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> But it doesn't make sense that a nation as sophisticated as Russia would accept such a high risk of loss. Which means that they might actually believe the ris

by harryf 5y ago

> But it doesn't make sense that a nation as sophisticated as Russia would accept such a high risk of loss. Which means that they might actually believe the risk of NATO intervention is low. Or they see it like Poker as an "all in" move. Either lose now on their own terms in Ukraine or eventually they lose anyway as Ukraine joins NATO and Russia's nuclear advantages are "neutralized". Meanwhile there's the chance NATO may not intervene so take the risk...

jacquesm 5y ago
This is pretty close to how I view all this. Putin knows the game is lost and so this is an all-in gambit in the hope of forestalling the inevitable.
- heyoni 5y ago
  From the little I know about history, it seems like Russia has no problem throwing human lives away for the sake of winning any conflict.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    Unfortunately very true. And that has already begun, there are already Russian casualties.
- beamatronic 5y ago
  What "game" is lost? Nobody is threatening to invade them. Why don't they create better future for their people the peaceful way - pursue math, education, science, even encourage tourism.
  - jacquesm 5y ago
    Because that's now how a kleptocracy works. Russia is essentially a failed state, a Mafia group with nuclear arms. They simply don't think in those terms, because in that world the people who are currently in power would have no role to play.
anonymouse008 5y ago
And you still have the new Silk Road to bank on -- I can't help but feel that Taiwan is next. Which is probably why the US doesn't want to split efforts across two theaters again.
- ddalex 5y ago
  US can't intervene in Ukraine since that would lead directly to WW3 (americans and russians firing at each other) So far China didn't threaten nuclear war for anybody helping out Taiwan, the way Putin did just today.
  - QuarterReptile 5y ago
    Are you kidding? https://kutv.com/news/nation-world/in-propaganda-video-china-threatens-to-nuke-japan-after-japan-vows-to-defend-taiwan https://kutv.com/news/nation-world/in-propaganda-video-china...
dragonwriter 5y ago
> Or they see it like Poker as an "all in" move. The “all in” move was when they suggested they NATO not meeting their demands to permanently commit to excluding Ukraine and withdraw allied forces from Eastern European members of NATO was an aggressive act pushing them to war in Ukraine. When NATO didn't fold, they either had to invade or show the Putin regime as a paper tiger, which is a mortal blow for an authoritarian regime. They spent many years on efforts to weaken governments of the West and relations between them for the purpose of doing something like that and having Western unity collapse. Maybe they misjudged and thought that would pay off.
- ialwaysforget43 5y ago
  If NATO had met the Russia's demands, wouldn't the invasion have been prevented? I don't understand how the west didn't see that they should at least accept to exclude Ukraine from NATO. Why, giving in to Russia's demand (even partially) would be a loss for NATO?
  - CRConrad 5y ago
    > I don't understand how the west didn't see that they should at least accept to exclude Ukraine from NATO. What would the world have got in return from Russia? A solemn promise, a ratified agreement in writing and everything, that Russia would make no demands or incursions on Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity? Yeah, something like that would be great. Except that's what the world already got from Russia, in exchange for Ukraine giving up its nukes back in the 1990s. And look how much that piece of paper was worth.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    > If NATO had met the Russia's demands, wouldn't the invasion have been prevented? Probably not, in the long term, and the ability to prevent similar coercive efforts against other nations near Russia would be far less.
  - posix_me_less 5y ago
    Maybe there was a chance for a solution without invasion. But it seems West did not believe/want this. Either this was because West not wanting to look weak or they have a secret plan and wanted Russia to invade... Either way, Western actions leading to this weren't in Ukraine's best interest.

by harryf 5y ago

jacquesm 5y ago

This is pretty close to how I view all this. Putin knows the game is lost and so this is an all-in gambit in the hope of forestalling the inevitable.

heyoni 5y ago
From the little I know about history, it seems like Russia has no problem throwing human lives away for the sake of winning any conflict.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  Unfortunately very true. And that has already begun, there are already Russian casualties.
beamatronic 5y ago
What "game" is lost? Nobody is threatening to invade them. Why don't they create better future for their people the peaceful way - pursue math, education, science, even encourage tourism.
- jacquesm 5y ago
  Because that's now how a kleptocracy works. Russia is essentially a failed state, a Mafia group with nuclear arms. They simply don't think in those terms, because in that world the people who are currently in power would have no role to play.

anonymouse008 5y ago

And you still have the new Silk Road to bank on -- I can't help but feel that Taiwan is next. Which is probably why the US doesn't want to split efforts across two theaters again.

ddalex 5y ago
US can't intervene in Ukraine since that would lead directly to WW3 (americans and russians firing at each other) So far China didn't threaten nuclear war for anybody helping out Taiwan, the way Putin did just today.
- QuarterReptile 5y ago
  Are you kidding? https://kutv.com/news/nation-world/in-propaganda-video-china-threatens-to-nuke-japan-after-japan-vows-to-defend-taiwan https://kutv.com/news/nation-world/in-propaganda-video-china...

dragonwriter 5y ago

> Or they see it like Poker as an "all in" move. The “all in” move was when they suggested they NATO not meeting their demands to permanently commit to excluding Ukraine and withdraw allied forces from Eastern European members of NATO was an aggressive act pushing them to war in Ukraine. When NATO didn't fold, they either had to invade or show the Putin regime as a paper tiger, which is a mortal blow for an authoritarian regime. They spent many years on efforts to weaken governments of the West and relations between them for the purpose of doing something like that and having Western unity collapse. Maybe they misjudged and thought that would pay off.

ialwaysforget43 5y ago
If NATO had met the Russia's demands, wouldn't the invasion have been prevented? I don't understand how the west didn't see that they should at least accept to exclude Ukraine from NATO. Why, giving in to Russia's demand (even partially) would be a loss for NATO?
- CRConrad 5y ago
  > I don't understand how the west didn't see that they should at least accept to exclude Ukraine from NATO. What would the world have got in return from Russia? A solemn promise, a ratified agreement in writing and everything, that Russia would make no demands or incursions on Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity? Yeah, something like that would be great. Except that's what the world already got from Russia, in exchange for Ukraine giving up its nukes back in the 1990s. And look how much that piece of paper was worth.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > If NATO had met the Russia's demands, wouldn't the invasion have been prevented? Probably not, in the long term, and the ability to prevent similar coercive efforts against other nations near Russia would be far less.
- posix_me_less 5y ago
  Maybe there was a chance for a solution without invasion. But it seems West did not believe/want this. Either this was because West not wanting to look weak or they have a secret plan and wanted Russia to invade... Either way, Western actions leading to this weren't in Ukraine's best interest.