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US folks: Call your congressional representatives and demand they back harsh sanctions against Russian oil/gas immediately. Perhaps even a full embargo until a

US folks: Call your congressional representatives and demand they back harsh sanctions against Russian oil/gas immediately. Perhaps even a full embargo until aggression is stopped. That is the _only_ leverage the US has against Russia, and as of yet the US has steadfastly refused to do anything that would interrupt the flow or price of oil to itself.

sofixa 5y ago
The problem with that is that Europe needs Russian gas to flow, and Putin knows that.
- jonathanstrange 5y ago
  Not really. Europe would experience a temporary shortage and soaring prices but that's it. The alternative is to let dictator Putin go unpunished, which means he will in the future likely attack another country. There is no doubt about it. Without a strong deterrent and corresponding internal opposition, dictator Putin would seize the first opportunity as long as (in his mind) he'd be reasonably certain that other European states wouldn't use nuclear weapons anyway. The older he gets, the more likely he is to make such errors of judgment. The new security imbalance due to an emboldened Russia would drastically increase the likelihood of a nuclear war in the future. Avoiding WW3 should have higher priority than short-term gas imports.
  - bb123 5y ago
    I don’t think you understand how important the gas is in Europe in winter. People will quite literally freeze to death in their homes without it.
    - gocartStatue 5y ago
      Not at that time of the year, we won't. There are reserves still. If we don't stop this madness now, we may freeze in 1-5 years running away from war moving through Latvia, Estonia, Poland etc. But Germany thinks it will save its economy still buying gas from RUS, so there's that...
    - jonathanstrange 5y ago
      What a bullshit, at most it would be inconvenient and people have to spend a lot of money on electric radiators for a month or so.
      - austinjp 5y ago
        A lot of people in Europe and the UK are already struggling to pay bills. It's been described as "eat or heat", since some can't afford to do both. Rising cost of living, reduced job security, and lower wages are all killing tens-of-thousands of people already. https://www.endfuelpoverty.org.uk/about-fuel-poverty/ https://www.endfuelpoverty.org.uk/about-fuel-poverty/
        jonathanstrange 5y ago
        You're treating an aggressive war in Europe like a minor calamity. It is an obvious responsibility of the state to help people pay for substitute heating and ease the negative impact of conflicts like that. In the worst case, even the military could step in. Helping citizens in times of conflict is one of the primary functions of governments and state institutions. It's much better to face these kind of negative consequences now than to embolden a dictator and later wonder why you sit in a bunker while Latvia or Poland is overrun. Just because this is not an armed conflict (yet) does not mean it should be treated lightly.
        austinjp 5y ago
        > You're treating an aggressive war in Europe like a minor calamity I have absolutely no idea why you say this, and I can assure you that I am not doing this. Fuel poverty in Europe and the UK are among many reasons why those nations should take what's happening in the Ukraine very seriously. My concern is that the ruling parties don't take these things seriously enough. To reassure you: I completely agree that states should look after their citizens who cannot eat or keep themselves warm. Unfortunately, this demonstrably does not happen. The situation in Ukraine is dreadful, and I certainly do not think it is minor. Quite the opposite.
    - saiya-jin 5y ago
      Electric heating, oil heating and so on. Not sure if the grid would cope with such a load, but there are always options. Another option is just to give up with your kind of argument, and pay up Russia. That's looking increasingly like shooting our own foot in long term. The idea he will stop and be happy just with Ukraine is dangerously naive and ignore his own steps and statements. If this won't be a wake up call in Europe then nothing will. Ramp up military budgets (I hate the idea, but that's how you deter bullies and we have one greedy fucker right now next door), and prepare infrastructure for withdrawal of anything russian. Long term that's good for Europe and world too.
- ant6n 5y ago
  …for a couple more weeks of winter.
  - majewsky 5y ago
    And also next winter. We absolutely have the means to get rid of our dependence on Russian fossil fuels (and fossil fuels in general). But we won't be able to do it within one year.
    - nickpp 5y ago
      But we may be able to topple Putin in a year if we stopped buying Russian fossil fuels immediately - the Russian economy would crash rather quickly.
- andruby 5y ago
  Europe has some gas reserves. We could "see out winter if Russian imports stop" [0]. I personally don't mind wearing an extra sweater or jacket inside if it stops Europe from paying billions to Gazprom. > While a complete loss of Russian gas imports, currently making up almost half of Germany’s gas needs, “will lead to bottlenecks in some European countries”, supply shortages “would be limited to up to 10% of demand”. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/europe-winter-gas-reserves-russian-imports-german-analysis-ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/europe-winter-...
  - brigandish 5y ago
    You don't mind wearing a sweater but I'm willing to bet you're not elderly, nor poor, nor living in substandard housing. Any of those would make your sacrifice simply one more example of an action that hurts the most vulnerable in society while claiming to be a good thing.
    - andruby 5y ago
      I'm sorry to have triggered you. I didn't mean to sound like that was a sacrifice. Elderly and poor will be hurt the most, that is true. If the source I linked to is correct, it claims it would only impact 10% of demand. While I don't know what that would look like in practice. I sincerely hope (and expect) that it would not lead to anyone, including the vulnerable, freezing to death, or getting seriously ill.
      - brigandish 5y ago
        If you want to talk about people being triggered then I may as well talk about virtue signalling but it won't lead to an interesting discussion. People in privileged positions often talk about making small sacrifices to fulfil some grand end. It always impacts the least privileged the most, whether that be through poverty or something like old age. We've just had 2 years of it with the pandemic, and now we're seeing it with war, and you've extended it to the boycott of a company providing a very necessary resource. > it would only impact 10% of demand What would it do to prices? My advice to you is to try imagining what it's like to run out of money before the end of the month and have to freeze your way to the next, then as an elderly person. The path to hell is paved with good intentions.
jonathanstrange 5y ago
More importantly, Germans, Austrians, and Italians should call their representatives to support excluding Russia from SWIFT because these seem to have been the main governments who blocked the proposal.
blunte 5y ago
This is going to be a tough sell to the significant percentage of US Congresspeople who vocally support a man who currently vocally supports Putin's actions.
FollowingTheDao 5y ago
You know why this is not being done? If Russia and China stop buying oil using the U.S. Dollar guess who gets screwed? If you do not know that this is mostly what this conflict is about, well, hello. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/03/us-sanctions-may-see-russia-ditch-dollar-denominated-oil-contracts-novak-says.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/03/us-sanctions-may-see-russia-...

sofixa 5y ago

The problem with that is that Europe needs Russian gas to flow, and Putin knows that.

jonathanstrange 5y ago
Not really. Europe would experience a temporary shortage and soaring prices but that's it. The alternative is to let dictator Putin go unpunished, which means he will in the future likely attack another country. There is no doubt about it. Without a strong deterrent and corresponding internal opposition, dictator Putin would seize the first opportunity as long as (in his mind) he'd be reasonably certain that other European states wouldn't use nuclear weapons anyway. The older he gets, the more likely he is to make such errors of judgment. The new security imbalance due to an emboldened Russia would drastically increase the likelihood of a nuclear war in the future. Avoiding WW3 should have higher priority than short-term gas imports.
- bb123 5y ago
  I don’t think you understand how important the gas is in Europe in winter. People will quite literally freeze to death in their homes without it.
  - gocartStatue 5y ago
    Not at that time of the year, we won't. There are reserves still. If we don't stop this madness now, we may freeze in 1-5 years running away from war moving through Latvia, Estonia, Poland etc. But Germany thinks it will save its economy still buying gas from RUS, so there's that...
  - jonathanstrange 5y ago
    What a bullshit, at most it would be inconvenient and people have to spend a lot of money on electric radiators for a month or so.
    - austinjp 5y ago
      A lot of people in Europe and the UK are already struggling to pay bills. It's been described as "eat or heat", since some can't afford to do both. Rising cost of living, reduced job security, and lower wages are all killing tens-of-thousands of people already. https://www.endfuelpoverty.org.uk/about-fuel-poverty/ https://www.endfuelpoverty.org.uk/about-fuel-poverty/
      - jonathanstrange 5y ago
        You're treating an aggressive war in Europe like a minor calamity. It is an obvious responsibility of the state to help people pay for substitute heating and ease the negative impact of conflicts like that. In the worst case, even the military could step in. Helping citizens in times of conflict is one of the primary functions of governments and state institutions. It's much better to face these kind of negative consequences now than to embolden a dictator and later wonder why you sit in a bunker while Latvia or Poland is overrun. Just because this is not an armed conflict (yet) does not mean it should be treated lightly.
        austinjp 5y ago
        > You're treating an aggressive war in Europe like a minor calamity I have absolutely no idea why you say this, and I can assure you that I am not doing this. Fuel poverty in Europe and the UK are among many reasons why those nations should take what's happening in the Ukraine very seriously. My concern is that the ruling parties don't take these things seriously enough. To reassure you: I completely agree that states should look after their citizens who cannot eat or keep themselves warm. Unfortunately, this demonstrably does not happen. The situation in Ukraine is dreadful, and I certainly do not think it is minor. Quite the opposite.
  - saiya-jin 5y ago
    Electric heating, oil heating and so on. Not sure if the grid would cope with such a load, but there are always options. Another option is just to give up with your kind of argument, and pay up Russia. That's looking increasingly like shooting our own foot in long term. The idea he will stop and be happy just with Ukraine is dangerously naive and ignore his own steps and statements. If this won't be a wake up call in Europe then nothing will. Ramp up military budgets (I hate the idea, but that's how you deter bullies and we have one greedy fucker right now next door), and prepare infrastructure for withdrawal of anything russian. Long term that's good for Europe and world too.
ant6n 5y ago
…for a couple more weeks of winter.
- majewsky 5y ago
  And also next winter. We absolutely have the means to get rid of our dependence on Russian fossil fuels (and fossil fuels in general). But we won't be able to do it within one year.
  - nickpp 5y ago
    But we may be able to topple Putin in a year if we stopped buying Russian fossil fuels immediately - the Russian economy would crash rather quickly.
andruby 5y ago
Europe has some gas reserves. We could "see out winter if Russian imports stop" [0]. I personally don't mind wearing an extra sweater or jacket inside if it stops Europe from paying billions to Gazprom. > While a complete loss of Russian gas imports, currently making up almost half of Germany’s gas needs, “will lead to bottlenecks in some European countries”, supply shortages “would be limited to up to 10% of demand”. [0] https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/europe-winter-gas-reserves-russian-imports-german-analysis-ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/europe-winter-...
- brigandish 5y ago
  You don't mind wearing a sweater but I'm willing to bet you're not elderly, nor poor, nor living in substandard housing. Any of those would make your sacrifice simply one more example of an action that hurts the most vulnerable in society while claiming to be a good thing.
  - andruby 5y ago
    I'm sorry to have triggered you. I didn't mean to sound like that was a sacrifice. Elderly and poor will be hurt the most, that is true. If the source I linked to is correct, it claims it would only impact 10% of demand. While I don't know what that would look like in practice. I sincerely hope (and expect) that it would not lead to anyone, including the vulnerable, freezing to death, or getting seriously ill.
    - brigandish 5y ago
      If you want to talk about people being triggered then I may as well talk about virtue signalling but it won't lead to an interesting discussion. People in privileged positions often talk about making small sacrifices to fulfil some grand end. It always impacts the least privileged the most, whether that be through poverty or something like old age. We've just had 2 years of it with the pandemic, and now we're seeing it with war, and you've extended it to the boycott of a company providing a very necessary resource. > it would only impact 10% of demand What would it do to prices? My advice to you is to try imagining what it's like to run out of money before the end of the month and have to freeze your way to the next, then as an elderly person. The path to hell is paved with good intentions.

jonathanstrange 5y ago

More importantly, Germans, Austrians, and Italians should call their representatives to support excluding Russia from SWIFT because these seem to have been the main governments who blocked the proposal.

blunte 5y ago

This is going to be a tough sell to the significant percentage of US Congresspeople who vocally support a man who currently vocally supports Putin's actions.

FollowingTheDao 5y ago

You know why this is not being done? If Russia and China stop buying oil using the U.S. Dollar guess who gets screwed? If you do not know that this is mostly what this conflict is about, well, hello. https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/03/us-sanctions-may-see-russia-ditch-dollar-denominated-oil-contracts-novak-says.html https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/03/us-sanctions-may-see-russia-...