4 ms·
> Like what is the upside here (for Putin)? 60% of russias export is energy by way of natural gas, to Europe, across two pipelines, belerus, and ukraine. Ukra
by balls187 5y ago
> Like what is the upside here (for Putin)?
60% of russias export is energy by way of natural gas, to Europe, across two pipelines, belerus, and ukraine.
Ukraine currently leases the rights to Russia, but the threat of Ukraine joining the EU could largely change those economics.
Putin could be banking on the fact that since Russia is the large supplier of natural gas to Europe, the west will have no choice but to continue to purchase from Russia.
Currently the US is backstopping Western Europe with Liquid Natural Gas, but it's possible that Western Europe will feel additional energy crunch and have to break away from US Sanctions.
- jmyeet 5y ago> Ukraine currently leases the rights to Russia, but the threat of Ukraine joining the EU could largely change those economics. I have tow big issues with this argument. Firstly, an inevitable consequence of invading Ukraine is sactions that will disrupt oil and gas exports. This is Russia's biggest export. Second, if Ukraine joins the EU (which is a big if), I haven't seen a compelling argument why this would hurt Russia's interests. Most notably, as an EU member,U Ukraine would lose a certain amount of autonomy to negotiate thing slike this. Do you think Ukraine as a future EU member could effectively cut off the gas supply to other EU members? I just don't see how that could happen. It's possible that the EU's reliance on Russian oil and gas exports will weaken their resolve. I guess we'll see.