In most traditional contexts, risk is defined as severity x probability. You outlined the severity of NATO intervention. That is to say, you only described hal

In most traditional contexts, risk is defined as severity x probability. You outlined the severity of NATO intervention. That is to say, you only described half of the equation. It could very well be that Russia assumes the probability of NATO intervention is disproportionately low, meaning the risk calculation is also low. Maybe they think that balance outweighs the economic risk.