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It's like Russia was expecting to be able to conduct the largest aggressive conventional military operation in Europe since WW2 and not completely flip the appl

It's like Russia was expecting to be able to conduct the largest aggressive conventional military operation in Europe since WW2 and not completely flip the apple cart of the global order.

ch4s3 5y ago
It's starting to look like Putin may have miscalculated here.
- VBprogrammer 5y ago
  Yeah, I bet they didn't count on losing the Champions League final. That's about the worst of impact so far.
  - ch4s3 5y ago
    Germany froze the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project. Russia has a ton of reserves, but this will hobble them economically once the reserves are drawn down. The UK and US are debating seizing property belonging to Putin's circle of supporters, which could be very precarious for him domestically. Protests are breaking out in St. Petersburg and Moscow, and videos are turning up of captured Russian soldiers saying they didn't want to be part of the invasion. Things aren't going swimmingly for Putin.
    - VBprogrammer 5y ago
      Freezing Nord Steam 2 was an obvious consequence. It must have been priced in to what ever calculation Putin is making. It wasn't in operation yet so it's not clear to me that it has any significant financial impact. Similarly, assets belonging to Putin and his supporters will have been well hidden before this kicked off. I agree though, the one positive light is the protests and people putting their lives on the line to come out against the invasion.
      - CRConrad 5y ago
        > Freezing Nord Steam 2 was an obvious consequence. It must have been priced in to what ever calculation Putin is making. It wasn't in operation yet so it's not clear to me that it has any significant financial impact. What would have shown some balls would have been turning off Nord Steam 1. Germans do own woolly sweaters to wear if it's cold in their homes, and Germany does have forests to use for firewood for at least one winter.
    - 5e92cb50239222b 5y ago
      > captured Russian soldiers saying they didn't want to be part of the invasion I am following the conflict very closely (due to having many friends and relatives on both sides). While there are some videos with what looks like Russian soldiers (some of whom look no older than 18-19, so they're definitely conscripts), I wouldn't say there have been very many of them, and what would you say in a similar situation? "Yes, I was happy to come along to free your country from the 'nazis'", and risk to be taken around the building and shot as you "attempted to escape"? To be clear, I am 100% behind Ukraine.
      - ch4s3 5y ago
        > I wouldn't say there have been very many of them, and what would you say in a similar situation? I don't think it takes many to cause domestic issues. Generally captured American soldiers, who aren't conscripts, hold the line. There are noteworthy exceptions like John Walker Lindh which caused a lot of controversy domestically. It's worth noting that seeing lots of dead conscript soldiers coming home in coffins helped bring an end to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, and there's a serious quagmire risk here for Russia. > To be clear, I am 100% behind Ukraine. Same.
        CRConrad 5y ago
        > I don't think it takes many to cause domestic issues. If their families and friends get to see them, and if they're actually genuine. As for the first, it's doubtful, given the Russian state media censorship; as for the second, the Russians are of course going to claim that they're all fake, Ukrainian stooges pretending to be Russian soldiers. And, unfortunately, maybe they -- or at least some of them -- are. Wouldn't you be tempted to try that, if you were forced to fight your war largely on social and mass media, like the Ukrainians are? I think I would. (What speaks against it is the risk of it backfiring, if it's found out. So maybe I wouldn't try it; I don't know.)
  - kzrdude 5y ago
    Likely bigger military losses than expected. Likely bigger sanctions coming than expected. China is not staying out of it completely. I'm optimistic for Ukraine delivering a military defeat to Russia, even if it will cost a lot of blood and tears
- pacetherace 5y ago
  Really? He is fighting to have veto over who gets to join NATO. It will be a victory for him if he is able to freeze NATO membership to the current number. Russian economy maybe be ruined for next decade or longer and most likely Putin will be dead or retired by then but he would be looked in Russia as the guy who keep Russia relevant. Putin is embarrassing US and NATO by destroying Ukraine while they watch helplessly. I have utmost sympathy for Ukraine but where were the angry people when US attacked Iraq?
  - 6gvONxR4sf7o 5y ago
    > I have utmost sympathy for Ukraine but where were the angry people when US attacked Iraq? There were massive protests. I was at one in San Francisco.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    He will be the guy that turned Russia into a complete pariah. At some point other Russians in power will realize that Putin is the cause of their troubles, that's one of the better roads to an acceptable outcome here.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > I have utmost sympathy for Ukraine but where were the angry people when US attacked Iraq? In many cases, calling for George W. Bush and much of the military and diplomatic leadership of the US to be punished for the crime of aggression (initially) and war crimes (based on the conduct of the illegal-from-the-start war).
    - Ekaros 5y ago
      Should really be extended to much further. To soldiers, to financial supporters of those and their parties, to voters. All complicit and hands covered in blood.
  - bjtitus 5y ago
    You replied to a report about two more Northern European countries joining NATO who seem to have been against it before by saying Putin is freezing NATO membership where it is? It seems like things are going completely opposite of the way you describe them.
iso1631 5y ago
In terms of troops and materiel deployed in the first few days, how does this compare to (either) Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam or Korea?
- blacksmith_tb 5y ago
  *largest in Europe (I am going to guess that was the intention) But I agree with your skepticism, the world has unfortunately seen plenty of larger wars, mainly we've just had a short peaceful spell lately, and it's an unpleasant shock to stumble into another.
- stevenwoo 5y ago
  at it's peak both the USA and USSR committed approximately 100,000 military personnel to their respective occupations of Afghanistan. From reading a book about Vietnam/American war, at the peak the USA committed 500,000 military personnel to occupy South Vietnam, along with various other countries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Afghan_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Afghan_War https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2016/07/06/a-timeline-of-u-s-troop-levels-in-afghanistan-since-2001/ https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2016/07/06/... presumably they've committed that or more than that to this operation since the navies are involved and it's easier logistically to get to https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2014/03/world/infographic-ukraine-russia-military/ https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2014/03/world/infographic-uk...
- siekmanj 5y ago
  From some cursory googling: Afghanistan peak US troops: 102,000 (2011) Gulf war peak US troops: 700,000 (1990-1991) Iraq peak US troops: range from 168,000 - 192,000 (2007) Vietnam peak US troops: 543,000 (1969) Korea peak US troops: 320,000, unclear what year edit: obviously, Russia's involvement in Ukraine over the last few days would be by far the biggest operation in Europe since WW2. Just not globally (by a long shot).
  - iso1631 5y ago
    Thanks, useful to compare, Putin has a similar amount of troops as Iraq II then, although with shorter supply lines. Given how difficult the US had it in occupying both Iraq and Afghanistan, and the damage it did the country, this could well end Russia, at least for another 30 years. I was too young to really get the scale of the first gulf war. Just transporting 700,000 troops seems astounding, let alone keeping them equipped in enemy territory.
zucked 5y ago
This is all part of the plan. If you run around lighting a dozen tiny fires around the house, even the best firefighting efforts might miss one of them before it becomes an inferno. Russian strategy, time and time again, has been to sow chaos. They don't have the might, economy, or means to expand beyond their own sandbox, so they get by throwing sand at passersby. It's death by a thousand paper cuts; worldwide guerilla warfare in the economy, societal, and minds of their enemies. TLDR; they're fucking with our collective heads.
squarefoot 5y ago
Putin thought he could have Russian troops enter Kyiv without resistance, quickly overthrow the democratically elected Ukrainian president and government, put some of his sock puppets in place, then wait some time for things to settle to normal, and withdraw letting Ukraine slowly transition itself back to a de facto Russian colony. But Ukrainians are fighting back, and although they're no match for the Russian army, the risk of a blood bath of both Ukrainian and Russian people pose some dangers for his already not stellar public acceptance. Let's not forget that many Russians have relatives and friends among Ukrainian people; a lot of them don't want this war; that's why he is sending peace messages: if shit hits the fan then he'll say "it's the Ukrainians who didn't accept it, not me". For the first time he appeared in trouble. If Ukrainians heroic resistance lasts enough time, the consequences could very likely undermine Putin's position. I don't have many hopes sanctions alone will obtain serious results; they're crafted to be just above a minor nuisance not to encourage Russia to either close or overcharge their supply of natural gas, which Europe totally depends on. And of course any military response is pure fiction: Russia has nukes, and that's it.
roughly 5y ago
The Russian goal _is_ to flip the apple cart of the global order. The global order, as Russia perceives it, sucks for Russia, and they’ve been pretty loud on that point for a long time.
- iostream24 5y ago

It's like Russia was expecting to be able to conduct the largest aggressive conventional military operation in Europe since WW2 and not completely flip the apple cart of the global order.

ch4s3 5y ago

It's starting to look like Putin may have miscalculated here.

VBprogrammer 5y ago
Yeah, I bet they didn't count on losing the Champions League final. That's about the worst of impact so far.
- ch4s3 5y ago
  Germany froze the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project. Russia has a ton of reserves, but this will hobble them economically once the reserves are drawn down. The UK and US are debating seizing property belonging to Putin's circle of supporters, which could be very precarious for him domestically. Protests are breaking out in St. Petersburg and Moscow, and videos are turning up of captured Russian soldiers saying they didn't want to be part of the invasion. Things aren't going swimmingly for Putin.
  - VBprogrammer 5y ago
    Freezing Nord Steam 2 was an obvious consequence. It must have been priced in to what ever calculation Putin is making. It wasn't in operation yet so it's not clear to me that it has any significant financial impact. Similarly, assets belonging to Putin and his supporters will have been well hidden before this kicked off. I agree though, the one positive light is the protests and people putting their lives on the line to come out against the invasion.
    - CRConrad 5y ago
      > Freezing Nord Steam 2 was an obvious consequence. It must have been priced in to what ever calculation Putin is making. It wasn't in operation yet so it's not clear to me that it has any significant financial impact. What would have shown some balls would have been turning off Nord Steam 1. Germans do own woolly sweaters to wear if it's cold in their homes, and Germany does have forests to use for firewood for at least one winter.
  - 5e92cb50239222b 5y ago
    > captured Russian soldiers saying they didn't want to be part of the invasion I am following the conflict very closely (due to having many friends and relatives on both sides). While there are some videos with what looks like Russian soldiers (some of whom look no older than 18-19, so they're definitely conscripts), I wouldn't say there have been very many of them, and what would you say in a similar situation? "Yes, I was happy to come along to free your country from the 'nazis'", and risk to be taken around the building and shot as you "attempted to escape"? To be clear, I am 100% behind Ukraine.
    - ch4s3 5y ago
      > I wouldn't say there have been very many of them, and what would you say in a similar situation? I don't think it takes many to cause domestic issues. Generally captured American soldiers, who aren't conscripts, hold the line. There are noteworthy exceptions like John Walker Lindh which caused a lot of controversy domestically. It's worth noting that seeing lots of dead conscript soldiers coming home in coffins helped bring an end to the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, and there's a serious quagmire risk here for Russia. > To be clear, I am 100% behind Ukraine. Same.
      - CRConrad 5y ago
        > I don't think it takes many to cause domestic issues. If their families and friends get to see them, and if they're actually genuine. As for the first, it's doubtful, given the Russian state media censorship; as for the second, the Russians are of course going to claim that they're all fake, Ukrainian stooges pretending to be Russian soldiers. And, unfortunately, maybe they -- or at least some of them -- are. Wouldn't you be tempted to try that, if you were forced to fight your war largely on social and mass media, like the Ukrainians are? I think I would. (What speaks against it is the risk of it backfiring, if it's found out. So maybe I wouldn't try it; I don't know.)
- kzrdude 5y ago
  Likely bigger military losses than expected. Likely bigger sanctions coming than expected. China is not staying out of it completely. I'm optimistic for Ukraine delivering a military defeat to Russia, even if it will cost a lot of blood and tears
pacetherace 5y ago
Really? He is fighting to have veto over who gets to join NATO. It will be a victory for him if he is able to freeze NATO membership to the current number. Russian economy maybe be ruined for next decade or longer and most likely Putin will be dead or retired by then but he would be looked in Russia as the guy who keep Russia relevant. Putin is embarrassing US and NATO by destroying Ukraine while they watch helplessly. I have utmost sympathy for Ukraine but where were the angry people when US attacked Iraq?
- 6gvONxR4sf7o 5y ago
  > I have utmost sympathy for Ukraine but where were the angry people when US attacked Iraq? There were massive protests. I was at one in San Francisco.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  He will be the guy that turned Russia into a complete pariah. At some point other Russians in power will realize that Putin is the cause of their troubles, that's one of the better roads to an acceptable outcome here.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > I have utmost sympathy for Ukraine but where were the angry people when US attacked Iraq? In many cases, calling for George W. Bush and much of the military and diplomatic leadership of the US to be punished for the crime of aggression (initially) and war crimes (based on the conduct of the illegal-from-the-start war).
  - Ekaros 5y ago
    Should really be extended to much further. To soldiers, to financial supporters of those and their parties, to voters. All complicit and hands covered in blood.
- bjtitus 5y ago
  You replied to a report about two more Northern European countries joining NATO who seem to have been against it before by saying Putin is freezing NATO membership where it is? It seems like things are going completely opposite of the way you describe them.

iso1631 5y ago

In terms of troops and materiel deployed in the first few days, how does this compare to (either) Iraq, Afghanistan, Vietnam or Korea?

blacksmith_tb 5y ago
*largest in Europe (I am going to guess that was the intention) But I agree with your skepticism, the world has unfortunately seen plenty of larger wars, mainly we've just had a short peaceful spell lately, and it's an unpleasant shock to stumble into another.
stevenwoo 5y ago
at it's peak both the USA and USSR committed approximately 100,000 military personnel to their respective occupations of Afghanistan. From reading a book about Vietnam/American war, at the peak the USA committed 500,000 military personnel to occupy South Vietnam, along with various other countries. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Afghan_War https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet%E2%80%93Afghan_War https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2016/07/06/a-timeline-of-u-s-troop-levels-in-afghanistan-since-2001/ https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2016/07/06/... presumably they've committed that or more than that to this operation since the navies are involved and it's easier logistically to get to https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2014/03/world/infographic-ukraine-russia-military/ https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2014/03/world/infographic-uk...
siekmanj 5y ago
From some cursory googling: Afghanistan peak US troops: 102,000 (2011) Gulf war peak US troops: 700,000 (1990-1991) Iraq peak US troops: range from 168,000 - 192,000 (2007) Vietnam peak US troops: 543,000 (1969) Korea peak US troops: 320,000, unclear what year edit: obviously, Russia's involvement in Ukraine over the last few days would be by far the biggest operation in Europe since WW2. Just not globally (by a long shot).
- iso1631 5y ago
  Thanks, useful to compare, Putin has a similar amount of troops as Iraq II then, although with shorter supply lines. Given how difficult the US had it in occupying both Iraq and Afghanistan, and the damage it did the country, this could well end Russia, at least for another 30 years. I was too young to really get the scale of the first gulf war. Just transporting 700,000 troops seems astounding, let alone keeping them equipped in enemy territory.

zucked 5y ago

This is all part of the plan. If you run around lighting a dozen tiny fires around the house, even the best firefighting efforts might miss one of them before it becomes an inferno. Russian strategy, time and time again, has been to sow chaos. They don't have the might, economy, or means to expand beyond their own sandbox, so they get by throwing sand at passersby. It's death by a thousand paper cuts; worldwide guerilla warfare in the economy, societal, and minds of their enemies. TLDR; they're fucking with our collective heads.

squarefoot 5y ago

Putin thought he could have Russian troops enter Kyiv without resistance, quickly overthrow the democratically elected Ukrainian president and government, put some of his sock puppets in place, then wait some time for things to settle to normal, and withdraw letting Ukraine slowly transition itself back to a de facto Russian colony. But Ukrainians are fighting back, and although they're no match for the Russian army, the risk of a blood bath of both Ukrainian and Russian people pose some dangers for his already not stellar public acceptance. Let's not forget that many Russians have relatives and friends among Ukrainian people; a lot of them don't want this war; that's why he is sending peace messages: if shit hits the fan then he'll say "it's the Ukrainians who didn't accept it, not me". For the first time he appeared in trouble. If Ukrainians heroic resistance lasts enough time, the consequences could very likely undermine Putin's position. I don't have many hopes sanctions alone will obtain serious results; they're crafted to be just above a minor nuisance not to encourage Russia to either close or overcharge their supply of natural gas, which Europe totally depends on. And of course any military response is pure fiction: Russia has nukes, and that's it.

roughly 5y ago

The Russian goal _is_ to flip the apple cart of the global order. The global order, as Russia perceives it, sucks for Russia, and they’ve been pretty loud on that point for a long time.

iostream24 5y ago