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This is happening because the west has no leverage and asymmetrical priorities. Russia -really- cares that Ukraine stays out of NATO, probably to the point wher

by ayngg 5y ago

This is happening because the west has no leverage and asymmetrical priorities. Russia -really- cares that Ukraine stays out of NATO, probably to the point where they would scorched earth the country before it joined, and the west only kinda cares about Ukraine comparatively, as demonstrated in 2014 and 2008. If they actually really care, sanctions don't mean much. Makes me wonder why the west thought the third time would be the charm in this case. A big difference may be domestic politics in the west, things are pretty tenuous both socially and economically, which could benefit from this grandstanding far from home.

rjzzleep 5y ago
> Makes me wonder why the west thought the third time would be the charm in this case Ignorance and arrogance, but mostly arrogance.
- AniseAbyss 5y ago
  Yeah no. I'm sorry for Ukraine but how many people are willing to die over it? War was never on the table and Putin knew it so he acted.
  - phillc73 5y ago
    > I'm sorry for Ukraine but how many people are willing to die over it? Millions of Ukrainians. That is going to be the real tragedy.
    - AniseAbyss 5y ago
      True. And Russians as well. My sympathies are with the little guy and they will pay the price.
raducu 5y ago
Russia does not care about Ukraine joining NATO, Russia has nukes. Russian politicians care about Ukraine being a prospering democracy and a model for russian citizens. That's it.
- vetinari 5y ago
  In order to use nukes effectively, you need to have second strike capabilities. You know, the 'M' in 'MAD'. Ukraine in NATO means US nukes on Russia border, tipping the balance. It would be similar to Russia placing their bases and weapons into Canada or Mexico.
  - mopsi 5y ago
    > Ukraine in NATO means US nukes on Russia border, tipping the balance. No, it does not. A number of Eastern European countries are in NATO and none of them have American nuclear weapons. Where does this silly idea come that after joining NATO, American missiles somehow appear in the new member? Modern-day NATO is a cooperation platform for joint exercises etc, not some missile club that starts delivering ICBMs every month.
    - vetinari 5y ago
      > No, it does not. A number of Eastern Europe countries are in NATO and none of them have American nuclear weapons. Yet. There were murmurs about moving them from Germany to Eastern Europe. Additionally - US has DCAs (Defense Cooperation Agreement; straightly bilateral, nothing to do with NATO) with most EE countries. Nobody knows, what they brought there, US is certainly not telling anyone. The nukes might be already there.
      - dependsontheq 5y ago
        There are no ICBMS in Germany only tactical bombs... these have no military value, there only value is to say that European countries have shared nuclear deterrence. And Russia is big, they have an immense second strike capability from land and from the sea. Wladiwostok is 8000km away from Kiev.
        hamsamrma 5y ago
        I agree with your sentiment, but to say that a weapon capable of creating a Coloseum-sized crater has "no military value" seems a bit off. On the other hand i cannot think of a critical role played by ICBM's in Central Europe, could your share some insights?
ajuc 5y ago
Ukraine wasn't going to be accepted into NATO anyway. They asked. Weren't accepted. Ukraine knows this, Russia knows this, NATO countries know this. It's just Russian excuse for propaganda reasons. The real reason is that Russians consider Ukrainians "the same nation" and if Ukrainians entered EU or some sort of association with it, and got richer than Russians like Poles, Slovaks, Czechs, Balts etc. - it would be very bad for Putin approval in Russia. Russians would start to think "it could be us", "it could work without the tyranny". So Putin can't let westernized, wealthy Ukraine to exist. Same reason he helped Lukashenko to stop revolution in Belarus recently. The rest ("history" lectures, "NATO is encroaching", "Ukrainians are nazis and bombard Russian speakers in Ukraine") - it's just bullshit excuses. Don'r repeat them, please. You are helping an aggressive nationalist dictatorship murder people by accepting their excuses.
- sampo 5y ago
  Here's a 2022 The Atlantic article suggesting the same: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/putin-ukraine-democracy/621465/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/putin-ukra... And a 2014 blog post also suggesting the same: https://skibinsky.com/no-russian/ https://skibinsky.com/no-russian/
- ayngg 5y ago
  I don't think it is either or, NATO is just a symbol for western alignment which reaches the same ends you describe. Beyond whatever foundational context, the three conflicts related the Ukraine and Georgia were precipitated by this (specifically most recently with the Brussels summit in 2021) which suggests it is a very definitive line in the sand, regardless of whether or not it is the actual reasoning. This is the third time the west has tested that line, it is the third time Russia has responded in this way, and it will most likely be the third time the West does nothing but implement sanctions because it isn't as important to them as it is to Russia. This isn't a justification for actions, it is about understanding the situation through the chaos.
watwut 5y ago
Putin said the Ukraine is not a real nation, so we can rest the whole nato nonsense.

by ayngg 5y ago

rjzzleep 5y ago

> Makes me wonder why the west thought the third time would be the charm in this case Ignorance and arrogance, but mostly arrogance.

AniseAbyss 5y ago
Yeah no. I'm sorry for Ukraine but how many people are willing to die over it? War was never on the table and Putin knew it so he acted.
- phillc73 5y ago
  > I'm sorry for Ukraine but how many people are willing to die over it? Millions of Ukrainians. That is going to be the real tragedy.
  - AniseAbyss 5y ago
    True. And Russians as well. My sympathies are with the little guy and they will pay the price.

raducu 5y ago

Russia does not care about Ukraine joining NATO, Russia has nukes. Russian politicians care about Ukraine being a prospering democracy and a model for russian citizens. That's it.

vetinari 5y ago
In order to use nukes effectively, you need to have second strike capabilities. You know, the 'M' in 'MAD'. Ukraine in NATO means US nukes on Russia border, tipping the balance. It would be similar to Russia placing their bases and weapons into Canada or Mexico.
- mopsi 5y ago
  > Ukraine in NATO means US nukes on Russia border, tipping the balance. No, it does not. A number of Eastern European countries are in NATO and none of them have American nuclear weapons. Where does this silly idea come that after joining NATO, American missiles somehow appear in the new member? Modern-day NATO is a cooperation platform for joint exercises etc, not some missile club that starts delivering ICBMs every month.
  - vetinari 5y ago
    > No, it does not. A number of Eastern Europe countries are in NATO and none of them have American nuclear weapons. Yet. There were murmurs about moving them from Germany to Eastern Europe. Additionally - US has DCAs (Defense Cooperation Agreement; straightly bilateral, nothing to do with NATO) with most EE countries. Nobody knows, what they brought there, US is certainly not telling anyone. The nukes might be already there.
    - dependsontheq 5y ago
      There are no ICBMS in Germany only tactical bombs... these have no military value, there only value is to say that European countries have shared nuclear deterrence. And Russia is big, they have an immense second strike capability from land and from the sea. Wladiwostok is 8000km away from Kiev.
      - hamsamrma 5y ago
        I agree with your sentiment, but to say that a weapon capable of creating a Coloseum-sized crater has "no military value" seems a bit off. On the other hand i cannot think of a critical role played by ICBM's in Central Europe, could your share some insights?

ajuc 5y ago

Ukraine wasn't going to be accepted into NATO anyway. They asked. Weren't accepted. Ukraine knows this, Russia knows this, NATO countries know this. It's just Russian excuse for propaganda reasons. The real reason is that Russians consider Ukrainians "the same nation" and if Ukrainians entered EU or some sort of association with it, and got richer than Russians like Poles, Slovaks, Czechs, Balts etc. - it would be very bad for Putin approval in Russia. Russians would start to think "it could be us", "it could work without the tyranny". So Putin can't let westernized, wealthy Ukraine to exist. Same reason he helped Lukashenko to stop revolution in Belarus recently. The rest ("history" lectures, "NATO is encroaching", "Ukrainians are nazis and bombard Russian speakers in Ukraine") - it's just bullshit excuses. Don'r repeat them, please. You are helping an aggressive nationalist dictatorship murder people by accepting their excuses.

sampo 5y ago
Here's a 2022 The Atlantic article suggesting the same: https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/putin-ukraine-democracy/621465/ https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/putin-ukra... And a 2014 blog post also suggesting the same: https://skibinsky.com/no-russian/ https://skibinsky.com/no-russian/
ayngg 5y ago
I don't think it is either or, NATO is just a symbol for western alignment which reaches the same ends you describe. Beyond whatever foundational context, the three conflicts related the Ukraine and Georgia were precipitated by this (specifically most recently with the Brussels summit in 2021) which suggests it is a very definitive line in the sand, regardless of whether or not it is the actual reasoning. This is the third time the west has tested that line, it is the third time Russia has responded in this way, and it will most likely be the third time the West does nothing but implement sanctions because it isn't as important to them as it is to Russia. This isn't a justification for actions, it is about understanding the situation through the chaos.

watwut 5y ago

Putin said the Ukraine is not a real nation, so we can rest the whole nato nonsense.