7 ms·

China has one dependency they cannot get rid of - Americans buy tons of their stuff, and if they get rid of that, China has a big problem.

by MR4D 5y ago

stickfigure 5y ago
Not just Americans. If all 30 NATO nations threatened to halt trade, China would be in a tough position.
- dylan604 5y ago
  Convincing Americans to stop buy their wares is a huge task. Any political group that halts those wares from coming in would face huge upheaval. People are much more interested in their day to day comfort than something halfway across the globe (from a US perspective).
  - MR4D 5y ago
    I agree completely. However, there are many situations where it can be reduced. For instance, I've heard chatter about people wondering about Apple's exposure to China[0] should China back Russia in the Ukraine conflict. At some point, it would be within Apple's best interest to look at reducing their dependency on a possible opponent. [0] - Obviously we can pick any number of company and country matchups for this discussion, but China is obviously the relevant discussion point to this topic, and Apple is a huge American company, so the example is much less esoteric than others. I'm not picking on Apple here at all.
    - baybal2 5y ago
      iWatches might just got sanctioned because of their glass comes from Russian company with state links. They chose to save on Corning's glass, with dire consequences for themselves.
      - ClumsyPilot 5y ago
        Always nice when a company with 70% margin chooses to save a few pennies
      - ksec 5y ago
        Exactly. Like all things Apple, I have no problem with them choosing money over something else. ( May be I do but it is up to them to decide ) I have problem with them constantly lying ( or spinning ) all the the glass they use are from US Corning.
  - johnzim 5y ago
    A huge task indeed but perhaps less than people think. Chinese imports are heavily overrepresented in certain sectors (Tech for instance) but the US imports far less than most other countries. It's one of the peculiarities of the global economy.
    - nebula8804 5y ago
      Tech is really important. But there is also all the little things that you just interact with on daily life. Things like cutlery, soap dispensers, and so much more. Sure the US could make all this stuff but the country deeply relies on the cost imbalance to maintain the standard of living they have had for decades. Thats most people's entire lives. I am reminded of this Purism phone that you can buy as a US made or China made version. https://shop.puri.sm/shop/librem-5/ https://shop.puri.sm/shop/librem-5/ China: 799$ (now 1200$ due to rising supply chain costs) USA: 2000$ I guess we are lucky in that most of our food and infrastructure related items seems to be local.
      - whatshisface 5y ago
        That specific example is not as revealing as it might seem, because in addition to a difference in supply costs, there's a difference in how much a hypothetical person who doesn't care about money but cares about it being made in the US will pay on top of supply cost differences.
        nebula8804 5y ago
        Yeah I guess you are right, its just that there is not many examples I can provide because they just don't exist at all. Could Apple with their supply chain experience and clout get that 2000$ price down? Yeah probably. But it helps to illustrate my main point: The West has essentially been cheating by exploiting the purchasing power differential for decades and eventually it may finally collapse on them.
        whatshisface 5y ago
        In an idealized situation, every company in the world will all move to a country to make an extra $0.01/unit, if they can all make it and make it reliably.
  - riku_iki 5y ago
    > Convincing Americans to stop buy their wares is a huge task. Its actually super easy, you impose 200% tariff, and people will start buying from Korea, Indonesia, Brasil and India.
    - dylan604 5y ago
      You're skipping the step where all of the US retailers must switch to new suppliers at the flip of a switch. How long does that take before their current supplies run out and customers go else where? Looking at the current supply chain conundrum, I'd suggest that would be a larger issue than you're giving it credit.
      - riku_iki 5y ago
        You can do it gradually (2-3 years). Trump already imposed 25% tariff on China goods, and nothing dramatic happened, and I bet many people switched to goods from other countries. One example: I am into electric guitars, and almost all manufacturers moved from China because of tariff risks.
        dylan604 5y ago
        I still think that the global supply chain debacle was partly due to the Trump tariffs. People were already scrambling to find new suppliers before the pandemic. The situation is a culmination of all of the stuff that happened in just a short time frame.
        riku_iki 5y ago
        This disruption actually makes things worse for China, since once/if new supply chain components established outside China, it will be hard for them to get business back.
        tekknik 5y ago
        It has more to do with ship docks being backlogged. Then when a docks storage fills up, they turn the ship away or make it circle.
- hutzlibu 5y ago
  " If all 30 NATO nations threatened to halt trade" That would be effectivly the same as launching nuclear missiles? Mutual destruction economically.
  - stickfigure 5y ago
    Why do you think that? For the major countries of NATO, China is one of many trading partners. China is only about 16% of US trade. Would it hurt? Sure. But nowhere near as much as having nearly 90% of your major trading partners disappear. NATO coordinated economic action is extremely asymmetric. Compare these two lists: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_pa... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_pa...
  - hodgesrm 5y ago
    > That would be effectivly the same as launching nuclear missiles? Mutual destruction economically. No. Nuclear war potentially would kill many millions of people. Let's keep matters in perspective.
- AniseAbyss 5y ago
  This is the difference between China and Russia. The CCP is in power because it has promised Chinese citizens wealth. China actually really doesn't want to be a pariah.
  - nopenopenopeno 5y ago
    I disagree. I think Putin actually aspires to be more like China. I think the difference between Russia and China today stems from the Soviet Union’s priorities of national independence and socialist ideals. China has played a long-term global strategy that Putin, or virtually any other country’s leaders for that matter, is bound to be jealous of. Ideology can never account for these discrepancies in potential.
- bllguo 5y ago
  and why would that happen? 1. it's utterly, completely out of scope of NATO's purpose 2. Europe does not share America's attitude towards China
- tekknik 5y ago
  So why do we do this already? The longer we way, the more money and influence they get. I don’t buy Chinese goods anymore. If I can’t confirm it didn’t come from China, I don’t buy. If we had govs onboard, and another supplier of chips, this would be easier than you think.

China has one dependency they cannot get rid of - Americans buy tons of their stuff, and if they get rid of that, China has a big problem.

by MR4D 5y ago

China has one dependency they cannot get rid of - Americans buy tons of their stuff, and if they get rid of that, China has a big problem.

stickfigure 5y ago

Not just Americans. If all 30 NATO nations threatened to halt trade, China would be in a tough position.

dylan604 5y ago
Convincing Americans to stop buy their wares is a huge task. Any political group that halts those wares from coming in would face huge upheaval. People are much more interested in their day to day comfort than something halfway across the globe (from a US perspective).
- MR4D 5y ago
  I agree completely. However, there are many situations where it can be reduced. For instance, I've heard chatter about people wondering about Apple's exposure to China[0] should China back Russia in the Ukraine conflict. At some point, it would be within Apple's best interest to look at reducing their dependency on a possible opponent. [0] - Obviously we can pick any number of company and country matchups for this discussion, but China is obviously the relevant discussion point to this topic, and Apple is a huge American company, so the example is much less esoteric than others. I'm not picking on Apple here at all.
  - baybal2 5y ago
    iWatches might just got sanctioned because of their glass comes from Russian company with state links. They chose to save on Corning's glass, with dire consequences for themselves.
    - ClumsyPilot 5y ago
      Always nice when a company with 70% margin chooses to save a few pennies
    - ksec 5y ago
      Exactly. Like all things Apple, I have no problem with them choosing money over something else. ( May be I do but it is up to them to decide ) I have problem with them constantly lying ( or spinning ) all the the glass they use are from US Corning.
- johnzim 5y ago
  A huge task indeed but perhaps less than people think. Chinese imports are heavily overrepresented in certain sectors (Tech for instance) but the US imports far less than most other countries. It's one of the peculiarities of the global economy.
  - nebula8804 5y ago
    Tech is really important. But there is also all the little things that you just interact with on daily life. Things like cutlery, soap dispensers, and so much more. Sure the US could make all this stuff but the country deeply relies on the cost imbalance to maintain the standard of living they have had for decades. Thats most people's entire lives. I am reminded of this Purism phone that you can buy as a US made or China made version. https://shop.puri.sm/shop/librem-5/ https://shop.puri.sm/shop/librem-5/ China: 799$ (now 1200$ due to rising supply chain costs) USA: 2000$ I guess we are lucky in that most of our food and infrastructure related items seems to be local.
    - whatshisface 5y ago
      That specific example is not as revealing as it might seem, because in addition to a difference in supply costs, there's a difference in how much a hypothetical person who doesn't care about money but cares about it being made in the US will pay on top of supply cost differences.
      - nebula8804 5y ago
        Yeah I guess you are right, its just that there is not many examples I can provide because they just don't exist at all. Could Apple with their supply chain experience and clout get that 2000$ price down? Yeah probably. But it helps to illustrate my main point: The West has essentially been cheating by exploiting the purchasing power differential for decades and eventually it may finally collapse on them.
        whatshisface 5y ago
        In an idealized situation, every company in the world will all move to a country to make an extra $0.01/unit, if they can all make it and make it reliably.
- riku_iki 5y ago
  > Convincing Americans to stop buy their wares is a huge task. Its actually super easy, you impose 200% tariff, and people will start buying from Korea, Indonesia, Brasil and India.
  - dylan604 5y ago
    You're skipping the step where all of the US retailers must switch to new suppliers at the flip of a switch. How long does that take before their current supplies run out and customers go else where? Looking at the current supply chain conundrum, I'd suggest that would be a larger issue than you're giving it credit.
    - riku_iki 5y ago
      You can do it gradually (2-3 years). Trump already imposed 25% tariff on China goods, and nothing dramatic happened, and I bet many people switched to goods from other countries. One example: I am into electric guitars, and almost all manufacturers moved from China because of tariff risks.
      - dylan604 5y ago
        I still think that the global supply chain debacle was partly due to the Trump tariffs. People were already scrambling to find new suppliers before the pandemic. The situation is a culmination of all of the stuff that happened in just a short time frame.
        riku_iki 5y ago
        This disruption actually makes things worse for China, since once/if new supply chain components established outside China, it will be hard for them to get business back.
        tekknik 5y ago
        It has more to do with ship docks being backlogged. Then when a docks storage fills up, they turn the ship away or make it circle.
hutzlibu 5y ago
" If all 30 NATO nations threatened to halt trade" That would be effectivly the same as launching nuclear missiles? Mutual destruction economically.
- stickfigure 5y ago
  Why do you think that? For the major countries of NATO, China is one of many trading partners. China is only about 16% of US trade. Would it hurt? Sure. But nowhere near as much as having nearly 90% of your major trading partners disappear. NATO coordinated economic action is extremely asymmetric. Compare these two lists: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_pa... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_pa...
- hodgesrm 5y ago
  > That would be effectivly the same as launching nuclear missiles? Mutual destruction economically. No. Nuclear war potentially would kill many millions of people. Let's keep matters in perspective.
AniseAbyss 5y ago
This is the difference between China and Russia. The CCP is in power because it has promised Chinese citizens wealth. China actually really doesn't want to be a pariah.
- nopenopenopeno 5y ago
  I disagree. I think Putin actually aspires to be more like China. I think the difference between Russia and China today stems from the Soviet Union’s priorities of national independence and socialist ideals. China has played a long-term global strategy that Putin, or virtually any other country’s leaders for that matter, is bound to be jealous of. Ideology can never account for these discrepancies in potential.
bllguo 5y ago
and why would that happen? 1. it's utterly, completely out of scope of NATO's purpose 2. Europe does not share America's attitude towards China
tekknik 5y ago
So why do we do this already? The longer we way, the more money and influence they get. I don’t buy Chinese goods anymore. If I can’t confirm it didn’t come from China, I don’t buy. If we had govs onboard, and another supplier of chips, this would be easier than you think.