4 ms·

Yeah, I bet they didn't count on losing the Champions League final. That's about the worst of impact so far.

ch4s3 5y ago
Germany froze the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project. Russia has a ton of reserves, but this will hobble them economically once the reserves are drawn down. The UK and US are debating seizing property belonging to Putin's circle of supporters, which could be very precarious for him domestically. Protests are breaking out in St. Petersburg and Moscow, and videos are turning up of captured Russian soldiers saying they didn't want to be part of the invasion. Things aren't going swimmingly for Putin.
- VBprogrammer 5y ago
  Freezing Nord Steam 2 was an obvious consequence. It must have been priced in to what ever calculation Putin is making. It wasn't in operation yet so it's not clear to me that it has any significant financial impact. Similarly, assets belonging to Putin and his supporters will have been well hidden before this kicked off. I agree though, the one positive light is the protests and people putting their lives on the line to come out against the invasion.
  - CRConrad 5y ago
    > Freezing Nord Steam 2 was an obvious consequence. It must have been priced in to what ever calculation Putin is making. It wasn't in operation yet so it's not clear to me that it has any significant financial impact. What would have shown some balls would have been turning off Nord Steam 1. Germans do own woolly sweaters to wear if it's cold in their homes, and Germany does have forests to use for firewood for at least one winter.
- 5e92cb50239222b 5y ago
  > captured Russian soldiers saying they didn't want to be part of the invasion I am following the conflict very closely (due to having many friends and relatives on both sides). While there are some videos with what looks like Russian soldiers (some of whom look no older than 18-19, so they're definitely conscripts), I wouldn't say there have been very many of them, and what would you say in a similar situation? "Yes, I was happy to come along to free your country from the 'nazis'", and risk to be taken around the building and shot as you "attempted to escape"? To be clear, I am 100% behind Ukraine.
  - ch4s3 5y ago
    > I wouldn't say there have been very many of them, and what would you say in a similar situation? I don't think it takes many to cause domestic issues. Generally captured American soldiers, who aren't conscripts, hold the line. There are noteworthy exceptions like John Walker Lindh which caused a lot of controversy domestically. It's worth noting that seeing lots of dead conscript soldiers coming home in coffins helped bring an end to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, and there's a serious quagmire risk here for Russia. > To be clear, I am 100% behind Ukraine. Same.
    - CRConrad 5y ago
      > I don't think it takes many to cause domestic issues. If their families and friends get to see them, and if they're actually genuine. As for the first, it's doubtful, given the Russian state media censorship; as for the second, the Russians are of course going to claim that they're all fake, Ukrainian stooges pretending to be Russian soldiers. And, unfortunately, maybe they -- or at least some of them -- are. Wouldn't you be tempted to try that, if you were forced to fight your war largely on social and mass media, like the Ukrainians are? I think I would. (What speaks against it is the risk of it backfiring, if it's found out. So maybe I wouldn't try it; I don't know.)
kzrdude 5y ago
Likely bigger military losses than expected. Likely bigger sanctions coming than expected. China is not staying out of it completely. I'm optimistic for Ukraine delivering a military defeat to Russia, even if it will cost a lot of blood and tears

Germany froze the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project. Russia has a ton of reserves, but this will hobble them economically once the reserves are drawn down. The UK and US are debating seizing property belonging to Putin's circle of supporters, which could be very precarious for him domestically. Protests are breaking out in St. Petersburg and Moscow, and videos are turning up of captured Russian soldiers saying they didn't want to be part of the invasion. Things aren't going swimmingly for Putin.

VBprogrammer 5y ago
Freezing Nord Steam 2 was an obvious consequence. It must have been priced in to what ever calculation Putin is making. It wasn't in operation yet so it's not clear to me that it has any significant financial impact. Similarly, assets belonging to Putin and his supporters will have been well hidden before this kicked off. I agree though, the one positive light is the protests and people putting their lives on the line to come out against the invasion.
- CRConrad 5y ago
  > Freezing Nord Steam 2 was an obvious consequence. It must have been priced in to what ever calculation Putin is making. It wasn't in operation yet so it's not clear to me that it has any significant financial impact. What would have shown some balls would have been turning off Nord Steam 1. Germans do own woolly sweaters to wear if it's cold in their homes, and Germany does have forests to use for firewood for at least one winter.
5e92cb50239222b 5y ago
> captured Russian soldiers saying they didn't want to be part of the invasion I am following the conflict very closely (due to having many friends and relatives on both sides). While there are some videos with what looks like Russian soldiers (some of whom look no older than 18-19, so they're definitely conscripts), I wouldn't say there have been very many of them, and what would you say in a similar situation? "Yes, I was happy to come along to free your country from the 'nazis'", and risk to be taken around the building and shot as you "attempted to escape"? To be clear, I am 100% behind Ukraine.
- ch4s3 5y ago
  > I wouldn't say there have been very many of them, and what would you say in a similar situation? I don't think it takes many to cause domestic issues. Generally captured American soldiers, who aren't conscripts, hold the line. There are noteworthy exceptions like John Walker Lindh which caused a lot of controversy domestically. It's worth noting that seeing lots of dead conscript soldiers coming home in coffins helped bring an end to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, and there's a serious quagmire risk here for Russia. > To be clear, I am 100% behind Ukraine. Same.
  - CRConrad 5y ago
    > I don't think it takes many to cause domestic issues. If their families and friends get to see them, and if they're actually genuine. As for the first, it's doubtful, given the Russian state media censorship; as for the second, the Russians are of course going to claim that they're all fake, Ukrainian stooges pretending to be Russian soldiers. And, unfortunately, maybe they -- or at least some of them -- are. Wouldn't you be tempted to try that, if you were forced to fight your war largely on social and mass media, like the Ukrainians are? I think I would. (What speaks against it is the risk of it backfiring, if it's found out. So maybe I wouldn't try it; I don't know.)

kzrdude 5y ago

Likely bigger military losses than expected. Likely bigger sanctions coming than expected. China is not staying out of it completely. I'm optimistic for Ukraine delivering a military defeat to Russia, even if it will cost a lot of blood and tears