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The Russian forces seem to be trying to encircle or assault Kyiv. I think they've taken the nuclear plant because it is a defensible point along their shortest

The Russian forces seem to be trying to encircle or assault Kyiv. I think they've taken the nuclear plant because it is a defensible point along their shortest line of advance. They wouldn't want to move past it without controlling the site.

nine_k 5y ago
Also, either side would be pretty reluctant to bomb it, or otherwise battle too hard close to it. It's a great position to hold if you can.
- hutzlibu 5y ago
  "It's a great position to hold if you can." It is a great position to hold and fight in, because the area is pretty empty of civilians. And russia must avoid ukranian (russian in their eyes) civilian casualties, to not loose the little popular support they have for this war. And neither side will be so stupid to directly bomb the remains of the reactor, but I think it would need a serious direct bombing, for radiation to leak out. I don't think there can be still a major uncontrolled chain reaction. The worst that can happen under normal circumstances, is radiation leaking out. (but all this is from the back of my head knowledge, about documentaries about chernobyl, I might be wrong)
  - bayesian_horse 5y ago
    The issue is not about bombing or not bombing it, also the area is worthless from a strategic point of view. It's just that somebody has to be in control of it, and the Russians can't or don't want to depend on Ukrainian forces to do that right now.
  - celticninja 5y ago
    I don't think Putin is worried about loss of life of Ukrainian citizens. He is worried about losing soldiers, or more importantly dead soldiers being repatriated on the news. They will cover up civilian casualties or blame them on Ukrainian troops. The only support for this will come from Russia domestically and it is that which he seeks to maintain with this war. Which I'm guessing he hoped would be quick and decisive, avoiding the bloodshed of Russian soldiers that will be his undoing at home.
    - hutzlibu 5y ago
      "I don't think Putin is worried about loss of life of Ukrainian citizens." Then he would just shell and flatten all the ukrainian cities. Russia has air superiority as far as I know.
      - selfhoster11 5y ago
        Every city he doesn't shell, is a city he doesn't have to rebuild. Roads and other pieces of infrastructure are valuable, no matter how old.
        hutzlibu 5y ago
        And every ukrainian with family ties to russias heartland that not dies, is one family less to worry about politically.
      - EugeneOZ 5y ago
        Putin just wants to create another puppet-state, same as Belarus. He absolutely doesn't care about the lives of civilians, but ruining the infrastructure is not in his plans (only strategical infrastructure)
    - csee 5y ago
      He should be worried about catastrophic losses like that, it'd be a propaganda coup against him. Small scale killings can be swept under the rug though.
      - drekipus 5y ago
        This isn't the US in Iraq, we're talking about Russia and Ukraine here
        csee 5y ago
        Russia still has social media. A catastrophic loss of Ukranian civilians in one event won't get buried easily.
  - anothernewdude 5y ago
    Then their bombing of hospitals was a bit silly
- giantg2 5y ago
  They probably don't want to damage the structure itself, but the exclusion zone around it is quite large with little risk of collateral damage (possibly easier to engage).
  - BuyMyBitcoins 5y ago
    There is a lot of contamination that was simply buried underneath the topsoil during the cleanup efforts. Bombing or artillery strikes would likely cause some of that to be kicked back up into the atmosphere.
    - giantg2 5y ago
      Good point.
bayesian_horse 5y ago
I think they seized it because they need the general area to move their troops. In that case they can't tolerate Ukrainian troops there, but somebody has to be in control and responsible for this site to ensure, among other things, no terrorists make off with radioactive material. I'm totally condemning the Russian actions, but in this particular case they may be acting somewhat responsibly. Unlike with the bombing of civilians or the whole damn war in the first place!
- odiroot 5y ago
  - smsm42 5y ago
    The station has been shut down since 2000. There's no power supply there.
    - Arrath 5y ago
      Could it still be an important part of the distribution network? Lines, substations, etc.
      - epolanski 5y ago
        It's simply the shortest and simplest path from Belarus to Kiev. It has strategic military value.
  - garaetjjte 5y ago
    Chernobyl power plant isn't operational since 2000.
    - rob74 5y ago
      Which still means that it operated for 14 years after the accident. Must have been a very "special" workplace for the engineers involved...
smsm42 5y ago
Also because it's very dangerous to attack a place where there's a lot of radioactive waste being stored. And if things go really bad, you can always pull off a "insane Ukrainians just shelled the power plant and broke nuclear containment" - if Russians can't have Kiev, nobody will have it.
- yread 5y ago
  > An official familiar with current assessments said Russian shelling hit a radioactive waste repository at Chernobyl, and an increase in radiation levels was reported. The increase could not be immediately corroborated. You mean like this? https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-chernobyl-russia-invasion-6f4b2da3c9623b7f1bf8f250a73a1bb5 https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-chernobyl-russia-invasion...
scyzoryk_xyz 5y ago
Also a great news bullet point in the information war. "Russian forces taking Chernobyl" sounds much more familiar and much more terrifying than "Russian forces taking Chernihiv region" to all of us unfamiliar with the country. Even if strategically realistically it's the latter that is more important than the former.
- godmode2019 5y ago
  It also has the following affect: """Don't the Russians already own Chernobyl? I guess it must not be in Russia. I saw a movie and I think they were speaking Russian. Wow they must be crazy actually entering a radiation zone, won't half of the troops die from exposure. I wouldn't want my son fighting those lunatics."""
  - gutitout 5y ago
    A lot of people there do speak Russian there. And yes it’s still radioactive, albeit less than a few decades ago. If you’re sending your son to fight, radiation probably the last thing to kill him.
    - munk-a 5y ago
      And to add to this - burn pits, and other common actions in the waging of war, can cause more severe chemical damage than radiation. When the order of the day is "We're killing other people" there tends to be a lot less emphasis on doing things as safely as possible.
  - giantg2 5y ago
    I think it would be crazy for another reason - there is very little in that area that could be collateral damage, and there's not really anyone who is supposed to be in there. This should make it very easy to target forces in the exclusion zone.
  - godmode2019 5y ago
    Not sure why people are down voting maybe they didn't understand the comment. It was to represent the thoughts of the general western public. 99% of normal people don't know anything about the world. Text inside quotes is how normal people think when they hear Russian forces have captured Chernobyl. Invasion aside, capturing Chernobyl is good PR. When most people think Chernobyl is already in Russia and most people think going there is instant death.
squarefoot 5y ago
> The Russian forces seem to be trying to encircle or assault Kyiv. Yes, but although Putin is a bloody bastard, he's not stupid. His plan isn't to take entire control of Ukraine militarily but to swap the legit government with a puppet one he would control at will. Once he succeed, which is a matter of a few days, he'll gradually withdraw most of the forces, things will slowly return to normal and in a few years Ukraine will essentially (if not effectively) annex itself to Russia, with both the EU and US doing nothing but economic sanctions Putin and the oligarchs were long prepared against. Most of Europe depends on Russian gas, which means the moment those sanctions become too harsh is the moment he'll either cut our supply or further raise the prices (my last heating bill already doubled). That's his guarantee against any real action. I'm sorry, but Ukrainian people are screwed.
- pkulak 5y ago
  Holy crap, Europe needs to get off natural gas yesterday.
  - selfhoster11 5y ago
    Everyone who had eyes and was watching the natural gas situation in Germany and other countries to the east of it, would see that even a few years ago.
  - krzat 5y ago
    Shutting down atomic power in Germany was such a brilliant move.
    - toomuchtodo 5y ago
      > Shutting down atomic power in Germany was such a brilliant move. What's done is done. Europe has enough wind potential to power the world [1]. Add solar [2], batteries, transmission, pumped hydro, remaining operational nuclear, and electrify everything (EVs, heat pumps, etc). Fill the remainder with LNG shipments from the US in the short term [3]. It's a national defense/security/sovereignty issue now to get off of Russian gas, and it should be treated as such with regards to allocation of resources to speed the effort. [1] https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/europes-onshore-and-offshore-wind-energy-potential https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/europes-onshore-and-o... [2] https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/solar-seen-claiming-60-of-eu-power-mix-by-2050/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/solar-seen-clai... [3] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-remains-top-destination-us-lng-second-month-running-2022-02-01/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-remains-top-d...
davidzweig 5y ago
It appears there are two bridges across the pripyat river in the vicinity, next crossing is nearly 100km south inside Kiev city.
mytailorisrich 5y ago
The exclusion zone is on the most direct zone from Belarus to Kiev. So they may be securing it as a prelude to sending ground troops to Kiev.
charliea0 5y ago
There appears to be satellite imagery of Russian columns passing through the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, which would support this thesis. https://twitter.com/CSBiggers/status/1497000126719606790 https://twitter.com/CSBiggers/status/1497000126719606790

nine_k 5y ago

Also, either side would be pretty reluctant to bomb it, or otherwise battle too hard close to it. It's a great position to hold if you can.

hutzlibu 5y ago
"It's a great position to hold if you can." It is a great position to hold and fight in, because the area is pretty empty of civilians. And russia must avoid ukranian (russian in their eyes) civilian casualties, to not loose the little popular support they have for this war. And neither side will be so stupid to directly bomb the remains of the reactor, but I think it would need a serious direct bombing, for radiation to leak out. I don't think there can be still a major uncontrolled chain reaction. The worst that can happen under normal circumstances, is radiation leaking out. (but all this is from the back of my head knowledge, about documentaries about chernobyl, I might be wrong)
- bayesian_horse 5y ago
  The issue is not about bombing or not bombing it, also the area is worthless from a strategic point of view. It's just that somebody has to be in control of it, and the Russians can't or don't want to depend on Ukrainian forces to do that right now.
- celticninja 5y ago
  I don't think Putin is worried about loss of life of Ukrainian citizens. He is worried about losing soldiers, or more importantly dead soldiers being repatriated on the news. They will cover up civilian casualties or blame them on Ukrainian troops. The only support for this will come from Russia domestically and it is that which he seeks to maintain with this war. Which I'm guessing he hoped would be quick and decisive, avoiding the bloodshed of Russian soldiers that will be his undoing at home.
  - hutzlibu 5y ago
    "I don't think Putin is worried about loss of life of Ukrainian citizens." Then he would just shell and flatten all the ukrainian cities. Russia has air superiority as far as I know.
    - selfhoster11 5y ago
      Every city he doesn't shell, is a city he doesn't have to rebuild. Roads and other pieces of infrastructure are valuable, no matter how old.
      - hutzlibu 5y ago
        And every ukrainian with family ties to russias heartland that not dies, is one family less to worry about politically.
    - EugeneOZ 5y ago
      Putin just wants to create another puppet-state, same as Belarus. He absolutely doesn't care about the lives of civilians, but ruining the infrastructure is not in his plans (only strategical infrastructure)
  - csee 5y ago
    He should be worried about catastrophic losses like that, it'd be a propaganda coup against him. Small scale killings can be swept under the rug though.
    - drekipus 5y ago
      This isn't the US in Iraq, we're talking about Russia and Ukraine here
      - csee 5y ago
        Russia still has social media. A catastrophic loss of Ukranian civilians in one event won't get buried easily.
- anothernewdude 5y ago
  Then their bombing of hospitals was a bit silly
giantg2 5y ago
They probably don't want to damage the structure itself, but the exclusion zone around it is quite large with little risk of collateral damage (possibly easier to engage).
- BuyMyBitcoins 5y ago
  There is a lot of contamination that was simply buried underneath the topsoil during the cleanup efforts. Bombing or artillery strikes would likely cause some of that to be kicked back up into the atmosphere.
  - giantg2 5y ago
    Good point.

bayesian_horse 5y ago

I think they seized it because they need the general area to move their troops. In that case they can't tolerate Ukrainian troops there, but somebody has to be in control and responsible for this site to ensure, among other things, no terrorists make off with radioactive material. I'm totally condemning the Russian actions, but in this particular case they may be acting somewhat responsibly. Unlike with the bombing of civilians or the whole damn war in the first place!

odiroot 5y ago
- smsm42 5y ago
  The station has been shut down since 2000. There's no power supply there.
  - Arrath 5y ago
    Could it still be an important part of the distribution network? Lines, substations, etc.
    - epolanski 5y ago
      It's simply the shortest and simplest path from Belarus to Kiev. It has strategic military value.
- garaetjjte 5y ago
  Chernobyl power plant isn't operational since 2000.
  - rob74 5y ago
    Which still means that it operated for 14 years after the accident. Must have been a very "special" workplace for the engineers involved...

smsm42 5y ago

Also because it's very dangerous to attack a place where there's a lot of radioactive waste being stored. And if things go really bad, you can always pull off a "insane Ukrainians just shelled the power plant and broke nuclear containment" - if Russians can't have Kiev, nobody will have it.

yread 5y ago
> An official familiar with current assessments said Russian shelling hit a radioactive waste repository at Chernobyl, and an increase in radiation levels was reported. The increase could not be immediately corroborated. You mean like this? https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-chernobyl-russia-invasion-6f4b2da3c9623b7f1bf8f250a73a1bb5 https://apnews.com/article/ukraine-chernobyl-russia-invasion...

scyzoryk_xyz 5y ago

Also a great news bullet point in the information war. "Russian forces taking Chernobyl" sounds much more familiar and much more terrifying than "Russian forces taking Chernihiv region" to all of us unfamiliar with the country. Even if strategically realistically it's the latter that is more important than the former.

godmode2019 5y ago
It also has the following affect: """Don't the Russians already own Chernobyl? I guess it must not be in Russia. I saw a movie and I think they were speaking Russian. Wow they must be crazy actually entering a radiation zone, won't half of the troops die from exposure. I wouldn't want my son fighting those lunatics."""
- gutitout 5y ago
  A lot of people there do speak Russian there. And yes it’s still radioactive, albeit less than a few decades ago. If you’re sending your son to fight, radiation probably the last thing to kill him.
  - munk-a 5y ago
    And to add to this - burn pits, and other common actions in the waging of war, can cause more severe chemical damage than radiation. When the order of the day is "We're killing other people" there tends to be a lot less emphasis on doing things as safely as possible.
- giantg2 5y ago
  I think it would be crazy for another reason - there is very little in that area that could be collateral damage, and there's not really anyone who is supposed to be in there. This should make it very easy to target forces in the exclusion zone.
- godmode2019 5y ago
  Not sure why people are down voting maybe they didn't understand the comment. It was to represent the thoughts of the general western public. 99% of normal people don't know anything about the world. Text inside quotes is how normal people think when they hear Russian forces have captured Chernobyl. Invasion aside, capturing Chernobyl is good PR. When most people think Chernobyl is already in Russia and most people think going there is instant death.

squarefoot 5y ago

> The Russian forces seem to be trying to encircle or assault Kyiv. Yes, but although Putin is a bloody bastard, he's not stupid. His plan isn't to take entire control of Ukraine militarily but to swap the legit government with a puppet one he would control at will. Once he succeed, which is a matter of a few days, he'll gradually withdraw most of the forces, things will slowly return to normal and in a few years Ukraine will essentially (if not effectively) annex itself to Russia, with both the EU and US doing nothing but economic sanctions Putin and the oligarchs were long prepared against. Most of Europe depends on Russian gas, which means the moment those sanctions become too harsh is the moment he'll either cut our supply or further raise the prices (my last heating bill already doubled). That's his guarantee against any real action. I'm sorry, but Ukrainian people are screwed.

pkulak 5y ago
Holy crap, Europe needs to get off natural gas yesterday.
- selfhoster11 5y ago
  Everyone who had eyes and was watching the natural gas situation in Germany and other countries to the east of it, would see that even a few years ago.
- krzat 5y ago
  Shutting down atomic power in Germany was such a brilliant move.
  - toomuchtodo 5y ago
    > Shutting down atomic power in Germany was such a brilliant move. What's done is done. Europe has enough wind potential to power the world [1]. Add solar [2], batteries, transmission, pumped hydro, remaining operational nuclear, and electrify everything (EVs, heat pumps, etc). Fill the remainder with LNG shipments from the US in the short term [3]. It's a national defense/security/sovereignty issue now to get off of Russian gas, and it should be treated as such with regards to allocation of resources to speed the effort. [1] https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/europes-onshore-and-offshore-wind-energy-potential https://www.eea.europa.eu/publications/europes-onshore-and-o... [2] https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/solar-seen-claiming-60-of-eu-power-mix-by-2050/ https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy/news/solar-seen-clai... [3] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-remains-top-destination-us-lng-second-month-running-2022-02-01/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-remains-top-d...

davidzweig 5y ago

It appears there are two bridges across the pripyat river in the vicinity, next crossing is nearly 100km south inside Kiev city.

mytailorisrich 5y ago

The exclusion zone is on the most direct zone from Belarus to Kiev. So they may be securing it as a prelude to sending ground troops to Kiev.

charliea0 5y ago

There appears to be satellite imagery of Russian columns passing through the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, which would support this thesis. https://twitter.com/CSBiggers/status/1497000126719606790 https://twitter.com/CSBiggers/status/1497000126719606790