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I've actually wondered if this whole gambit of his is a last ditch "legacy" hail Mary pass, because he's nearing some personal or administrative fin de ciecle (

by zeruch 5y ago

I've actually wondered if this whole gambit of his is a last ditch "legacy" hail Mary pass, because he's nearing some personal or administrative fin de ciecle (or both); whether because of his own mortality and/or because the regime is, after decades of perpetual crisis, now exhausted and running out of ways to otherwise scare the markets into sustaining him, he's now going back to the 80s for inspiration. Whether the Ukraine turns into Afghanistan part II is yet to be seen, but there are certainly enough folks still alive from the tail end of the USSR (who are not part of Russia) to recall that period, and want no part of it. The Baltics seem to be the first to start really firing off the klaxons. I suspect (or at least have seen no evidence to the contrary) that Putin has set up no real successor to him, so most likely if he does expire, Russia will yet again drop vertically into total chaos.

crate_barre 5y ago
Autocrats just kill their enemies. MBS in Saudi Arabia locked a bunch of wealthy people in a hotel and tortured them because they were fucking around with Aramco. In reality, Putin is not doing enough compared to his counterparts in China and SA, Turkey, etc, to extinguish his foes internally. This war might be a good chance to launch an internal campaign on ‘traitors’ who happen to be oligarchs. The cost is to become a global pariah, but hey, Iran and North Korea manage. China won’t ever stop working with them.
- zeruch 5y ago
  "China won’t ever stop working with them." Not really. They've had a co-opitition things for decades (in the 60s they nearly went to a nuclear exchange, and it stayed frosty well into the 90s and has been touch and go since depending on who is benefitting from what; TBH I suspect Russia is also concerned about becoming a junior partner to the Politburo of Beijing, but first things first and their mutual enemy (the US) seems to be keeping them tenuously together. But if Russia causes any negative externalities on the Chinese economy, it won't drive the PRC to the US, but could very much still push them out of assisting them in any way whatsoever. Even this month China has been talking about unassailable aspects of sovereign borders and not getting involved in such dsputes.

by zeruch 5y ago

crate_barre 5y ago

Autocrats just kill their enemies. MBS in Saudi Arabia locked a bunch of wealthy people in a hotel and tortured them because they were fucking around with Aramco. In reality, Putin is not doing enough compared to his counterparts in China and SA, Turkey, etc, to extinguish his foes internally. This war might be a good chance to launch an internal campaign on ‘traitors’ who happen to be oligarchs. The cost is to become a global pariah, but hey, Iran and North Korea manage. China won’t ever stop working with them.

zeruch 5y ago
"China won’t ever stop working with them." Not really. They've had a co-opitition things for decades (in the 60s they nearly went to a nuclear exchange, and it stayed frosty well into the 90s and has been touch and go since depending on who is benefitting from what; TBH I suspect Russia is also concerned about becoming a junior partner to the Politburo of Beijing, but first things first and their mutual enemy (the US) seems to be keeping them tenuously together. But if Russia causes any negative externalities on the Chinese economy, it won't drive the PRC to the US, but could very much still push them out of assisting them in any way whatsoever. Even this month China has been talking about unassailable aspects of sovereign borders and not getting involved in such dsputes.