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How do you sanction China when a good chunk of western industries rely on Chinese factories? Without a collapse of western economies? Maybe the people who outso

How do you sanction China when a good chunk of western industries rely on Chinese factories? Without a collapse of western economies? Maybe the people who outsourced all our manufacturing and know how to China should have thought about all that... We're still in the middle of a chip crisis and haven't still figured out that relying on the region constitutes a threat to our way of life. Are we bringing back all these plants to the west? We aren't...

mountainb 5y ago
Yes, this is the problem with sanctions and blockading without actually going to war. The chip crisis will pale compared to the steel etc. crisis in magnitude and importance. A severe reduction in size of the global economy is not necessarily a "collapse," it's just that -- a severe reduction under either direct or indirect war conditions.
- throw_m239339 5y ago
  > A severe reduction in size of the global economy is not necessarily a "collapse," it's just that -- a severe reduction under either direct or indirect war conditions. We have crazy levels of inflation right now among other economic problems and the FED or the EU central bank are running out of instruments to "tamper with". Anything at that point could trigger violent unrests across the west. Whatever the consequences of "sanctions" are, they won't be happening in a vacuum.
  - cudgy 5y ago
    The Fed’s tampering is the main reason for the inflation and the corner that they have painted the US economy into. Raise rates to proper levels to fight the inflation they created and risk recession; allow inflation and risk eventual revolt. Which choice will they make? Should they alone have the power to make these decisions is the true question.
    - mountainb 5y ago
      If there isn't peace in Ukraine soon and/or if Taiwan is invaded, it's WWIII and a rate hike won't matter and frankly the depreciation would be so rapid that it would be quickly irrelevant going forward. There would be rationing and a centrally planned economy, like in the previous world wars. Hopefully there are speedy and peaceful resolutions to this so that the worst of our problems is inflation. The government's debt problems are mostly "to itself" -- the commitments to give free drugs and unlimited surgery for old people. Under war conditions obviously those commitments will be defaulted on. But then there comes a much larger and worse commitment to enormous war expenditures, and a far smaller private economy. A couple weeks ago it'd be nuts to say all this stuff but obviously things have changed now.
      - cudgy 5y ago
        Unrest in Ukraine alone is not likely to cause a new world war. There has been a civil war mainly in eastern Ukraine for many years already. Ukraine has historically been an unstable area mainly due to its unfortunate position between the major powers Germany and Russia. Ukraine government is better served to remain neutral and avoid provoking the angry bears that exist on each side of the country in my humble opinion. Not sure what you mean by depreciation during war. Some things will depreciate like fluffy tech stocks, luxury goods makers, and real estate, but other things like certain commodities and possibly food will increase in value.
kolanos 5y ago
Inversely, China is highly reliant on the U.S. for agriculture, Brazil and Australia for meat, etc. China has 1/5th the arable land that the U.S. does, with five times the population. You can't eat silicon chips.
- sudosysgen 5y ago
  China is nutritionally only reliant on the rest of the world for meat. If they reduce meat consumption, they can provide nutrition for all of their citizens with their arable land alone.
  - kolanos 5y ago
    China produces cheap manufactured goods. But the U.S. is the world's largest producer of cheap agricultural goods. In fact, China's largest sources of meat source much of their feed from the U.S. The U.S. also pretty much only produces soy for export to China, as does Brazil. My point is that people thing the global economy would collapse if China stopped exporting manufactured goods, but China would starve without the rest of the world feeding their people. China may be able to feed its people with its arable land, but the reality is that it would be only at a sustenance level. This is why China is investing so heavily in African agriculture.
    - projektfu 5y ago
      A little under half of soybean production is exported from the US. The rest is used here for oil products, protein products and animal feed. Apparently, 90% of our cooking oil comes from soybean (usually sold as vegetable oil). https://www.bizvibe.com/blog/agriculture/us-soybean https://www.bizvibe.com/blog/agriculture/us-soybean

mountainb 5y ago

Yes, this is the problem with sanctions and blockading without actually going to war. The chip crisis will pale compared to the steel etc. crisis in magnitude and importance. A severe reduction in size of the global economy is not necessarily a "collapse," it's just that -- a severe reduction under either direct or indirect war conditions.

throw_m239339 5y ago
> A severe reduction in size of the global economy is not necessarily a "collapse," it's just that -- a severe reduction under either direct or indirect war conditions. We have crazy levels of inflation right now among other economic problems and the FED or the EU central bank are running out of instruments to "tamper with". Anything at that point could trigger violent unrests across the west. Whatever the consequences of "sanctions" are, they won't be happening in a vacuum.
- cudgy 5y ago
  The Fed’s tampering is the main reason for the inflation and the corner that they have painted the US economy into. Raise rates to proper levels to fight the inflation they created and risk recession; allow inflation and risk eventual revolt. Which choice will they make? Should they alone have the power to make these decisions is the true question.
  - mountainb 5y ago
    If there isn't peace in Ukraine soon and/or if Taiwan is invaded, it's WWIII and a rate hike won't matter and frankly the depreciation would be so rapid that it would be quickly irrelevant going forward. There would be rationing and a centrally planned economy, like in the previous world wars. Hopefully there are speedy and peaceful resolutions to this so that the worst of our problems is inflation. The government's debt problems are mostly "to itself" -- the commitments to give free drugs and unlimited surgery for old people. Under war conditions obviously those commitments will be defaulted on. But then there comes a much larger and worse commitment to enormous war expenditures, and a far smaller private economy. A couple weeks ago it'd be nuts to say all this stuff but obviously things have changed now.
    - cudgy 5y ago
      Unrest in Ukraine alone is not likely to cause a new world war. There has been a civil war mainly in eastern Ukraine for many years already. Ukraine has historically been an unstable area mainly due to its unfortunate position between the major powers Germany and Russia. Ukraine government is better served to remain neutral and avoid provoking the angry bears that exist on each side of the country in my humble opinion. Not sure what you mean by depreciation during war. Some things will depreciate like fluffy tech stocks, luxury goods makers, and real estate, but other things like certain commodities and possibly food will increase in value.

kolanos 5y ago

Inversely, China is highly reliant on the U.S. for agriculture, Brazil and Australia for meat, etc. China has 1/5th the arable land that the U.S. does, with five times the population. You can't eat silicon chips.

sudosysgen 5y ago
China is nutritionally only reliant on the rest of the world for meat. If they reduce meat consumption, they can provide nutrition for all of their citizens with their arable land alone.
- kolanos 5y ago
  China produces cheap manufactured goods. But the U.S. is the world's largest producer of cheap agricultural goods. In fact, China's largest sources of meat source much of their feed from the U.S. The U.S. also pretty much only produces soy for export to China, as does Brazil. My point is that people thing the global economy would collapse if China stopped exporting manufactured goods, but China would starve without the rest of the world feeding their people. China may be able to feed its people with its arable land, but the reality is that it would be only at a sustenance level. This is why China is investing so heavily in African agriculture.
  - projektfu 5y ago
    A little under half of soybean production is exported from the US. The rest is used here for oil products, protein products and animal feed. Apparently, 90% of our cooking oil comes from soybean (usually sold as vegetable oil). https://www.bizvibe.com/blog/agriculture/us-soybean https://www.bizvibe.com/blog/agriculture/us-soybean