4 ms·

The flip side of that is that the Europeans are heavily dependent on those exports.

cjrp 5y ago
True, ultimately it comes down to which country is more willing to let their population suffer. I know where my money is.
- wbsss4412 5y ago
  It’s not even about that. It looks like Putin is making the correct calculation that the west would suffer more. Look at the Chinese reaction, it is very unlikely he would be making this move without at least tacit Chinese support. He has an outlet for all of that energy and grain. Where will Europe recover that supply from?
  - Fatnino 5y ago
    From wherever China is buying it now.
    - wbsss4412 5y ago
      You mean like Iran? Oil is fungible to a significant degree, but oil politics are not.
      - posix_me_less 5y ago
        Are you sure? Now Iran suddenly seems more likeable partner for oil trade than Russia. And Europe always wanted the JCPOA deal.
        wbsss4412 5y ago
        Yes, except now the Iranians also suddenly have significantly more leverage in negotiating a new treaty. Coming to a timely agreement there is not a foregone conclusion. The key balance here is with the Iranians and the saudis. In all likelihood the nato response hinges on how much support they can count in the Middle East.
smoe 5y ago
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission said they have spent weeks prior to this getting assurances from other countries to increase their gas deliveries. They named Azerbaijan, Egypt, Nigeria and Norway. She said, they are now in a state, where they can't be pressured trough gas deliveries from Russia. Whether this is true, I have no idea.
- caeril 5y ago
  Weeks? JFL. You can't build LNG transfer depots to replace half of your pipeline deliveries in years, let alone weeks.
  - smoe 5y ago
    Just passing on what was said, I don't have much knowledge on this topic. As I understood, they were implying importing more gas from other countries on existing infrastructure, not building entirely new one. Looking at this, Russian LNG imports makes up 20%. Doesn't seem to be completly impossible for the other countries on that list to cover for it at maybe a higher price. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51358 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51358

cjrp 5y ago

True, ultimately it comes down to which country is more willing to let their population suffer. I know where my money is.

wbsss4412 5y ago
It’s not even about that. It looks like Putin is making the correct calculation that the west would suffer more. Look at the Chinese reaction, it is very unlikely he would be making this move without at least tacit Chinese support. He has an outlet for all of that energy and grain. Where will Europe recover that supply from?
- Fatnino 5y ago
  From wherever China is buying it now.
  - wbsss4412 5y ago
    You mean like Iran? Oil is fungible to a significant degree, but oil politics are not.
    - posix_me_less 5y ago
      Are you sure? Now Iran suddenly seems more likeable partner for oil trade than Russia. And Europe always wanted the JCPOA deal.
      - wbsss4412 5y ago
        Yes, except now the Iranians also suddenly have significantly more leverage in negotiating a new treaty. Coming to a timely agreement there is not a foregone conclusion. The key balance here is with the Iranians and the saudis. In all likelihood the nato response hinges on how much support they can count in the Middle East.

smoe 5y ago

Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission said they have spent weeks prior to this getting assurances from other countries to increase their gas deliveries. They named Azerbaijan, Egypt, Nigeria and Norway. She said, they are now in a state, where they can't be pressured trough gas deliveries from Russia. Whether this is true, I have no idea.

caeril 5y ago
Weeks? JFL. You can't build LNG transfer depots to replace half of your pipeline deliveries in years, let alone weeks.
- smoe 5y ago
  Just passing on what was said, I don't have much knowledge on this topic. As I understood, they were implying importing more gas from other countries on existing infrastructure, not building entirely new one. Looking at this, Russian LNG imports makes up 20%. Doesn't seem to be completly impossible for the other countries on that list to cover for it at maybe a higher price. https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51358 https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=51358