> Ukraine currently leases the rights to Russia, but the threat of Ukraine joining the EU could largely change those economics. I have tow big issues with this

> Ukraine currently leases the rights to Russia, but the threat of Ukraine joining the EU could largely change those economics. I have tow big issues with this argument. Firstly, an inevitable consequence of invading Ukraine is sactions that will disrupt oil and gas exports. This is Russia's biggest export. Second, if Ukraine joins the EU (which is a big if), I haven't seen a compelling argument why this would hurt Russia's interests. Most notably, as an EU member,U Ukraine would lose a certain amount of autonomy to negotiate thing slike this. Do you think Ukraine as a future EU member could effectively cut off the gas supply to other EU members? I just don't see how that could happen. It's possible that the EU's reliance on Russian oil and gas exports will weaken their resolve. I guess we'll see.