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Like Russia cares. They have a growing, energy-hungering neighbor (China) buying their gas in the east, and a Europe committed to reduce their gas and oil usage

Like Russia cares. They have a growing, energy-hungering neighbor (China) buying their gas in the east, and a Europe committed to reduce their gas and oil usage in the next 10 years in the west.

tobylane 5y ago
Russia cares in the short and medium term, while their gas setup is nearer to and pointed towards Europe.
- mellavora 5y ago
  And in the short and medium turn, Europe cannot get to renewables. Re-doing an continent's energy grid takes time. Also, remember that many water heaters and house heating systems run on gas. Switching these to electric will also take time.
  - MattGaiser 5y ago
    One immediate action would be to cancel closing the nuclear plants.
  - ingenieros 5y ago
    Exactly, not to mention that Europe only has about 6 weeks worth of gas reserves according to German analysts. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/europe-winter-gas-reserves-russian-imports-german-analysis-ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/europe-winter-...
    - tpm 5y ago
      which is plenty because the winter is ending, so even without gas nobody should freeze. What would the industry do is other question.
    - runarberg 5y ago
      There have been energy crisis in the past and most people survived it, albeit with major inconveniences. I would say that is a small price to pay for peaceful resolution.
kalessin 5y ago
It is important to note that the gas exported to China and Europe are exported from different fields, and are not connected with each other. As it stands right now, Russia cannot export the gas it produces for Europe to China.
- Cthulhu_ 5y ago
  Yes it can, it just takes longer to put it in ships or trains. Transport by ship from where NordStream would leave the land to China is becoming feasible now that the north pole is melting, and Russia is really interested in that. A good, seemingly unbiased video on the subject is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvy9usF7ohE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvy9usF7ohE
  - koenneker 5y ago
    I don't know about the trains but looking at shipping: -Nordstream 2 has a capacity to transport 55 billion cubic meters per year[1] -The biggest LNG transport ship "Mozah" built by Samsung Heavy Industries can transport a equivalent of ~162 million cubic meters in a single load This leads to a ~339,5 full loads per year needed to replace the pipeline volume. Nordstream 2 probably wouldn't run at full capacity initially but even at 50% utilisation it would be nearly impossibe to replace it with shipping. [1]https://www.gazprom.com/projects/nord-stream2/ https://www.gazprom.com/projects/nord-stream2/ [2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mozah https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mozah
    - kkjjkgjjgg 5y ago
      They don't need to replace something that doesn't even exist?
      - wukerplank 5y ago
        Nord Stream 2 was finished last year, it just isn't used yet.
        5y ago
ed_balls 5y ago
They care deeply. China is >10x in pretty much everything. They don't to be a vassal state of China. Russia has lost the independence twice - threat from Asia and threat for united countries between Moscow and Berlin. I'd speculate the whole action is to force the West to a new deal with Russia, so they can balance China.
- darebak 5y ago
  >threat for united countries between Moscow and Berlin. Are you talking the PLC or the Nazis?
  - ed_balls 5y ago
    Polish-Russian War (1605–1618) and Unity Day.
- starfallg 5y ago
  >I'd speculate the whole action is to force the West to a new deal with Russia, so they can balance China. If they are serious about partnering with the west, they should have embraced reforms and become a member of NATO. The fact that they haven't is indicative of Putin's plan to counter the west. It's more likely they will partner with China just because Putin isn't thinking beyond that. He's 70 after all and they have no effective playbook against China (ala Foundation of Geopolitics against the west).
  - ed_balls 5y ago
    > they should have embraced reforms They tried that in the 90s. There are two problems. They don't want to be a colony for Western powers. Russia is a collection of a few different nations. You have to hold it by a strong hand, otherwise you have a civil war e.g. Chechnya. So they want to do it now on partner relations with Europe. Russia will provide, natural resources, transportation link to Asia, you can relocate polluting factories to Siberia, you get access to our market and labor. Also, you we will provide security and balance China. You don't need those pesky Americans. In return Russia wants, capital, tech and modernisation of the country. So Europeans, do you want EU from Lisbon to Vladivostok or war? trains and artic route.
zaarn 5y ago
China will just press Russia into servitude by demanding lower prices (who else they gonna sell to). It's still going to ruin Russia and maybe China then remembers some of the ethnical-chinese regions of Russia that Putin just set a convenient precedent for.
light_hue_1 5y ago
Russia cares a lot about who its sells its energy to. China is a far worse trade partner than Europe. Europe is easy to bully, it doesn't have a single voice and its pretty predictable which parts will have competing interests. China is not. Russia will lose a lot of its independence if it becomes beholden to China. That would be a bad endgame. Europe is also beholden to public opinion that does not want increased energy prices. China doesn't care about that.
- MobiusHorizons 5y ago
  As a motivation that makes sense, but what alternative will Russia have? Do you think Russia is banking on Europe eventually lifting sanctions and purchasing gas again?
  - light_hue_1 5y ago
    It's not a matter of "again". Gas purchases are not on the table as far as sanctions go. It's the other way around. The EU is afraid that if they impose serious sanctions Russia will cut off the gas supply. This will hurt the EU far more than it hurts Russia in the short term.
    - gpderetta 5y ago
      Doesn't most of european gas run through Ukraine? Ukraine could use it as leverage .
      - light_hue_1 5y ago
        Ukraine's goal is not to antagonize Europe. There's on leverage in threatening your friends.
        gpderetta 5y ago
        It is certainly a last resort option, but on the face of existential threat, denying Russia a major source of income to finance the war is a legitimate goal. The major point of Nord Stream 2 was to remove this PoF.
Gwypaas 5y ago
May be a large market for Russia, but China is completely invested in renewables. Just look at their pledged energy pipeline. No sane country builds new energy infrastructure not firmly anchored in renewables today. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/average-annual-power-capacity-additions-in-china-in-the-announced-pledges-scenario-aps-2020-2060 https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/average-annua...
- nosianu 5y ago
  > China is completely invested in renewables > No sane country builds new energy infrastructure not firmly anchored in renewables today. Eh?? "China Is Planning to Build 43 New Coal-Fired Power Plants" https://time.com/6090732/china-coal-power-plants-emissions/ https://time.com/6090732/china-coal-power-plants-emissions/ "China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Vietnam plan to build more than 600 coal power units" https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/30/five-asian-countries-80-percent-new-coal-power-investment https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/30/five-asi... "COP26 aims to banish coal. Asia is building hundreds of power plants to burn it" https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/cop26-aims-banish-coal-asia-is-building-hundreds-power-plants-burn-it-2021-10-29/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/cop26-aims-banish-co... There only is "China pledges to stop building new coal energy plants abroad" -- the last word matters. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58647481 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58647481
kubav 5y ago
I doubt that China would pay the same price. They will use it to get discount.
- PedroBatista 5y ago
  They already have, Putin’s gas deals with China are ruinous for Russia, they even managed to sell it at a loss half the time. What a mastermind that guy is.

Like Russia cares. They have a growing, energy-hungering neighbor (China) buying their gas in the east, and a Europe committed to reduce their gas and oil usage in the next 10 years in the west.

tobylane 5y ago

Russia cares in the short and medium term, while their gas setup is nearer to and pointed towards Europe.

mellavora 5y ago
And in the short and medium turn, Europe cannot get to renewables. Re-doing an continent's energy grid takes time. Also, remember that many water heaters and house heating systems run on gas. Switching these to electric will also take time.
- MattGaiser 5y ago
  One immediate action would be to cancel closing the nuclear plants.
- ingenieros 5y ago
  Exactly, not to mention that Europe only has about 6 weeks worth of gas reserves according to German analysts. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/europe-winter-gas-reserves-russian-imports-german-analysis-ukraine https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/feb/23/europe-winter-...
  - tpm 5y ago
    which is plenty because the winter is ending, so even without gas nobody should freeze. What would the industry do is other question.
  - runarberg 5y ago
    There have been energy crisis in the past and most people survived it, albeit with major inconveniences. I would say that is a small price to pay for peaceful resolution.

kalessin 5y ago

It is important to note that the gas exported to China and Europe are exported from different fields, and are not connected with each other. As it stands right now, Russia cannot export the gas it produces for Europe to China.

Cthulhu_ 5y ago
Yes it can, it just takes longer to put it in ships or trains. Transport by ship from where NordStream would leave the land to China is becoming feasible now that the north pole is melting, and Russia is really interested in that. A good, seemingly unbiased video on the subject is https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvy9usF7ohE https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvy9usF7ohE
- koenneker 5y ago
  I don't know about the trains but looking at shipping: -Nordstream 2 has a capacity to transport 55 billion cubic meters per year[1] -The biggest LNG transport ship "Mozah" built by Samsung Heavy Industries can transport a equivalent of ~162 million cubic meters in a single load This leads to a ~339,5 full loads per year needed to replace the pipeline volume. Nordstream 2 probably wouldn't run at full capacity initially but even at 50% utilisation it would be nearly impossibe to replace it with shipping. [1]https://www.gazprom.com/projects/nord-stream2/ https://www.gazprom.com/projects/nord-stream2/ [2]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mozah https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mozah
  - kkjjkgjjgg 5y ago
    They don't need to replace something that doesn't even exist?
    - wukerplank 5y ago
      Nord Stream 2 was finished last year, it just isn't used yet.
      - 5y ago

ed_balls 5y ago

They care deeply. China is >10x in pretty much everything. They don't to be a vassal state of China. Russia has lost the independence twice - threat from Asia and threat for united countries between Moscow and Berlin. I'd speculate the whole action is to force the West to a new deal with Russia, so they can balance China.

darebak 5y ago
>threat for united countries between Moscow and Berlin. Are you talking the PLC or the Nazis?
- ed_balls 5y ago
  Polish-Russian War (1605–1618) and Unity Day.
starfallg 5y ago
>I'd speculate the whole action is to force the West to a new deal with Russia, so they can balance China. If they are serious about partnering with the west, they should have embraced reforms and become a member of NATO. The fact that they haven't is indicative of Putin's plan to counter the west. It's more likely they will partner with China just because Putin isn't thinking beyond that. He's 70 after all and they have no effective playbook against China (ala Foundation of Geopolitics against the west).
- ed_balls 5y ago
  > they should have embraced reforms They tried that in the 90s. There are two problems. They don't want to be a colony for Western powers. Russia is a collection of a few different nations. You have to hold it by a strong hand, otherwise you have a civil war e.g. Chechnya. So they want to do it now on partner relations with Europe. Russia will provide, natural resources, transportation link to Asia, you can relocate polluting factories to Siberia, you get access to our market and labor. Also, you we will provide security and balance China. You don't need those pesky Americans. In return Russia wants, capital, tech and modernisation of the country. So Europeans, do you want EU from Lisbon to Vladivostok or war? trains and artic route.

zaarn 5y ago

China will just press Russia into servitude by demanding lower prices (who else they gonna sell to). It's still going to ruin Russia and maybe China then remembers some of the ethnical-chinese regions of Russia that Putin just set a convenient precedent for.

light_hue_1 5y ago

Russia cares a lot about who its sells its energy to. China is a far worse trade partner than Europe. Europe is easy to bully, it doesn't have a single voice and its pretty predictable which parts will have competing interests. China is not. Russia will lose a lot of its independence if it becomes beholden to China. That would be a bad endgame. Europe is also beholden to public opinion that does not want increased energy prices. China doesn't care about that.

MobiusHorizons 5y ago
As a motivation that makes sense, but what alternative will Russia have? Do you think Russia is banking on Europe eventually lifting sanctions and purchasing gas again?
- light_hue_1 5y ago
  It's not a matter of "again". Gas purchases are not on the table as far as sanctions go. It's the other way around. The EU is afraid that if they impose serious sanctions Russia will cut off the gas supply. This will hurt the EU far more than it hurts Russia in the short term.
  - gpderetta 5y ago
    Doesn't most of european gas run through Ukraine? Ukraine could use it as leverage .
    - light_hue_1 5y ago
      Ukraine's goal is not to antagonize Europe. There's on leverage in threatening your friends.
      - gpderetta 5y ago
        It is certainly a last resort option, but on the face of existential threat, denying Russia a major source of income to finance the war is a legitimate goal. The major point of Nord Stream 2 was to remove this PoF.

Gwypaas 5y ago

May be a large market for Russia, but China is completely invested in renewables. Just look at their pledged energy pipeline. No sane country builds new energy infrastructure not firmly anchored in renewables today. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/average-annual-power-capacity-additions-in-china-in-the-announced-pledges-scenario-aps-2020-2060 https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/average-annua...

nosianu 5y ago
> China is completely invested in renewables > No sane country builds new energy infrastructure not firmly anchored in renewables today. Eh?? "China Is Planning to Build 43 New Coal-Fired Power Plants" https://time.com/6090732/china-coal-power-plants-emissions/ https://time.com/6090732/china-coal-power-plants-emissions/ "China, India, Indonesia, Japan and Vietnam plan to build more than 600 coal power units" https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/30/five-asian-countries-80-percent-new-coal-power-investment https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/jun/30/five-asi... "COP26 aims to banish coal. Asia is building hundreds of power plants to burn it" https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/cop26-aims-banish-coal-asia-is-building-hundreds-power-plants-burn-it-2021-10-29/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/cop26-aims-banish-co... There only is "China pledges to stop building new coal energy plants abroad" -- the last word matters. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58647481 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-58647481

kubav 5y ago

I doubt that China would pay the same price. They will use it to get discount.

PedroBatista 5y ago
They already have, Putin’s gas deals with China are ruinous for Russia, they even managed to sell it at a loss half the time. What a mastermind that guy is.