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He is entirely rational, it has been known since forever that Ukraine is the brightest of red lines and that Russia would respond in this way. You can’t pin thi

He is entirely rational, it has been known since forever that Ukraine is the brightest of red lines and that Russia would respond in this way. You can’t pin this on crazy, pretty much anyone else from the Russian elite would have done the same thing. Given that the CIA predicted this back in 2008 I would image there would be no change to their assessment.

sofixa 5y ago
The invasion of Ukraine is anything but rational. There's simply no way that ends well for Russia without some enormous doses of wishful thinking and fairy dust. The majority of people of Ukraine won't accept a Russian installed puppet government, and would receive help from abroad, so how exactly does Putin intend on ruling by force a country with 40 million citizens most of whom don't want him to?
- cjbgkagh 5y ago
  Russia isn’t there to occupy permanently, they want neutrality in Ukraine’s constitution and there are a number of ways that can happen. They might incorporate the separatist areas as a buffer for the Black Sea.
  - sofixa 5y ago
    But they can't dictate Ukraine's constitution and government and expect the locals to fight against that, or at the very least overthrow the lot the second the Russian troops leave.
    - cjbgkagh 5y ago
      They’ll take Ukraine’s weapons with them and promise they’ll be back if Ukraine tries to rearm. Ukraine will be left defenseless, but they have EU on one side and Russia on the other. So even without weapons they’ll be safe. It’s not like Russia will let anyone else invade them. Russia will make lifting sanctions as a condition of leaving. I would expect things to go back to normal very quickly.
      - CRConrad 5y ago
        > Ukraine will be left defenseless, but they have EU on one side and Russia on the other. So, exactly like now, then. > So even without weapons they’ll be safe. Yeah, because the ongoing war is such a shining example of how safe it is to be a defenseless neighbour to Russia.

sofixa 5y ago

The invasion of Ukraine is anything but rational. There's simply no way that ends well for Russia without some enormous doses of wishful thinking and fairy dust. The majority of people of Ukraine won't accept a Russian installed puppet government, and would receive help from abroad, so how exactly does Putin intend on ruling by force a country with 40 million citizens most of whom don't want him to?

cjbgkagh 5y ago
Russia isn’t there to occupy permanently, they want neutrality in Ukraine’s constitution and there are a number of ways that can happen. They might incorporate the separatist areas as a buffer for the Black Sea.
- sofixa 5y ago
  But they can't dictate Ukraine's constitution and government and expect the locals to fight against that, or at the very least overthrow the lot the second the Russian troops leave.
  - cjbgkagh 5y ago
    They’ll take Ukraine’s weapons with them and promise they’ll be back if Ukraine tries to rearm. Ukraine will be left defenseless, but they have EU on one side and Russia on the other. So even without weapons they’ll be safe. It’s not like Russia will let anyone else invade them. Russia will make lifting sanctions as a condition of leaving. I would expect things to go back to normal very quickly.
    - CRConrad 5y ago
      > Ukraine will be left defenseless, but they have EU on one side and Russia on the other. So, exactly like now, then. > So even without weapons they’ll be safe. Yeah, because the ongoing war is such a shining example of how safe it is to be a defenseless neighbour to Russia.