very frustrating all this. Just one of Putin's entourage showing some courage would deal with this.