14 ms·

Thank You for answer. What I see now, kremlin for sure have not prepared for long term war campaign, they just have not built hospitals for wounded (thanks to

by simne 5y ago

Thank You for answer. What I see now, kremlin for sure have not prepared for long term war campaign, they just have not built hospitals for wounded (thanks to western sat photos, provided by official sources), and this is extremely important, because in real war, 80% wounded die within 24h if have not received medical care in nearest 1-2 hours. And if will be resistance, attacking forces will have very large number of wounded, so they will be forced to stop attack, because have not enough medicine institutions to heal wounded. So I think, kremlin accounted for similar to 2014 behavior of Ukrainian soldiers, I mean, in 2014 many Ukrainian soldiers or even officers just drop weapons and surrendered, to avoid bloodshed, because they think it is not war, they think it is provocation. Now I have some under the hood tools, and with them I see totally different reaction. I know that border guards tried to stop occupants; I know that pilots got very clear instruction "You could fire if you sure see enemy"; I know, in many places, air defense fires on "unknown aircrafts". And it is important, that count of Russian military forces, prepared before occupation, where close to current Ukrainian army. And technical power of armies are similar now, except of aviation - Ukraine have approx few tens military planes and helicopters, but occupants have more than hundred, same thing with tanks. But Ukraine now have Stingers, Javelins, Bayraktars, and some other modern weapons, so powers similar. So, I think, in approximately 30 hours, hot phase of war will end, and will continue similar to "ATO", mean struggle on east, but possible in few additional places. Or if You have good understanding of Israel history, or history of Korea, their hot war phases, usually does not last more than few weeks, some oven few days, and between of those hot phases, where very-very long periods of economy struggle or just information wars. I have before analyzed Japan success, and I think, they have V-shape economy grows on every big earthquake, because they had to rebuild lot of things from scratch, this is very good for market competitiveness. Ukraine before 2014 does not seen so large examples of market falls, because of this Ukrainian business was not ready for real life, and I think, now its time to change selves.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
Thank you for the insight. Godspeed. If you have links to organisations we can support from far away (with money, labour or lobbying), those would be appreciated.
- jtsuken 5y ago
  The central bank accepts donations on behalf of the Ukrainian army: https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-spetsrahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-sp...
  - nopenopenopeno 5y ago
    - oblio 5y ago
      This is crap. 9 Eastern European countries in the former Soviet sphere joined NATO and the EU and are currently going through one of their longest periods of growth and peace in their history. There can be no long term prosperity with Russia.
      - nopenopenopeno 5y ago
        They are being bled dry of everything the’ve got for the Western European elite. The benefits go to the upper classes while the working people suffer.
        mantas 5y ago
        Coming from ex-USSR... Western European elite is much much much better than Russian elite...
        beebeepka 5y ago
        That's true. I know because I am from Bulgaria. We're vassals one way or another. Bled dry is correct. The entire eastern block was sold out for peanuts during the 90s. I guess that was the price for joining NATO and the EU However, being US/EU vassals is better for us. I personally think that's mainly because the so called west has all the money in the world. That's the root cause. Not culture, values, etc. Those are all secondary to having money for so long. While I understand the stated reasons for the invasion, and they are much more valid then America's struggle to steal as much resources as possible from all over the world under the guise of "democracy" and "WMDs", I fear we'll be next. I don't want to be under their boots. My family has suffered enough under the Soviets It fucking sucks to be on the outskirts
weisk 5y ago
You seem like a knowledgeable person. What does Ukraine really have, that Putin so desperately wants? And best of luck to you, dear friends.
- wolverine876 5y ago
  I'm not the person you asked, but the very well-known understanding, going back probably to Napoleon or earlier (among foreign policy experts), is that Ukraine has geopolitics. Geography is far more important to national power than non-experts realize. Without Ukraine's Crimean peninsula, Russia loses sea access to the Black Sea and thus the Mediterranean for their navy (and also for trade), which historically has been a primary determinant of Russian military influence in Europe. Otherwise, they only have northern ports which are frozen and easily choked off (and ports way over on the Pacific - imagine having to sail your navy around Eurasia in order to attack or defend). More importantly, Ukraine's geography is easy to move large forces across, in that respect a major battlefield (with due respect to Ukrainians). Napoleon and the Nazis both crossed through that region on their way to Russia, and when Russia attacks West, they go through Ukraine. Russian wants to control it and to prevent others from controlling it. By controlling Ukraine, Russia can put more pressure on, have more influence over, Ukraine's neighbors, including Poland, and further cut off Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia from their NATO allies. Finally, Putin wants glory - don't underestimate the personal characteristics, such as ego, of unaccountable dictators - and to recreate the Soviet empire and the illusion of power. An independent, democratic Ukraine both undermines that appearance (and perception is everything for dictators) and embarasses Putin's claim to power as an authoritarian dictator.
  - lurquer 5y ago
    > Napoleon and the Nazis both crossed through that region on their way to Russia Hitler yes. Napoleon no. The French neither attacked nor retreated through what is now Ukraine.
    - wolverine876 5y ago
      Note that I hedged with, "through that region" (because I didn't have time to lookup the route). So which way did they go?
eps 5y ago
> they just have not built hospitals Didn't Biden explicitly say yesterday that they were preparing for the war and in fact built field hospitals, brought blood supplies, etc.?
- okprod 5y ago
  He did and said something to the effect of "we know what that means".
- simne 5y ago
  Biden is not war specialist, he depends on analytics, and he is political person, he may sometime exaggerate things, to save lives. Analytics said, Russian have TECHNICAL resources for war, but unknown in which condition those resources. This remember me old anecdote, in 1960th, American analytics count overall area of all Russian secret enterprises, than compare it with American rocket enterprises, and give to Senate defense comitee prediction, how many rockets USSR already build, to suggest huge increase of defense spending. Members look on this prediction, and asked one simple question: how they could been sure, that all those enterprises made just rockets? And where Soviets build cars, trains, other mechanics? Analytics could not answer to this, and where got out with shame. Returning for technical resources, we have not before invasion know, what will be used. And sure Biden insured for worst possible case, he thought, and we also thought, that Russia will attack with modern high precision weapons, but fortunately, this does not happen. Now we know exactly, that Russian army mostly have extremely old machines, approximately 1970th if account from Western technical level, not Russian. Thanks for sanctions on Russia, they have not modernized much machines for modern level. And 1970th machines, are totally depend on people, they are not automatic at all, and to be exact, they are just support for infantry, which is extremely vulnerable for Ukrainian weapons. Second question where, if Ukrainians will resist, or like in 2014 will drop weapons and surrender - we have Great answer for this question. If Ukrainians where not resist, Russians would be used Ukrainian medical infrastructure. So, kremlin mistaken. To be honest, all mistaken, underestimated Ukrainian forces and Ukrainian people, and overestimated Russians. Because of these mistakes, I could talk to you from Kiev, and we still resist, and I believe, we will win, all world will win, with independent Ukraine.
yobbo 5y ago
> because have not enough medicine institutions to heal wounded. They might not care? Significant casualties might be part of the calculation, if it's an all-or-nothing move by their leaders. The existence of their mobile crematoriums suggest something like it.
- simne 5y ago
  > They might not care? It is impossible. I know Russians very deep, they are not demons. Russian outlook, as I know, is very close to just ordinary beggars, some are criminal, but not many. So most of them have not strong moral values, but they don't want to be wounded or die. So they will not care too much, if they just need to press button or "just attach box to pipe in concentration camp". And we also know, that Russian army is in reality not high tech army, most their weapons are based on 1960th technologies, no electronic computers at all, paper maps, old analogue radio, etc, so their technologies cannot work without people (US have large number of modern automatic weapons). And even before invasion, we know about very low morale in Russian army, but if Russian soldiers will conclude, that nobody will care wounded, they will surrender just after see Ukrainians without any shoot.

by simne 5y ago

JumpCrisscross 5y ago

Thank you for the insight. Godspeed. If you have links to organisations we can support from far away (with money, labour or lobbying), those would be appreciated.

jtsuken 5y ago
The central bank accepts donations on behalf of the Ukrainian army: https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-spetsrahunok-dlya-zboru-koshtiv-na-potrebi-armiyi https://bank.gov.ua/en/news/all/natsionalniy-bank-vidkriv-sp...
- nopenopenopeno 5y ago
  - oblio 5y ago
    This is crap. 9 Eastern European countries in the former Soviet sphere joined NATO and the EU and are currently going through one of their longest periods of growth and peace in their history. There can be no long term prosperity with Russia.
    - nopenopenopeno 5y ago
      They are being bled dry of everything the’ve got for the Western European elite. The benefits go to the upper classes while the working people suffer.
      - mantas 5y ago
        Coming from ex-USSR... Western European elite is much much much better than Russian elite...
      - beebeepka 5y ago
        That's true. I know because I am from Bulgaria. We're vassals one way or another. Bled dry is correct. The entire eastern block was sold out for peanuts during the 90s. I guess that was the price for joining NATO and the EU However, being US/EU vassals is better for us. I personally think that's mainly because the so called west has all the money in the world. That's the root cause. Not culture, values, etc. Those are all secondary to having money for so long. While I understand the stated reasons for the invasion, and they are much more valid then America's struggle to steal as much resources as possible from all over the world under the guise of "democracy" and "WMDs", I fear we'll be next. I don't want to be under their boots. My family has suffered enough under the Soviets It fucking sucks to be on the outskirts

weisk 5y ago

You seem like a knowledgeable person. What does Ukraine really have, that Putin so desperately wants? And best of luck to you, dear friends.

wolverine876 5y ago
I'm not the person you asked, but the very well-known understanding, going back probably to Napoleon or earlier (among foreign policy experts), is that Ukraine has geopolitics. Geography is far more important to national power than non-experts realize. Without Ukraine's Crimean peninsula, Russia loses sea access to the Black Sea and thus the Mediterranean for their navy (and also for trade), which historically has been a primary determinant of Russian military influence in Europe. Otherwise, they only have northern ports which are frozen and easily choked off (and ports way over on the Pacific - imagine having to sail your navy around Eurasia in order to attack or defend). More importantly, Ukraine's geography is easy to move large forces across, in that respect a major battlefield (with due respect to Ukrainians). Napoleon and the Nazis both crossed through that region on their way to Russia, and when Russia attacks West, they go through Ukraine. Russian wants to control it and to prevent others from controlling it. By controlling Ukraine, Russia can put more pressure on, have more influence over, Ukraine's neighbors, including Poland, and further cut off Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia from their NATO allies. Finally, Putin wants glory - don't underestimate the personal characteristics, such as ego, of unaccountable dictators - and to recreate the Soviet empire and the illusion of power. An independent, democratic Ukraine both undermines that appearance (and perception is everything for dictators) and embarasses Putin's claim to power as an authoritarian dictator.
- lurquer 5y ago
  > Napoleon and the Nazis both crossed through that region on their way to Russia Hitler yes. Napoleon no. The French neither attacked nor retreated through what is now Ukraine.
  - wolverine876 5y ago
    Note that I hedged with, "through that region" (because I didn't have time to lookup the route). So which way did they go?

eps 5y ago

> they just have not built hospitals Didn't Biden explicitly say yesterday that they were preparing for the war and in fact built field hospitals, brought blood supplies, etc.?

okprod 5y ago
He did and said something to the effect of "we know what that means".
simne 5y ago
Biden is not war specialist, he depends on analytics, and he is political person, he may sometime exaggerate things, to save lives. Analytics said, Russian have TECHNICAL resources for war, but unknown in which condition those resources. This remember me old anecdote, in 1960th, American analytics count overall area of all Russian secret enterprises, than compare it with American rocket enterprises, and give to Senate defense comitee prediction, how many rockets USSR already build, to suggest huge increase of defense spending. Members look on this prediction, and asked one simple question: how they could been sure, that all those enterprises made just rockets? And where Soviets build cars, trains, other mechanics? Analytics could not answer to this, and where got out with shame. Returning for technical resources, we have not before invasion know, what will be used. And sure Biden insured for worst possible case, he thought, and we also thought, that Russia will attack with modern high precision weapons, but fortunately, this does not happen. Now we know exactly, that Russian army mostly have extremely old machines, approximately 1970th if account from Western technical level, not Russian. Thanks for sanctions on Russia, they have not modernized much machines for modern level. And 1970th machines, are totally depend on people, they are not automatic at all, and to be exact, they are just support for infantry, which is extremely vulnerable for Ukrainian weapons. Second question where, if Ukrainians will resist, or like in 2014 will drop weapons and surrender - we have Great answer for this question. If Ukrainians where not resist, Russians would be used Ukrainian medical infrastructure. So, kremlin mistaken. To be honest, all mistaken, underestimated Ukrainian forces and Ukrainian people, and overestimated Russians. Because of these mistakes, I could talk to you from Kiev, and we still resist, and I believe, we will win, all world will win, with independent Ukraine.

yobbo 5y ago

> because have not enough medicine institutions to heal wounded. They might not care? Significant casualties might be part of the calculation, if it's an all-or-nothing move by their leaders. The existence of their mobile crematoriums suggest something like it.

simne 5y ago
> They might not care? It is impossible. I know Russians very deep, they are not demons. Russian outlook, as I know, is very close to just ordinary beggars, some are criminal, but not many. So most of them have not strong moral values, but they don't want to be wounded or die. So they will not care too much, if they just need to press button or "just attach box to pipe in concentration camp". And we also know, that Russian army is in reality not high tech army, most their weapons are based on 1960th technologies, no electronic computers at all, paper maps, old analogue radio, etc, so their technologies cannot work without people (US have large number of modern automatic weapons). And even before invasion, we know about very low morale in Russian army, but if Russian soldiers will conclude, that nobody will care wounded, they will surrender just after see Ukrainians without any shoot.