4 ms·

This is an empty threat from Putin, he may be close to a madman but he is not stupid. Attacking NATO will mean his removal from power, most likely by someone w

This is an empty threat from Putin, he may be close to a madman but he is not stupid. Attacking NATO will mean his removal from power, most likely by someone within his own ranks. If Sweden or Finland wants in, then NATO should comply as fast as possible.

belter 5y ago
Technically, if there were attacked this evening, nobody in the US or EU would come to help them. They would be AND are in the same situation as Ukraine.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  You may be right about the US, but you are probably wrong about the EU.
  - belter 5y ago
    Everybody would wish them well, argue they have a strong army and can resist the Russian army, but no sorry, no Spanish or German or French troops dying for Finland or Sweden any time soon. They better hurry up.
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Security_and_Defence_Policy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Security_and_Defence_Po...
      - FrenchAmerican 5y ago
        Thanks for the reference, I has not heard of this CSDP. However, if I was quite sure nobody would sent troops to Ukraine, Sweden sounds very close to my French ears. Finland is more difficult to defend but the Southern part of Sweden, the most inhabited, is close enough to project troops rapidly. The USA would also be able to send fighters and bombers from the Thule airbase to bomb troups on the northern part of Sweden, as well as English airforce from Scotland. Other smaller airforces from Norway, Belgium, etc will help avoiding air superiority to Russia. The USA, the UK and France would deploy their fleet with their aircraft carriers. Furthermore, my feeling is that France and the UK would send troops to Sweden. Germany would provide at least transport and material support as it did in previous cases (first war against Iraq, current anti-djihadist operations in Sahel). Germany avoid sending troops abroad but discreetly enables France and the USA for example with support. The public opinions of at least those three countries would be strong against Russia now that Putin's intentions have been revealed. Southern countries of EU would react too, at minimum by blocking access to the Atlantic through the Mediterranean sea, as well as support of all kinds. I don't feel being culturally close to Ukraine. Attacking Sweden is just a direct attack to the West. I feel closer to Sweden than to the Baltic states. Not that I don't support Ukraine 100% against Russia. I don't know if France is secretly sending large amounts of weapons to Ukraine. I wish we were but I doubt it - Macron always sides with big corporate's interests and French are the first investors in Russia. Germany also tends to put business first towards Russia. But Sweden is different. It's the West. Finland has its own strategy towards Russia. If Sweden ask.for help, I don't see western countries react as they do these days with Ukraine (eg ineffective economic sanctions). I think it would have been the same before Ukraine's invasion but because of it, my opinion is that we would send troops. Even I would enlist (boy, I'd need training just to get in shape and learn to shoot - so I'd probably be put somewhere at the supply chain or driving some truck.
        jacquesm 5y ago
        > Thanks for the reference, I has not heard of this CSDP. Ok. > However, if I was quite sure nobody would sent troops to Ukraine, Sweden sounds very close to my French ears. It isn't. Poland is. > Finland is more difficult to defend but the Southern part of Sweden, the most inhabited, is close enough to project troops rapidly. Yes, through Kaliningrad, but Sweden is amongst friends on all sides and Kaliningrad is an enclave that is relatively vulnerable and if it is used as an offensive base then it will be fair game. There is another, much longer and more vulnerable route through the strait between Finland and Estonia, I don't see that one working or working for long if Sweden and Finland would come under attack by Russia. Besides the obvious problems for Russia to operate on multiple fronts. The Northern route is vulnerable and extremely long, there is hardly any infrastructure there. > The USA would also be able to send fighters and bombers from the Thule airbase to bomb troups on the northern part of Sweden, as well as English airforce from Scotland. Other smaller airforces from Norway, Belgium, etc will help avoiding air superiority to Russia. This all depends on what Russia intends to do, which nobody really knows. I see only very few realistic options: they are bluffing, or they are utterly deranged. Assuming the latter, all bets are off, Putin might skip all of the preliminaries and drop a nuke on Stockholm, knowing that there is no way they are going to hold territory there to begin with. This would be an escalation the likes of which defies rational thought. I have family in Latvia, Poland and Romania, and know people from both Russia and Ukraine. This whole conflict is extremely stressful, I've seen it coming for years and have already acted on that and it pisses me off that we have not done more to deal with Russia when the time was right. As for Finland and their defense: Finland is armed to teeth, has a very capable military and the Soviets have never really left Finland after World War II, which is the Finnish way of reminding the Soviets that if they invade they run a good chance of becoming a permanent fixture on Finnish soil. They didn't win but they made it pretty costly, and Finland never forgot that lesson. >
- foogazi 5y ago
  Do Sweden or Finland have any mutual defense agreements themselves or with other countries (Norway?) - or is NATO the only club in Europe ?
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    No, Europe is the only club in Europe and both Sweden and Finland are part of the EU Security pact. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Security_and_Defence_Policy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Security_and_Defence_Po... NATO is trans continental.
- jopsen 5y ago
  > Technically, if there were attacked this evening, nobody in the US or EU would come to help them. Nobody would bound by a public alliance to help them. We don't know if secret agreements exists? But I guess such agreements would be easier to not honor. And just because NATO isn't required to intervene, that's not the same as they wouldn't. In theory it's a bit like Ukraine, except Finland and Sweden are less corrupt, more wealthy, etc.
- toxik 5y ago
  Let me get this straight, you believe that if Russia invaded northern Europe outright, central and south Europe would not intervene? I guess some topics aren’t great to discuss on HN.
  - belter 5y ago
    Its two non NATO members. Europe would not do for them what does not do for Ukraine.
    - toxik 5y ago
      You are completely ignorant of the current status and history of Europe. An attempted invasion of Finland and Sweden would be an unambiguous declaration of war on the European Union, there is no other interpretation. China would, no doubt, take such an opportunity to move on its military goals (eg Taiwan). It would mark the beginning of a third world war. If you don't even believe that the EU would defend its own territory, well, you are just simply insane.
      - belter 5y ago
        Its not a question of being insane. It's different if you can have your boys back in body bags. You forgot this is the second war in European territory after the Yugoslavian wars. For months Sarajevo was being shelled and nothing was done until the US decided it was time to bomb. The Netherlands had a full battalion protecting a Bosnian enclave and let 7000 men be killed in front of their eyes. The Dutch government was not willing to order an air strike to protect their own troops. Unless it's NATO, I guarantee you, nothing will be done. They are not even willing to cut gas import from Russia....
        toxik 5y ago
        The Balkan situation was much more similar to what's going on in Ukraine right now, there was really no immediate threat to the rest of Europe. Invading especially Sweden is completely different in this regard. If Sweden, why not Denmark, the Baltics, etc. Finland is unique as it has historically been both Swedish and Russian territory, and borders both, but it is still nowhere near as ambiguous as Ukraine. There will be no breakaway provinces in Finland like Donetsk and Luhansk, there was no mass movement of Russian nationals to Finland during Soviet times as there was throughout the Soviet union. There is very little footing for Russian sentiment in Finland, and Finnish culture is at its core defined by the atrocities committed in the Civil War following the fall of the Tzar, and later the Winter War and Continuation Wars with the Soviet Union. Wars with Russia is part of Finnish DNA. It is just a completely different situation to what goes on in the former east bloc.

belter 5y ago

Technically, if there were attacked this evening, nobody in the US or EU would come to help them. They would be AND are in the same situation as Ukraine.

jacquesm 5y ago
You may be right about the US, but you are probably wrong about the EU.
- belter 5y ago
  Everybody would wish them well, argue they have a strong army and can resist the Russian army, but no sorry, no Spanish or German or French troops dying for Finland or Sweden any time soon. They better hurry up.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Security_and_Defence_Policy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Security_and_Defence_Po...
    - FrenchAmerican 5y ago
      Thanks for the reference, I has not heard of this CSDP. However, if I was quite sure nobody would sent troops to Ukraine, Sweden sounds very close to my French ears. Finland is more difficult to defend but the Southern part of Sweden, the most inhabited, is close enough to project troops rapidly. The USA would also be able to send fighters and bombers from the Thule airbase to bomb troups on the northern part of Sweden, as well as English airforce from Scotland. Other smaller airforces from Norway, Belgium, etc will help avoiding air superiority to Russia. The USA, the UK and France would deploy their fleet with their aircraft carriers. Furthermore, my feeling is that France and the UK would send troops to Sweden. Germany would provide at least transport and material support as it did in previous cases (first war against Iraq, current anti-djihadist operations in Sahel). Germany avoid sending troops abroad but discreetly enables France and the USA for example with support. The public opinions of at least those three countries would be strong against Russia now that Putin's intentions have been revealed. Southern countries of EU would react too, at minimum by blocking access to the Atlantic through the Mediterranean sea, as well as support of all kinds. I don't feel being culturally close to Ukraine. Attacking Sweden is just a direct attack to the West. I feel closer to Sweden than to the Baltic states. Not that I don't support Ukraine 100% against Russia. I don't know if France is secretly sending large amounts of weapons to Ukraine. I wish we were but I doubt it - Macron always sides with big corporate's interests and French are the first investors in Russia. Germany also tends to put business first towards Russia. But Sweden is different. It's the West. Finland has its own strategy towards Russia. If Sweden ask.for help, I don't see western countries react as they do these days with Ukraine (eg ineffective economic sanctions). I think it would have been the same before Ukraine's invasion but because of it, my opinion is that we would send troops. Even I would enlist (boy, I'd need training just to get in shape and learn to shoot - so I'd probably be put somewhere at the supply chain or driving some truck.
      - jacquesm 5y ago
        > Thanks for the reference, I has not heard of this CSDP. Ok. > However, if I was quite sure nobody would sent troops to Ukraine, Sweden sounds very close to my French ears. It isn't. Poland is. > Finland is more difficult to defend but the Southern part of Sweden, the most inhabited, is close enough to project troops rapidly. Yes, through Kaliningrad, but Sweden is amongst friends on all sides and Kaliningrad is an enclave that is relatively vulnerable and if it is used as an offensive base then it will be fair game. There is another, much longer and more vulnerable route through the strait between Finland and Estonia, I don't see that one working or working for long if Sweden and Finland would come under attack by Russia. Besides the obvious problems for Russia to operate on multiple fronts. The Northern route is vulnerable and extremely long, there is hardly any infrastructure there. > The USA would also be able to send fighters and bombers from the Thule airbase to bomb troups on the northern part of Sweden, as well as English airforce from Scotland. Other smaller airforces from Norway, Belgium, etc will help avoiding air superiority to Russia. This all depends on what Russia intends to do, which nobody really knows. I see only very few realistic options: they are bluffing, or they are utterly deranged. Assuming the latter, all bets are off, Putin might skip all of the preliminaries and drop a nuke on Stockholm, knowing that there is no way they are going to hold territory there to begin with. This would be an escalation the likes of which defies rational thought. I have family in Latvia, Poland and Romania, and know people from both Russia and Ukraine. This whole conflict is extremely stressful, I've seen it coming for years and have already acted on that and it pisses me off that we have not done more to deal with Russia when the time was right. As for Finland and their defense: Finland is armed to teeth, has a very capable military and the Soviets have never really left Finland after World War II, which is the Finnish way of reminding the Soviets that if they invade they run a good chance of becoming a permanent fixture on Finnish soil. They didn't win but they made it pretty costly, and Finland never forgot that lesson. >
foogazi 5y ago
Do Sweden or Finland have any mutual defense agreements themselves or with other countries (Norway?) - or is NATO the only club in Europe ?
- jacquesm 5y ago
  No, Europe is the only club in Europe and both Sweden and Finland are part of the EU Security pact. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Security_and_Defence_Policy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Security_and_Defence_Po... NATO is trans continental.
jopsen 5y ago
> Technically, if there were attacked this evening, nobody in the US or EU would come to help them. Nobody would bound by a public alliance to help them. We don't know if secret agreements exists? But I guess such agreements would be easier to not honor. And just because NATO isn't required to intervene, that's not the same as they wouldn't. In theory it's a bit like Ukraine, except Finland and Sweden are less corrupt, more wealthy, etc.
toxik 5y ago
Let me get this straight, you believe that if Russia invaded northern Europe outright, central and south Europe would not intervene? I guess some topics aren’t great to discuss on HN.
- belter 5y ago
  Its two non NATO members. Europe would not do for them what does not do for Ukraine.
  - toxik 5y ago
    You are completely ignorant of the current status and history of Europe. An attempted invasion of Finland and Sweden would be an unambiguous declaration of war on the European Union, there is no other interpretation. China would, no doubt, take such an opportunity to move on its military goals (eg Taiwan). It would mark the beginning of a third world war. If you don't even believe that the EU would defend its own territory, well, you are just simply insane.
    - belter 5y ago
      Its not a question of being insane. It's different if you can have your boys back in body bags. You forgot this is the second war in European territory after the Yugoslavian wars. For months Sarajevo was being shelled and nothing was done until the US decided it was time to bomb. The Netherlands had a full battalion protecting a Bosnian enclave and let 7000 men be killed in front of their eyes. The Dutch government was not willing to order an air strike to protect their own troops. Unless it's NATO, I guarantee you, nothing will be done. They are not even willing to cut gas import from Russia....
      - toxik 5y ago
        The Balkan situation was much more similar to what's going on in Ukraine right now, there was really no immediate threat to the rest of Europe. Invading especially Sweden is completely different in this regard. If Sweden, why not Denmark, the Baltics, etc. Finland is unique as it has historically been both Swedish and Russian territory, and borders both, but it is still nowhere near as ambiguous as Ukraine. There will be no breakaway provinces in Finland like Donetsk and Luhansk, there was no mass movement of Russian nationals to Finland during Soviet times as there was throughout the Soviet union. There is very little footing for Russian sentiment in Finland, and Finnish culture is at its core defined by the atrocities committed in the Civil War following the fall of the Tzar, and later the Winter War and Continuation Wars with the Soviet Union. Wars with Russia is part of Finnish DNA. It is just a completely different situation to what goes on in the former east bloc.