4 ms·

I don't believe it was inevitable.

by zx85wes 5y ago

jacquesm 5y ago
It was inevitable since 2014. The only thing that is surprising is that it took this long.
- avgcorrection 5y ago
  Whatever is inevitable for eight years is really not.
  - CRConrad 5y ago
    Maybe not, if you're young enough to think eight years is a long time.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    Well, if you were looking a bit more closely you would have noticed a lot of little steps all leading to that goal, so as far as I'm concerned it was inevitable, but you are of course entirely entitled to your own worldview.
wbsss4412 5y ago
How, in your estimation, could it have been averted then? The west doesn’t really hold the cards at the moment.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  That's mostly because they have more to lose.
  - wbsss4412 5y ago
    That doesn’t really answer the question. You claimed that this wasn’t inevitable. From today’s vantage point, it seems pretty clear that this was Putin’s intent all along.
- avgcorrection 5y ago
  The West was ambivalent about eventual Ukraine membership in Nato for 8+ years. What has that achieved? - If Nato had put a memorandum on Ukraine membership: Russia would have less of a reason to attack but Nato wouldn’t be able to help defend Ukraine in case of an attack - Nato stays ambivalent about eventual membership: Russia is more likely to attack and, as stated by the Nato general secretary and the US president, Nato won’t help defend Ukraine in case of an attack
  - kelnos 5y ago
    > memorandum I assume you mean "moratorium"?
    - avgcorrection 5y ago
      Yes :)
onepointsixC 5y ago
Then you did not listen to Putin's speech where he declares all territories which have once been part of the Russian empire as illegitimate states which should be forcibly reintegrated. He outright declared himself an Imperialist with dreams of empire. The only thing which would have dissuaded Putin was overwhelming force.
- zx85wes 5y ago
  And what if Russia detonates a nuclear bomb over these incoming NATO troops?
  - wbsss4412 5y ago
    Then there will be a hot nuclear war. No something I welcome, but the calculations you are making don’t match up with reality. How would you have it? Just let any nuclear armed state invade any country it wants? There has to be a place where the line is drawn.
    - posix_me_less 5y ago
      I have trouble understanding your point of view. What are you suggesting? I hope not that US starts nuclear war with Russia over disagreement about Ukraine?
      - wbsss4412 5y ago
        In the case that Russia drops a nuke on NATO troops, you believe that the US should just accept that with no response? Russia has agency in this scenario. If they drop nukes first they are starting a nuclear war.
layer8 5y ago
The only way it would have been avoidable is for the EU and NATO to withdraw their support (economic, political, military) from Ukraine, in order to enable the Kremlin to bring about a Russia-friendly regime by non-military means. Putin’s goal was always to turn Ukraine back into at least a vassal state of Russia. Given the western-oriented developments in Ukraine since 2014, the opportunity window was slowly closing, time was running out.
- zx85wes 5y ago
  Official neutrality and a trade deal with both the EU and Russia?
  - layer8 5y ago
    You couldn’t prevent the Ukrainian people to predominantly prefer a western orientation, and to vote for a government with western values. The only conceivable way to really satisfy Putin would have been for the Ukraine to be controlled by Russia-aligned propaganda and media, probably with rigged elections, similar to Belarus. Of course, Putin may have hoped that the Ukrainian public would "see the light" and realize that they are really Russian people (as Putin seems to think they ought to) and align themselves accordingly, but that would have been a pipe dream.

I don't believe it was inevitable.

jacquesm 5y ago

It was inevitable since 2014. The only thing that is surprising is that it took this long.

avgcorrection 5y ago
Whatever is inevitable for eight years is really not.
- CRConrad 5y ago
  Maybe not, if you're young enough to think eight years is a long time.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  Well, if you were looking a bit more closely you would have noticed a lot of little steps all leading to that goal, so as far as I'm concerned it was inevitable, but you are of course entirely entitled to your own worldview.

wbsss4412 5y ago

How, in your estimation, could it have been averted then? The west doesn’t really hold the cards at the moment.

jacquesm 5y ago
That's mostly because they have more to lose.
- wbsss4412 5y ago
  That doesn’t really answer the question. You claimed that this wasn’t inevitable. From today’s vantage point, it seems pretty clear that this was Putin’s intent all along.
avgcorrection 5y ago
The West was ambivalent about eventual Ukraine membership in Nato for 8+ years. What has that achieved? - If Nato had put a memorandum on Ukraine membership: Russia would have less of a reason to attack but Nato wouldn’t be able to help defend Ukraine in case of an attack - Nato stays ambivalent about eventual membership: Russia is more likely to attack and, as stated by the Nato general secretary and the US president, Nato won’t help defend Ukraine in case of an attack
- kelnos 5y ago
  > memorandum I assume you mean "moratorium"?
  - avgcorrection 5y ago
    Yes :)

onepointsixC 5y ago

Then you did not listen to Putin's speech where he declares all territories which have once been part of the Russian empire as illegitimate states which should be forcibly reintegrated. He outright declared himself an Imperialist with dreams of empire. The only thing which would have dissuaded Putin was overwhelming force.

zx85wes 5y ago
And what if Russia detonates a nuclear bomb over these incoming NATO troops?
- wbsss4412 5y ago
  Then there will be a hot nuclear war. No something I welcome, but the calculations you are making don’t match up with reality. How would you have it? Just let any nuclear armed state invade any country it wants? There has to be a place where the line is drawn.
  - posix_me_less 5y ago
    I have trouble understanding your point of view. What are you suggesting? I hope not that US starts nuclear war with Russia over disagreement about Ukraine?
    - wbsss4412 5y ago
      In the case that Russia drops a nuke on NATO troops, you believe that the US should just accept that with no response? Russia has agency in this scenario. If they drop nukes first they are starting a nuclear war.

layer8 5y ago

The only way it would have been avoidable is for the EU and NATO to withdraw their support (economic, political, military) from Ukraine, in order to enable the Kremlin to bring about a Russia-friendly regime by non-military means. Putin’s goal was always to turn Ukraine back into at least a vassal state of Russia. Given the western-oriented developments in Ukraine since 2014, the opportunity window was slowly closing, time was running out.

zx85wes 5y ago
Official neutrality and a trade deal with both the EU and Russia?
- layer8 5y ago
  You couldn’t prevent the Ukrainian people to predominantly prefer a western orientation, and to vote for a government with western values. The only conceivable way to really satisfy Putin would have been for the Ukraine to be controlled by Russia-aligned propaganda and media, probably with rigged elections, similar to Belarus. Of course, Putin may have hoped that the Ukrainian public would "see the light" and realize that they are really Russian people (as Putin seems to think they ought to) and align themselves accordingly, but that would have been a pipe dream.