4 ms·

Ask HN: What is going on in Ukraine?

11 points by dudus 5y ago

Why is Russia invading Ukraine? What should other countries do about it? What's China position in all this? Economic impact in Europe and America? Is the USA going to war?

creato 5y ago
Trusting anyone on HN or any other social media to answer some of these questions for you is silly.
- h2odragon 5y ago
  Of course the Professional Pundit Class isn't likely to be more informative. They just have a well realized propaganda script to read from already. "the internet" at least gives you glimpses of what people honestly think; even if they aren't the people whose thought one the matter really matters.
dereg 5y ago
I’ve been trying to devour as many lectures about the general situation there as possible and I think I’d start here: [Why is Ukraine the West’s Fault?]( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4) Most other lectures I’ve seen have been reactionary to news of late, whereas this is hauntingly prescient.
cable2600 5y ago
Don't trust HN on this. Read the BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56720589 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56720589 HN is for tech, not geopolitics.
- kzzzznot 5y ago
  BBC is obviously going to have western (and UK) bias, so perhaps better advice would be to read that in addition to other sources from other regions.
  - muzani 5y ago
    There was a survey that shows that most of HN users are American. I'm not, but this place definitely has some American bias. Something like Al Jazeera and SCMP are great non-Western news sources.
- rvz 5y ago
  Oh dear. Trusting one source is not enough and the BBC has a clear bias on this. Use multiple sources, rather than just one (very biased) source.
- muzani 5y ago
  From the guidelines: "Off-Topic: Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, unless they're evidence of some interesting new phenomenon. Videos of pratfalls or disasters, or cute animal pictures. If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-topic." So yeah, the conflict should actually be flagged as off topic.
  - thinkingemote 5y ago
    some interesting new phenomenon
_jhqp 5y ago
My take on this: https://akselallas.xyz/posts/russia-geopolitics/ https://akselallas.xyz/posts/russia-geopolitics/
taneliv 5y ago
One immediate economic impact seems to be that MOEX Russian index https://www.moex.com/en/ https://www.moex.com/en/ is down currently 29.4% from yesterday. Sorry, 30.5% now. Anyway, it updates every minute. Please instead refer to the news sources to the level you trust them, not comments from random people like me, who might or might not be part of some misinformation campaign (whether consciously or not).
wnkrshm 5y ago
My pretty unfounded opinions on this: Because it's now or never, while there still is pro-Russian separatism and the Ukrainian military hasn't become even stronger. Coordinate with China to exert pressure. They don't want sanctions because it's bad for global business. Living costs go up. No, maybe (hopefully?) if the Baltic states get treated the same after Ukraine.
crate_barre 5y ago
Putin is trying to normalize economic relations with the EU. I believe Russia feels like they have been treated like a malicious threat, a necessary evil that EU has been ‘tolerating’ due to energy needs. This is Putin saying, ‘ok we’re so evil, let me show you evil’. They just want to be treated like a legitimate energy partner to Europe and not like a rascal that governments need to find some alternative solution for. The outcome they seek is to wipe the table clean of negative attitudes, scale back of all sanctions, and just general good-faith energy deals without being seen as the worst thing ever. Putin: You need energy, we have energy, we’ll sell it to you. Why are you trying to subvert a simple economic exchange by co-opting Ukraine into NATO and also back dealing alternative pipeline projects? What is so bad about this basic arrangement? You think we are some old Soviet Cold War threat? Ok, let me show you the old Cold War Soviet threat. How come you don’t come fight us? Because we are not the Soviet Union and you know that. That’s all it is. That’s why no one sensible can figure out the rational for any of this, because it really is a respect thing.
MaxPengwing 5y ago
Why is Russia Invading Ukraine? - Many reasons, but I think this book and it's author have had a great influence on the decisions made by the Russian ruling class for the past 20 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics What Should Other Countries do about it? - Accept immigrants, sanction, and do everything to deescalate to stay away from Nuclear war to make sure that under no circumstances Russia is to take the Sulwaki Gap or the Baltic, Sweden and Finland will be next. https://cepa.org/cepa_files/2018-CEPA-report-Securing_The_Suwa%C5%82ki_Corridor.pdf https://cepa.org/cepa_files/2018-CEPA-report-Securing_The_Su... What is chinas position in all of this? - Tentatively a Russian apologist. China has a huge land border with Russia. Neither trust each other very much. If Russia can take Ukraine, then China might use the opportunity to take Taiwan, it's not super likely but not outside the realm of possibility. Mostly China don't want the worlds logistics chains to be fubared with again. A war in Europe might drive up the cost of raw materials and that is not entirely in Chinas favor. Economic Impact in Europe? - Nord stream is now an abject failure and a no go. Germany have to reevaluate starting up their nuclear reactors or the european energy crisis will get worse. American Impact? Cost of owning a car will become high as the global. oil price rises, this happens every time a major war starts. Incidently Russia tend to start some kind of war everytime the oilprice dips under a certain amount, i think it's around 40-45 USD per barrel Brent. Is the USA Going to War? - If Russia decides to move to the Suwlaki gap, then yes most certainly the NATO paragraph 5 will be activated and the USA as a NATO founder will ahve to go to war.
- voltaireodactyl 5y ago
  I’ve looked for an English translation of Foundations of Geopolitics for years but only ever come up with a poor AI translation (supposedly) on Amazon. I feel like I have to be missing something because that book does seem fundamental to what’s going on.
Pinegulf 5y ago
Why is this flagged? I don't see bias in questions. Maybe out of scope of HN?

11 points by dudus 5y ago

Why is Russia invading Ukraine? What should other countries do about it? What's China position in all this? Economic impact in Europe and America? Is the USA going to war?

creato 5y ago

Trusting anyone on HN or any other social media to answer some of these questions for you is silly.

h2odragon 5y ago
Of course the Professional Pundit Class isn't likely to be more informative. They just have a well realized propaganda script to read from already. "the internet" at least gives you glimpses of what people honestly think; even if they aren't the people whose thought one the matter really matters.

dereg 5y ago

I’ve been trying to devour as many lectures about the general situation there as possible and I think I’d start here: [Why is Ukraine the West’s Fault?]( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4) Most other lectures I’ve seen have been reactionary to news of late, whereas this is hauntingly prescient.

cable2600 5y ago

Don't trust HN on this. Read the BBC: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56720589 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-56720589 HN is for tech, not geopolitics.

kzzzznot 5y ago
BBC is obviously going to have western (and UK) bias, so perhaps better advice would be to read that in addition to other sources from other regions.
- muzani 5y ago
  There was a survey that shows that most of HN users are American. I'm not, but this place definitely has some American bias. Something like Al Jazeera and SCMP are great non-Western news sources.
rvz 5y ago
Oh dear. Trusting one source is not enough and the BBC has a clear bias on this. Use multiple sources, rather than just one (very biased) source.
muzani 5y ago
From the guidelines: "Off-Topic: Most stories about politics, or crime, or sports, unless they're evidence of some interesting new phenomenon. Videos of pratfalls or disasters, or cute animal pictures. If they'd cover it on TV news, it's probably off-topic." So yeah, the conflict should actually be flagged as off topic.
- thinkingemote 5y ago
  some interesting new phenomenon

_jhqp 5y ago

My take on this: https://akselallas.xyz/posts/russia-geopolitics/ https://akselallas.xyz/posts/russia-geopolitics/

taneliv 5y ago

One immediate economic impact seems to be that MOEX Russian index https://www.moex.com/en/ https://www.moex.com/en/ is down currently 29.4% from yesterday. Sorry, 30.5% now. Anyway, it updates every minute. Please instead refer to the news sources to the level you trust them, not comments from random people like me, who might or might not be part of some misinformation campaign (whether consciously or not).

wnkrshm 5y ago

My pretty unfounded opinions on this: Because it's now or never, while there still is pro-Russian separatism and the Ukrainian military hasn't become even stronger. Coordinate with China to exert pressure. They don't want sanctions because it's bad for global business. Living costs go up. No, maybe (hopefully?) if the Baltic states get treated the same after Ukraine.

crate_barre 5y ago

Putin is trying to normalize economic relations with the EU. I believe Russia feels like they have been treated like a malicious threat, a necessary evil that EU has been ‘tolerating’ due to energy needs. This is Putin saying, ‘ok we’re so evil, let me show you evil’. They just want to be treated like a legitimate energy partner to Europe and not like a rascal that governments need to find some alternative solution for. The outcome they seek is to wipe the table clean of negative attitudes, scale back of all sanctions, and just general good-faith energy deals without being seen as the worst thing ever. Putin: You need energy, we have energy, we’ll sell it to you. Why are you trying to subvert a simple economic exchange by co-opting Ukraine into NATO and also back dealing alternative pipeline projects? What is so bad about this basic arrangement? You think we are some old Soviet Cold War threat? Ok, let me show you the old Cold War Soviet threat. How come you don’t come fight us? Because we are not the Soviet Union and you know that. That’s all it is. That’s why no one sensible can figure out the rational for any of this, because it really is a respect thing.

MaxPengwing 5y ago

Why is Russia Invading Ukraine? - Many reasons, but I think this book and it's author have had a great influence on the decisions made by the Russian ruling class for the past 20 years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foundations_of_Geopolitics What Should Other Countries do about it? - Accept immigrants, sanction, and do everything to deescalate to stay away from Nuclear war to make sure that under no circumstances Russia is to take the Sulwaki Gap or the Baltic, Sweden and Finland will be next. https://cepa.org/cepa_files/2018-CEPA-report-Securing_The_Suwa%C5%82ki_Corridor.pdf https://cepa.org/cepa_files/2018-CEPA-report-Securing_The_Su... What is chinas position in all of this? - Tentatively a Russian apologist. China has a huge land border with Russia. Neither trust each other very much. If Russia can take Ukraine, then China might use the opportunity to take Taiwan, it's not super likely but not outside the realm of possibility. Mostly China don't want the worlds logistics chains to be fubared with again. A war in Europe might drive up the cost of raw materials and that is not entirely in Chinas favor. Economic Impact in Europe? - Nord stream is now an abject failure and a no go. Germany have to reevaluate starting up their nuclear reactors or the european energy crisis will get worse. American Impact? Cost of owning a car will become high as the global. oil price rises, this happens every time a major war starts. Incidently Russia tend to start some kind of war everytime the oilprice dips under a certain amount, i think it's around 40-45 USD per barrel Brent. Is the USA Going to War? - If Russia decides to move to the Suwlaki gap, then yes most certainly the NATO paragraph 5 will be activated and the USA as a NATO founder will ahve to go to war.

voltaireodactyl 5y ago
I’ve looked for an English translation of Foundations of Geopolitics for years but only ever come up with a poor AI translation (supposedly) on Amazon. I feel like I have to be missing something because that book does seem fundamental to what’s going on.

Pinegulf 5y ago

Why is this flagged? I don't see bias in questions. Maybe out of scope of HN?