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Taiwan has never been a NATO member. Taiwan has semiconductors western industry depends on. And the primary reason for AUKUS and giving the Aussies nuclear su

Taiwan has never been a NATO member. Taiwan has semiconductors western industry depends on. And the primary reason for AUKUS and giving the Aussies nuclear sub tech is precisely so their subs will have the range to help counter China. China just "sanctioned" (largely performative) Lockheed and Boeing over a $100 million arms sale to Taiwan. Never mind various economic measures from all parts of the West. The developed world is already doing things about China's Taiwan ambitions, and have motivations far stronger than altruism to continue doing so. Ukraine by contrast is not as well integrated as Taiwan, and it's their desire to be integrated that set Putin off in the first place. If said integration meant nothing, Putin wouldn't be invading.

jacquesm 5y ago
Well, let's see what happens when Taiwan applies to NATO then. > Taiwan has semiconductors western industry depends on. For once it isn't about oil. > And the primary reason for AUKUS and giving the Aussies nuclear sub tech is precisely so their subs will have the range to help counter China. I'm sure the Chinese are most impressed. But Australia too will stand by when the Chinese invade Taiwan. > China just "sanctioned" (largely performative) Lockheed and Boeing over a $100 million arms sale to Taiwan. You need to separate out the economic incentives from the political ones there to get a clearer picture of what is happening. > Never mind various economic measures from all parts of the West. The developed world is already doing things about China's Taiwan ambitions, and have motivations far stronger than altruism to continue doing so. China doesn't care about any of that: they care about the United States and them alone because that is the only country that can credibly put up enough force projected into that region to put a stop to it if they decide to move. > Ukraine by contrast is not as well integrated as Taiwan, and it's their desire to be integrated that set Putin off in the first place. You could Swap Ukraine and Taiwan and substitute Xi and you have a winner at some point in the future, provided Taiwan would express a desire to join NATO. > If said integration meant nothing, Putin wouldn't be invading. Put would invade regardless, and this is the mistake that everybody is making: the NATO approach is a figleaf, that only happened after things had already started to slide inside Ukraine. But I'm pretty sure that only a very small fraction of HN is aware of that. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych Was placed to serve as a Russian puppet to keep Ukraine out of the influence of the West, which the country overwhelmingly wanted. After being tossed out (he's since moved to Russia) the whole separatism affair started fueled by Russia. Ukraine had every right to do so, and the occupation and subsequent invasion are proof positive that Ukraine was right about Russia's intentions, not the other way around. You will find a lively corresponding sentiment in lots of other former USSR states.
- scottLobster 5y ago
  I don't think Taiwan will apply for NATO membership. They'll run out strategic ambiguity as long as possible. Regardless, when I say "western integration" I don't mean hard NATO membership. Taiwan is a greater economic player than Ukraine, and a very defensible island, with a very different set of political entanglements. The situations may look similar in the abstract, but it's comparing oranges to lemons. I'm also not sure why you think the Aussies would stand by. They're already in their own economic war with China and by joining AUKUS have made their position abundantly clear. New Zealand would probably stand by, but honestly they don't matter that much militarily. China is making enemy after enemy on the assumption that their enemies are fundamentally weak/corrupt and can be rolled over, while uniting under an ethno-nationalist/cult of personality leadership. They aren't the first in history to make that mistake. And if they continue down that road it ends in bloody defeat.
- jessaustin 5y ago
  ...was placed to serve as a Russian puppet to keep Ukraine out of the influence of the West, which the country overwhelmingly wanted. After being tossed out... Could some trouble have been avoided if Yanukovych had left office via election rather than via coup? How many Ukrainians really considered his negotiation tactics with EU so unbecoming that he should have been summarily removed via "extralegal" means?
  - CRConrad 5y ago
    I refer the gentleman to my (amicus curiae) reply in the matter of Arkell vs Pressdr-- eh, avgcorrect vs mise_en_place: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30539581 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30539581
    - jessaustin 5y ago
      Someone else chooses to reply to a simple question with something other than an answer to that question... one wonders why? Who benefits?

jacquesm 5y ago

Well, let's see what happens when Taiwan applies to NATO then. > Taiwan has semiconductors western industry depends on. For once it isn't about oil. > And the primary reason for AUKUS and giving the Aussies nuclear sub tech is precisely so their subs will have the range to help counter China. I'm sure the Chinese are most impressed. But Australia too will stand by when the Chinese invade Taiwan. > China just "sanctioned" (largely performative) Lockheed and Boeing over a $100 million arms sale to Taiwan. You need to separate out the economic incentives from the political ones there to get a clearer picture of what is happening. > Never mind various economic measures from all parts of the West. The developed world is already doing things about China's Taiwan ambitions, and have motivations far stronger than altruism to continue doing so. China doesn't care about any of that: they care about the United States and them alone because that is the only country that can credibly put up enough force projected into that region to put a stop to it if they decide to move. > Ukraine by contrast is not as well integrated as Taiwan, and it's their desire to be integrated that set Putin off in the first place. You could Swap Ukraine and Taiwan and substitute Xi and you have a winner at some point in the future, provided Taiwan would express a desire to join NATO. > If said integration meant nothing, Putin wouldn't be invading. Put would invade regardless, and this is the mistake that everybody is making: the NATO approach is a figleaf, that only happened after things had already started to slide inside Ukraine. But I'm pretty sure that only a very small fraction of HN is aware of that. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych Was placed to serve as a Russian puppet to keep Ukraine out of the influence of the West, which the country overwhelmingly wanted. After being tossed out (he's since moved to Russia) the whole separatism affair started fueled by Russia. Ukraine had every right to do so, and the occupation and subsequent invasion are proof positive that Ukraine was right about Russia's intentions, not the other way around. You will find a lively corresponding sentiment in lots of other former USSR states.

scottLobster 5y ago
I don't think Taiwan will apply for NATO membership. They'll run out strategic ambiguity as long as possible. Regardless, when I say "western integration" I don't mean hard NATO membership. Taiwan is a greater economic player than Ukraine, and a very defensible island, with a very different set of political entanglements. The situations may look similar in the abstract, but it's comparing oranges to lemons. I'm also not sure why you think the Aussies would stand by. They're already in their own economic war with China and by joining AUKUS have made their position abundantly clear. New Zealand would probably stand by, but honestly they don't matter that much militarily. China is making enemy after enemy on the assumption that their enemies are fundamentally weak/corrupt and can be rolled over, while uniting under an ethno-nationalist/cult of personality leadership. They aren't the first in history to make that mistake. And if they continue down that road it ends in bloody defeat.
jessaustin 5y ago
...was placed to serve as a Russian puppet to keep Ukraine out of the influence of the West, which the country overwhelmingly wanted. After being tossed out... Could some trouble have been avoided if Yanukovych had left office via election rather than via coup? How many Ukrainians really considered his negotiation tactics with EU so unbecoming that he should have been summarily removed via "extralegal" means?
- CRConrad 5y ago
  I refer the gentleman to my (amicus curiae) reply in the matter of Arkell vs Pressdr-- eh, avgcorrect vs mise_en_place: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30539581 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30539581
  - jessaustin 5y ago
    Someone else chooses to reply to a simple question with something other than an answer to that question... one wonders why? Who benefits?