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That's all I can think of... I just don't see an outcome where Ukraine receives so much support from the West that it will manage to beat Russia and make it go

by brabel 5y ago

That's all I can think of... I just don't see an outcome where Ukraine receives so much support from the West that it will manage to beat Russia and make it go home without accomplishing any of its goals.... people seem to think that's a possible outcome. I wonder why when Kiev seems to already be surrounded and the USA government (who was right about warning about an imminent invasion!) has already said (correct me if I am wrong) that Kiev is likely to fall within days. Short of actual military action from the West, which is extremely unlikely as that would give grounds to retaliation by Russia, escalating the war outside Ukrainian borders, Russia seems only days away from removing the Ukrainian government... The rational thing to do right now is to start planning for the aftermath: how to get Russia out of Ukraine as soon as possible once they've taken control of the country. IMO there's only one way: to dialogue with Putin and finally accept some kind of terms for their removal from Ukraine. This is not what anyone wanted, but now that we've let Putin get to Kiev, what exactly are the options? Anyone who thinks sending money and weapons to Ukraine will help solve the problem (including, to my horror, the UK government) seems to completely ignore the reality of the situation and is hoping for a delusional outcome, and worse, opening the possibility for things to go wrong and foreign soldiers being killed while trying to reach Ukrainian troops - which may without a doubt trigger a counter-attack by NATO and total escalation of the conflict (which should be priority number one to avoid right now!).

glogla 5y ago
I'm sure you'd also tell someone being raped to not defend themselves so it's over faster? Jesus Christ, how do you people get so callous? What is wrong with you? who hurt you? What made you give up empathy and humanity? I'll never understand you people.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  Agreed, this is beyond disgusting.
  - tonyedgecombe 5y ago
    Do you really think Ukraine has a reasonable chance of resisting this invasion? It doesn't look like it to me. So what are you offering other than prolonging the agony?
    - drran 5y ago
      Ukraine resists for 8 years straight. How many years you need to accept that Ukraine is stronger than RF?
    - jacquesm 5y ago
      Ah the 'lets roll over for the enemy' group. Yes, we had those here in NL as well when WWII broke out. Let's just say that when the invaders eventually left - as they always do - that group didn't fare particularly well. It's called cowardice, if coupled with actions that benefit the enemy it's called collaboration and is usually dealt with for what it is: treason. I have no dog in this particular race other than that I know both a number of Russians and a number of Ukrainians so consider my views 'balanced' for what that is worth: down with Putin, and I hope that the Russian soldiers know that they may win the initial push but the price will be substantial and eventually they will lose. The weird thing is that if anything the result of this is that NATO will expand, precisely to ward of this sort of idiocy. As for agony: some prefer to fight rather than to suffer under an invader, which is a special kind of agony, which tends to last a lot longer and which will endanger not just you but also your family, your children and so on. Russia has a long history of invading other countries and it invariably spells utter misery for the occupied people.
      - mschuster91 5y ago
        > The weird thing is that if anything the result of this is that NATO will expand, precisely to ward of this sort of idiocy. And many seem to have forgotten under Putin's propaganda of "the NATO provocations" that the free and democratic societies of the former Soviet Union / Eastern Bloc chose to join NATO after Russia's military actions, particularly after the events of 1991-1996 (Transnistria conflict, Abchasian separatist conflict, "intervention" in Chechnya). It is the fault of Russian politics that NATO is so close to its borders!
- brabel 5y ago
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    > If the person being raped knows their attacker will kill them if they defend themselves, yes, they should stay quiet. But nobody knows that ahead of time. Your comment is absolutely revolting.
    - brabel 5y ago
      IF I tell you I will kill you if you move, and I have a knife to your throat, I think you should have a pretty clear and well formed belief that I probably mean it. Telling victims of crime to react as you seem to be proposing is completely irresponsible. I come from a country with high crime and we know very, very well that doing that only causes more deaths - it's public policy to tell people this as many people, like you, believe they can be brave and fight back. There's no heroes. Life is not a movie. To survive in this world, we all need to take a hit every now and then: as long as we can stand up again later, it is often the only reasonable course of action. I am also revolted, disgusted by your suggestions that people should put their lives on the line even when they have clear indications that it may be the last thing they do. Losing your life is NEVER worth it. Please stop propagating the ideology of being a martyr or a hero as if that was a good thing. It's not, it costs real lives in the real world.
cloverich 5y ago
Consider both the US and Russia eventually left Afghanistan.
- tonyedgecombe 5y ago
  Look at the cost though. Afghanistan is the poorest country in the world, people are actually starving there now, women aren't allowed to work, people are being murdered for their political beliefs. Just so they could give their invaders a bloody nose.
  - cloverich 5y ago
    I think there is nuance there but it may derail the intent of my comment: It is not a foregone conclusion that an invasion with intent of regime change and control is actually a viable strategy. The point of the Afghanistan inclusion is that the relative miltary strengths were even more lopsided yet it was not enough for Russia nor the US to maintain control. Insurgencies are devastating and the more legitimate they are, the more likely they are to maintain support.
    - deleted 5y ago
      [deleted]
shimonabi 5y ago
My country was in a similar position 30 years ago. A laughable army compared to the 5th largest army on paper in Europe that attacked us. The USA didn't want to get involved. Today we are richer than Portugal.
coffeefirst 5y ago
Not at all. 1. Appeasement is not an option. It just encourages them to do it again. 2. It is up to the Ukrainians if they want to fight to the bitter end. We can't make them, we can't stop them, but we can have their backs. 3. The purpose of resisting an illegal occupation is to drive up the cost of staying as high as possible. This works, even without economic sanctions. Just ask Vietnam or Afghanistan. 4. In a proxy war, countries officially "ignore" inconvenient facts because acknowledging them will cause a more complicated conflict. This happened all over the Cold War, but as recently as Afghanistan the US had to turn a blind eye to Pakistan's behavior. 5. Nothing is predetermined or strictly predictable. History is chaos. The only thing we know for sure right now is this will be hell for the Ukrainians.
- tonyedgecombe 5y ago
  My argument is if all you do is extend the inevitable by a few days or weeks then what have you gained? Just more misery with the same outcome.

by brabel 5y ago

glogla 5y ago

I'm sure you'd also tell someone being raped to not defend themselves so it's over faster? Jesus Christ, how do you people get so callous? What is wrong with you? who hurt you? What made you give up empathy and humanity? I'll never understand you people.

jacquesm 5y ago
Agreed, this is beyond disgusting.
- tonyedgecombe 5y ago
  Do you really think Ukraine has a reasonable chance of resisting this invasion? It doesn't look like it to me. So what are you offering other than prolonging the agony?
  - drran 5y ago
    Ukraine resists for 8 years straight. How many years you need to accept that Ukraine is stronger than RF?
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    Ah the 'lets roll over for the enemy' group. Yes, we had those here in NL as well when WWII broke out. Let's just say that when the invaders eventually left - as they always do - that group didn't fare particularly well. It's called cowardice, if coupled with actions that benefit the enemy it's called collaboration and is usually dealt with for what it is: treason. I have no dog in this particular race other than that I know both a number of Russians and a number of Ukrainians so consider my views 'balanced' for what that is worth: down with Putin, and I hope that the Russian soldiers know that they may win the initial push but the price will be substantial and eventually they will lose. The weird thing is that if anything the result of this is that NATO will expand, precisely to ward of this sort of idiocy. As for agony: some prefer to fight rather than to suffer under an invader, which is a special kind of agony, which tends to last a lot longer and which will endanger not just you but also your family, your children and so on. Russia has a long history of invading other countries and it invariably spells utter misery for the occupied people.
    - mschuster91 5y ago
      > The weird thing is that if anything the result of this is that NATO will expand, precisely to ward of this sort of idiocy. And many seem to have forgotten under Putin's propaganda of "the NATO provocations" that the free and democratic societies of the former Soviet Union / Eastern Bloc chose to join NATO after Russia's military actions, particularly after the events of 1991-1996 (Transnistria conflict, Abchasian separatist conflict, "intervention" in Chechnya). It is the fault of Russian politics that NATO is so close to its borders!
brabel 5y ago
- jacquesm 5y ago
  > If the person being raped knows their attacker will kill them if they defend themselves, yes, they should stay quiet. But nobody knows that ahead of time. Your comment is absolutely revolting.
  - brabel 5y ago
    IF I tell you I will kill you if you move, and I have a knife to your throat, I think you should have a pretty clear and well formed belief that I probably mean it. Telling victims of crime to react as you seem to be proposing is completely irresponsible. I come from a country with high crime and we know very, very well that doing that only causes more deaths - it's public policy to tell people this as many people, like you, believe they can be brave and fight back. There's no heroes. Life is not a movie. To survive in this world, we all need to take a hit every now and then: as long as we can stand up again later, it is often the only reasonable course of action. I am also revolted, disgusted by your suggestions that people should put their lives on the line even when they have clear indications that it may be the last thing they do. Losing your life is NEVER worth it. Please stop propagating the ideology of being a martyr or a hero as if that was a good thing. It's not, it costs real lives in the real world.

cloverich 5y ago

Consider both the US and Russia eventually left Afghanistan.

tonyedgecombe 5y ago
Look at the cost though. Afghanistan is the poorest country in the world, people are actually starving there now, women aren't allowed to work, people are being murdered for their political beliefs. Just so they could give their invaders a bloody nose.
- cloverich 5y ago
  I think there is nuance there but it may derail the intent of my comment: It is not a foregone conclusion that an invasion with intent of regime change and control is actually a viable strategy. The point of the Afghanistan inclusion is that the relative miltary strengths were even more lopsided yet it was not enough for Russia nor the US to maintain control. Insurgencies are devastating and the more legitimate they are, the more likely they are to maintain support.
  - deleted 5y ago
    [deleted]

shimonabi 5y ago

My country was in a similar position 30 years ago. A laughable army compared to the 5th largest army on paper in Europe that attacked us. The USA didn't want to get involved. Today we are richer than Portugal.

coffeefirst 5y ago

Not at all. 1. Appeasement is not an option. It just encourages them to do it again. 2. It is up to the Ukrainians if they want to fight to the bitter end. We can't make them, we can't stop them, but we can have their backs. 3. The purpose of resisting an illegal occupation is to drive up the cost of staying as high as possible. This works, even without economic sanctions. Just ask Vietnam or Afghanistan. 4. In a proxy war, countries officially "ignore" inconvenient facts because acknowledging them will cause a more complicated conflict. This happened all over the Cold War, but as recently as Afghanistan the US had to turn a blind eye to Pakistan's behavior. 5. Nothing is predetermined or strictly predictable. History is chaos. The only thing we know for sure right now is this will be hell for the Ukrainians.

tonyedgecombe 5y ago
My argument is if all you do is extend the inevitable by a few days or weeks then what have you gained? Just more misery with the same outcome.