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This might be an unpopular opinion obviously being part of the l'occident world but NATO/US alignment of conflicting regional interests of EU members dependant

This might be an unpopular opinion obviously being part of the l'occident world but NATO/US alignment of conflicting regional interests of EU members dependant on Russia's energy goods might be to blame. Eastern portion of Ukraine is heavily in favor of joining Russia as most speak Russian while he central and western parts want to join the EU but this is largely a one sided love affair. EU has repeatedly stalled and delayed Ukraine's membership seeing that it would be the second poorest member state after Greece, and thus would be against the interest of Germany, who stand to gain a lot by using Russia's gas pipeline. Enter Maidan revolution, while not outright instigated by the US, one does raise questions about the role of Facebook in previous revolutions namely the Arab Spring movement, Syrian rebellion, etc, and how quickly they were able to spread a the Maidan propaganda that EU/NATO membership was imminent when it couldn't be further from the truth. The 2014 invasion was relatively well restrained campaign at reminding who the master of Ukraine is which was promptly ignored by the following administrations. Rather than choose peace with Russia by remaining neutral, they chose to go down the impossibly difficult act of trying to gain NATO membership with a border dispute in Donetsk/Lukansk region. It might very well be said that Putin planned to take Ukraine anyways and 2014 was a test run and a good platform to encircle and hook into Moldova, another potential hotspot. The fact remains that leaving the Ukraine flatlands to NATO troops would open up Moscow to an indefensible flank, the upkeep cost of maintaining a wide frontline the size of Ukraine-Russia border would bankrupt Russia. Simply put the cost of inaction was calculated to be far greater than the risk of action. Imagine if you will, Mexico wanted to join China's security umbrella and it was receiving Chinese troops, tanks, hardware right across the US-Mexico border. Next Canada joins the party. How quickly do you think the US would put down such strategic positioning?

hef19898 5y ago
Actually a good write down, I think it's not to far from the mark as far as Putin's perspective is concerned. Since more than one thing can be, and usually is, true at the same time, I think one part is exactly as you described. The other is that Putin simply really wants Ukraine back in the fold, among other countries that used to be part if the USSR. Again, all of that is just a, potential, explanation. It is not, by any means, an excuse or justification.
- deutschewelle 5y ago
  Here's where I differ and as much as I detest Russia's actions and Putins kleptocracy, he is a chess player, highly rational and calculating. The idea that Putin wants to reclaim the former USSR border is ludicrous to me because it would mean raiding his own coffers. He comes across as an opportunistic and a highly adventurous individual focused on wealth building. I don't know if you read Alex Litvenenko's book but Putin's roots, his associates and friends, wealth was his end goal from the start. Why someone like him would be considered to be capable of empire building (when he could barely contain Chechnya) is beyond me. Putin is a thug and he cares more about his wealth than the interest of his own country, and the #1 threat to him isn't sanctions but Hague trials. There is overwhelming evidence that Putin was responsible for the apartment bombings (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings), and if the truth came out, it wouldn't be his own people that take him down alone but the combined threat of NATO military action and an emboldened local populace. Again I am not a psychologist but someone this selfish and material focused (his stupid Versailles 2.0 project that went to crap) is simply NOT interested in restoring USSR glory or anything like that but rather like any good capitalist, obsessed with maintaining his wealth.
  - hef19898 5y ago
    Fair points.
jacquesm 5y ago
> The 2014 invasion was relatively well restrained campaign at reminding who the master of Ukraine is which was promptly ignored by the following administrations. WTF? Ukraine is a sovereign nation. > Eastern portion of Ukraine is heavily in favor of joining Russia This is factually incorrect, even today, and it was always so. http://www.ifes.org/sites/default/files/2014_ukraine_survey_key_findings.pdf http://www.ifes.org/sites/default/files/2014_ukraine_survey_... There is plenty of disinformation around this subject but the whole idea that one day the Donbas region decided that it wanted to join Russia and that those pesky Ukrainians in the Western part of the country wouldn't let them is bogus.
- deutschewelle 5y ago
  Demographically, Russian speakers in this part were reliant on Ukraine for much of its access to natural resources and capital, there is a sense of being poor and looked down upon by the Ukranians in the West and its exactly this class divide that fuels ethno-nationalism. To simply whip out a PDF and scream disinformation seem awfully short sighted way to influence people's opinions especially because it is condescending to the average HN user who has access to a plethora of fact finding search engines and social media to judge what the truth is. It's up to the readers to gather information themselves and find the truths, not have it shoved down their throat in some emotional mania state of us vs them primal instincts. Ukraine was never part of the West and it can never be if you understand the military strategic value of its flatlands.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    > Demographically, Russian speakers in this part were reliant on Ukraine for much of its access to natural resources and capital, there is a sense of being poor and looked down upon by the Ukranians in the West and its exactly this class divide that fuels ethno-nationalism. You mean: like Latvia. Where it works just fine. > To simply whip out a PDF and scream disinformation seem awfully short sighted way to influence people's opinions especially because it is condescending to the average HN user who has access to a plethora of fact finding search engines and social media to judge what the truth is. Yes, the truth is: the Eastern part of Ukraine was the poorest, mostly because of the flow of capital going West-to-East, like in most countries that border even poorer countries to their East and richer countries to their West. > It's up to the readers to gather information themselves and find the truths, not have it shoved down their throat in some emotional mania state of us vs them primal instincts. Ah, the 'do your own research' bit. Yes, I remember that from some other context. > Ukraine was never part of the West and it can never be if you understand the military strategic value of its flatlands. The same was said of Poland and of the Baltics. But it's clear what your angle is.
leobg 5y ago
That’s very close to the point made by this blog article, which was posted here yesterday: https://lt3000.blogspot.com/2022/01/us-vs-russia-geopolitics-real-story.html https://lt3000.blogspot.com/2022/01/us-vs-russia-geopolitics...
- juletide 5y ago
  "In recent months, Russia has once again been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons, with the US and Western media loudly proclaiming (since November) that Russia is planning an imminent invasion of the Ukraine, though Russia has repeatedly denied that fact and it's not exactly clear what Russia is waiting for, or what advantage it could expect to derive from lying about its intentions at this point (the whole Western world expects an invasion and the US has pulled embassy staff from Kiev)." Given that it's now obvious that Russia in fact has been planning an invasion of the Ukraine, for months, which furthermore undermines the author's later claim that there was some peaceful concession that Putin would've accepted... I'm not sure why I should take this author's argument seriously. They seem naive and under informed.
  - leobg 5y ago
    Well, here’s a talk at Yale that makes the same points. I don’t know if everything in there is factually correct. But it does very clearly why Putin is acting the way he is. https://youtu.be/8X7Ng75e5gQ https://youtu.be/8X7Ng75e5gQ
raverbashing 5y ago
This sounds like justifying aggression with extra steps. Wrapping it in fine words while just saying "Russia is right" won't fly Funny how everybody is playing the "China in Mexico" strawman. Typical of propaganda talking points. But please tell me again how bombing Kyiv has anything to do with "liberating" the eastern regions
- deutschewelle 5y ago
  You can't have your cake and eat it too. The same security concerns that America would face under similar circumstances as described, any rational individual would be cognizant that such logical deduction would be intensely rejected by an emotionally charged why-would-mainstream-media-lie-to-the-ppl types that largely act as amplifiers of pre-packaged ideological responses aimed at producing more fear and miscalculations aka war mongering. > But please tell me again how bombing Kyiv has anything to do with "liberating" the eastern regions This is a gross extrapolation based on your own conjectures at this point. I did not justify the bombing of Kyiv, more simply pointing out that your own emotional response towards Russia is creating blindspots in your ability to rationally figure out why a conflict is happening now suddenly.
  - raverbashing 5y ago
    > The same security concerns that America would face under similar circumstances as described The fact that Russia cannot "make friends" without stepping on their throat explain how they think Mexico could entertain something as having a Chinese base on it and their corresponding reaction. It's how bullies justify their behaviour. > This is a gross extrapolation It is what is happening right now. In the same way the discourse last week was "Russia would not invade" and "they are mere military exercises in Belarus"
    - env123 5y ago
      Eeh, you could say the same about the US. Please just have an objective view of these, and not taking sides when it doesn't really concern your individual self
ajuc 5y ago
You are repeating Russian propaganda, several points of which were repeatedly refuted (for example the polls about eastern Ukraine wanting to join Russia).
- deutschewelle 5y ago
  And you are simply refusing to see reality as it is because you have biases going in, I'm simply trying to see why this is happening and who really started it but if you keep trying to reduce this to an us-vs-them juvenility then knock yourself out. I have no interest in this region other than figuring out what got us here. Also I have no intention of backing a country like Russia but I also don't feel any sort of ideological camaraderie just because I am from the West. This coldness is largely how I deal with human attrocities, I take the emotion out of it and reduce biases to accurately gauge reality. Can't do that when you let somebody tell you what is propaganda or an entire country are the baddies and we are the goodies....I mean that was fun in high school but surely you realize the duality and hypocritical nature of our modern reality....or at least might have been too much to ask during the war itself. Perhaps when Ukraine becomes part of Russia which it inevitably will be through a forced federalization, will it strike just how badly the Ukranian leadership screwed up in misjudging Ukraine's geopolitical importance—if not obvious from the West's lack of military reaction. I'm sorry but Ukraine does not produce any derivative goods like Taiwan's semiconductor industry which is of critical strategic importance to the West and one which US signaled military action against China in the event Xi tries to take it.
  - krisoft 5y ago
    > I'm simply trying to see why this is happening and who really started it Great. Do you see the missiles sent in from the territory of Russia to blow stuff up in Ukrain? Or the Russian tanks moving about in Ukraine? Or the Russian attack helicopters delivering troops to Ukraine? It is happening because someone controlling the Russian military ordered it to happen. If you have to twist your mind into pretzels to explain that this all happened because Russia felt so threatened that they had no other choice then have at it. There is no rational basis for that. > entire country are the baddies and we are the goodies That is ridiculous and nobody said anything like that in the whole thread.
ciphol 5y ago
> The 2014 invasion was relatively well restrained campaign at reminding who the master of Ukraine is Nice attempt at justifying imperialism.
mopsi 5y ago
> Imagine if you will, Mexico wanted to join China's security umbrella and it was receiving Chinese troops, tanks, hardware right across the US-Mexico border. Next Canada joins the party. Imagine how much raping, murdering and pillaging the US would have to do beforehand to force Canada seek isolation from the US at all cost. Whataboutists always seem to forget Russia's past actions. EE countries seeking security guarantees is not something that happened in vacuum.

hef19898 5y ago

Actually a good write down, I think it's not to far from the mark as far as Putin's perspective is concerned. Since more than one thing can be, and usually is, true at the same time, I think one part is exactly as you described. The other is that Putin simply really wants Ukraine back in the fold, among other countries that used to be part if the USSR. Again, all of that is just a, potential, explanation. It is not, by any means, an excuse or justification.

deutschewelle 5y ago
Here's where I differ and as much as I detest Russia's actions and Putins kleptocracy, he is a chess player, highly rational and calculating. The idea that Putin wants to reclaim the former USSR border is ludicrous to me because it would mean raiding his own coffers. He comes across as an opportunistic and a highly adventurous individual focused on wealth building. I don't know if you read Alex Litvenenko's book but Putin's roots, his associates and friends, wealth was his end goal from the start. Why someone like him would be considered to be capable of empire building (when he could barely contain Chechnya) is beyond me. Putin is a thug and he cares more about his wealth than the interest of his own country, and the #1 threat to him isn't sanctions but Hague trials. There is overwhelming evidence that Putin was responsible for the apartment bombings (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_apartment_bombings), and if the truth came out, it wouldn't be his own people that take him down alone but the combined threat of NATO military action and an emboldened local populace. Again I am not a psychologist but someone this selfish and material focused (his stupid Versailles 2.0 project that went to crap) is simply NOT interested in restoring USSR glory or anything like that but rather like any good capitalist, obsessed with maintaining his wealth.
- hef19898 5y ago
  Fair points.

jacquesm 5y ago

> The 2014 invasion was relatively well restrained campaign at reminding who the master of Ukraine is which was promptly ignored by the following administrations. WTF? Ukraine is a sovereign nation. > Eastern portion of Ukraine is heavily in favor of joining Russia This is factually incorrect, even today, and it was always so. http://www.ifes.org/sites/default/files/2014_ukraine_survey_key_findings.pdf http://www.ifes.org/sites/default/files/2014_ukraine_survey_... There is plenty of disinformation around this subject but the whole idea that one day the Donbas region decided that it wanted to join Russia and that those pesky Ukrainians in the Western part of the country wouldn't let them is bogus.

deutschewelle 5y ago
Demographically, Russian speakers in this part were reliant on Ukraine for much of its access to natural resources and capital, there is a sense of being poor and looked down upon by the Ukranians in the West and its exactly this class divide that fuels ethno-nationalism. To simply whip out a PDF and scream disinformation seem awfully short sighted way to influence people's opinions especially because it is condescending to the average HN user who has access to a plethora of fact finding search engines and social media to judge what the truth is. It's up to the readers to gather information themselves and find the truths, not have it shoved down their throat in some emotional mania state of us vs them primal instincts. Ukraine was never part of the West and it can never be if you understand the military strategic value of its flatlands.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  > Demographically, Russian speakers in this part were reliant on Ukraine for much of its access to natural resources and capital, there is a sense of being poor and looked down upon by the Ukranians in the West and its exactly this class divide that fuels ethno-nationalism. You mean: like Latvia. Where it works just fine. > To simply whip out a PDF and scream disinformation seem awfully short sighted way to influence people's opinions especially because it is condescending to the average HN user who has access to a plethora of fact finding search engines and social media to judge what the truth is. Yes, the truth is: the Eastern part of Ukraine was the poorest, mostly because of the flow of capital going West-to-East, like in most countries that border even poorer countries to their East and richer countries to their West. > It's up to the readers to gather information themselves and find the truths, not have it shoved down their throat in some emotional mania state of us vs them primal instincts. Ah, the 'do your own research' bit. Yes, I remember that from some other context. > Ukraine was never part of the West and it can never be if you understand the military strategic value of its flatlands. The same was said of Poland and of the Baltics. But it's clear what your angle is.

leobg 5y ago

That’s very close to the point made by this blog article, which was posted here yesterday: https://lt3000.blogspot.com/2022/01/us-vs-russia-geopolitics-real-story.html https://lt3000.blogspot.com/2022/01/us-vs-russia-geopolitics...

juletide 5y ago
"In recent months, Russia has once again been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons, with the US and Western media loudly proclaiming (since November) that Russia is planning an imminent invasion of the Ukraine, though Russia has repeatedly denied that fact and it's not exactly clear what Russia is waiting for, or what advantage it could expect to derive from lying about its intentions at this point (the whole Western world expects an invasion and the US has pulled embassy staff from Kiev)." Given that it's now obvious that Russia in fact has been planning an invasion of the Ukraine, for months, which furthermore undermines the author's later claim that there was some peaceful concession that Putin would've accepted... I'm not sure why I should take this author's argument seriously. They seem naive and under informed.
- leobg 5y ago
  Well, here’s a talk at Yale that makes the same points. I don’t know if everything in there is factually correct. But it does very clearly why Putin is acting the way he is. https://youtu.be/8X7Ng75e5gQ https://youtu.be/8X7Ng75e5gQ

raverbashing 5y ago

This sounds like justifying aggression with extra steps. Wrapping it in fine words while just saying "Russia is right" won't fly Funny how everybody is playing the "China in Mexico" strawman. Typical of propaganda talking points. But please tell me again how bombing Kyiv has anything to do with "liberating" the eastern regions

deutschewelle 5y ago
You can't have your cake and eat it too. The same security concerns that America would face under similar circumstances as described, any rational individual would be cognizant that such logical deduction would be intensely rejected by an emotionally charged why-would-mainstream-media-lie-to-the-ppl types that largely act as amplifiers of pre-packaged ideological responses aimed at producing more fear and miscalculations aka war mongering. > But please tell me again how bombing Kyiv has anything to do with "liberating" the eastern regions This is a gross extrapolation based on your own conjectures at this point. I did not justify the bombing of Kyiv, more simply pointing out that your own emotional response towards Russia is creating blindspots in your ability to rationally figure out why a conflict is happening now suddenly.
- raverbashing 5y ago
  > The same security concerns that America would face under similar circumstances as described The fact that Russia cannot "make friends" without stepping on their throat explain how they think Mexico could entertain something as having a Chinese base on it and their corresponding reaction. It's how bullies justify their behaviour. > This is a gross extrapolation It is what is happening right now. In the same way the discourse last week was "Russia would not invade" and "they are mere military exercises in Belarus"
  - env123 5y ago
    Eeh, you could say the same about the US. Please just have an objective view of these, and not taking sides when it doesn't really concern your individual self

ajuc 5y ago

You are repeating Russian propaganda, several points of which were repeatedly refuted (for example the polls about eastern Ukraine wanting to join Russia).

deutschewelle 5y ago
And you are simply refusing to see reality as it is because you have biases going in, I'm simply trying to see why this is happening and who really started it but if you keep trying to reduce this to an us-vs-them juvenility then knock yourself out. I have no interest in this region other than figuring out what got us here. Also I have no intention of backing a country like Russia but I also don't feel any sort of ideological camaraderie just because I am from the West. This coldness is largely how I deal with human attrocities, I take the emotion out of it and reduce biases to accurately gauge reality. Can't do that when you let somebody tell you what is propaganda or an entire country are the baddies and we are the goodies....I mean that was fun in high school but surely you realize the duality and hypocritical nature of our modern reality....or at least might have been too much to ask during the war itself. Perhaps when Ukraine becomes part of Russia which it inevitably will be through a forced federalization, will it strike just how badly the Ukranian leadership screwed up in misjudging Ukraine's geopolitical importance—if not obvious from the West's lack of military reaction. I'm sorry but Ukraine does not produce any derivative goods like Taiwan's semiconductor industry which is of critical strategic importance to the West and one which US signaled military action against China in the event Xi tries to take it.
- krisoft 5y ago
  > I'm simply trying to see why this is happening and who really started it Great. Do you see the missiles sent in from the territory of Russia to blow stuff up in Ukrain? Or the Russian tanks moving about in Ukraine? Or the Russian attack helicopters delivering troops to Ukraine? It is happening because someone controlling the Russian military ordered it to happen. If you have to twist your mind into pretzels to explain that this all happened because Russia felt so threatened that they had no other choice then have at it. There is no rational basis for that. > entire country are the baddies and we are the goodies That is ridiculous and nobody said anything like that in the whole thread.

ciphol 5y ago

> The 2014 invasion was relatively well restrained campaign at reminding who the master of Ukraine is Nice attempt at justifying imperialism.

mopsi 5y ago

> Imagine if you will, Mexico wanted to join China's security umbrella and it was receiving Chinese troops, tanks, hardware right across the US-Mexico border. Next Canada joins the party. Imagine how much raping, murdering and pillaging the US would have to do beforehand to force Canada seek isolation from the US at all cost. Whataboutists always seem to forget Russia's past actions. EE countries seeking security guarantees is not something that happened in vacuum.