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From the perspective of someone completely naive to the situation: what's going on, and WHY is this happening? I partially ask "why?!" plaintively, because thi

From the perspective of someone completely naive to the situation: what's going on, and WHY is this happening? I partially ask "why?!" plaintively, because this is senseless. But I do also want to understand the... rationalization ("logic" is the wrong word) behind this action so I can be better informed, and I guess form some predictions about what might happen next, and maybe even get an idea about when this might end (?) :( To be clear, I already don't agree with what's going on, this is not how to solve disputes and disagreements (especially when the attacker has nuclear capability). I'm just looking for facts and positions on the countries involved here - something something editorialization and signal-to-noise ratio. The one mildly good thing I can think of right now is that the general commoditization of technology (TV, radio, phone, internet) hopefully means lot of people are aware of what's going on and, also hopefully, able to take decisive action and even collaborate and work together. Hopefully Ukraine prioritizes reinforcing the cell network :/. And if this is all-out war then hopefully extraordinary maneuvers are acceptable and supported to help innocent people stay far away from the line of fire. This doesn't feel like when the US occupied Afghanistan :(

cottager2 5y ago
Russia doesn’t want its sphere of influence to decrease. Ukraine has wanted to detach from Russia for a long while. Russia has responded with assassinations, destabilization by supporting rebels, propaganda, and now a full blown military invasion. This is about power. Your question is like asking why the Roman Empire expanded. Because they wanted to and they could.
dragonwriter 5y ago
> I partially ask "why?!" plaintively, because this is senseless Neither imperialist conquest nor the manufacturing of external crisis and conflict as an attempt to rally domestic support behind a leader are senseless; they both have internal logic and a whole lot of historic precedent of usefulness to the faction pursuing them.
smsm42 5y ago
"Why" is simple. Putin wants Ukraine, and he thinks the West is too weak, divided and dependent on Russian resources to do anything substantial about it.
- WoahNoun 5y ago
  Also nukes
AnimalMuppet 5y ago
Russia isn't doing as well as Europe economically. Ukraine sees its future with the West, and democracy. Putin can't stand a culturally-near democracy next door, one that rejects him and wants Europe instead. I don't think it's so much that it wounds his pride. It's more that it shows Russians an alternate path, and he's terrified that they might choose it (and reject him). And I speculate that he might have genuine fears for his life if he's removed from power. Some of the oligarchs are not nice people, and they have lots of power and long memories. All the rest is just BS rationalizations designed to provide the flimsiest attempt at a justification for what he's decided to do to stay in power. (Anyone else notice that the way he provides "historic justifications" for what he's doing sounds a lot like the way Hitler gave historical smokescreens for why he had to attack Russia?) When's it going to end? When Putin decides it's enough. Either that he's taken enough territory (which may be all), or he's forced the fall of the government in Ukraine and installed a puppet that will turn them toward Russia, or he's taken too many casualties, or the economic sanctions are biting too hard.
pseudo0 5y ago
Professor Mearsheimer at the University of Chicago has done the best analysis I have seen. Available in either written or lecture format: https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-the-Ukraine-Crisis-Is.pdf https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-t... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4
- disambiguation 5y ago
  Watching this now, it's very good. I had forgotten because it was so long ago, but the tl;dr is Feb 22nd 2014.
kstenerud 5y ago
The "why" is a complicated question that goes to the core character of the nations involved. Russia by nature feels insecure about her borders, and always has. There's a long history of invasion that has left a trauma to this day. The one thing that Russia fears more than anything else is encirclement. To this end they have over the centuries embarked on numerous territorial expansions and treaties to create buffer zones between themselves and potential enemies, the most recent of which was the USSR (which proved too costly to maintain). When the Russians couldn't keep their "union" going, they entered into negotiations with Western powers about what would happen with these now-free states. This is where things get a little murky, because the Russians insist that they'd received assurances that NATO would not expand into former Soviet states, whereas the West emphatically maintains that no such assurances were given. The higher ups in the Kremlin firmly believe that the West broke its word, and is thus untrustworthy. As NATO expanded further and further Eastward, Russia's insecurities intensified, and the Ukraine was considered to be the last bastion of resistance to encirclement. This is why Russia has spent the past decade meddling in Ukrainian affairs, and why they've stepped up meddling in American politics (Trump is an isolationist and nationalist, which is why Russia favored him). As to what triggered this latest move, that's anyone's guess. Maybe they got some intel that the Ukraine really was going to gain full NATO membership. Maybe not, and they just got a little too worried about it... We'll probably never know. But either way, this current invasion is a drastic effort to keep the Ukraine out of any military alliances with the West.
yet_another 5y ago
to answer "Why?!" especially with the exclamantion point. I am shocked that so many people do not understand, that the words "Minsk Agreements" are rarely mentioned, and that it's only been 8 years and yet the world has no idea. Also that no one compares to Yugoslavia's or Czechoslovakia's post-Soviet split into multiple countries. READ: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donbas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donbas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements In 2014, Prime Minister of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, led his government to reject a deal to put Ukraine on a path to EU and NATO membership. This immediately let to the Euromaiden protests, the Ukrainian Revolution, and attacks on ethnic Russians within Ukraine. leading to the divisions internally between the Donbas region and the rest of the country. Crimea, which was part of Ukraine but ethnically Russian, was taken by Russia at this time. Look on a map for Crimea and the Sea of Azov, and you will see why this was so easy to accomplish. The parties within Ukraine agreed to stop fighting and the resolution was the Minsk Protocol. The Minsk Agreements were immediately violated by both sides. Both sides were brought back to the table to draft another cease-fire agreement, known as Minsk 2. The second Minsk Accords were also immediately violated and people have been dying in that area ever since. The real question is: Why did the UN never move to stop these killings? Why is the West focused on Russia instead of the problem that has been at their doorstep for literally eight years now. People in Eastern Ukraine have been dying every month for eight years. The opportunity for diplomacy has been rotting on the vine for eight years. The borders of Ukraine were created during Soviet times by the U.S.S.R., not by the people of Ukraine. The Post-Soviet countries of Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia similarly suffered from borders that forced people who speak different languages and come from different cultures to live together. Yugoslavia fought a bloody and costly internal war over this before separating into multiple countries. Czechoslovakia fared somewhat better before it split into multiple countries. Ukraine is now splitting into multiple countries. The UN for eight years did nothing to enforce the Minsk Accords to stop the fighting and allow that to happen peacefully, so Russia decided enough is enough.
- smsm42 5y ago
  Modern war is waged on many fronts. Internet is one of them. Here we are witnessing it. Less deadly than Putin's bombs and rockets, but adds poison of lies to the info-sphere, in hopes to cause people to show weakness when confronted with evil. Ukraine is not "splitting" into anything. It's being murdered. By Putin and Putin's Russia.

cottager2 5y ago

Russia doesn’t want its sphere of influence to decrease. Ukraine has wanted to detach from Russia for a long while. Russia has responded with assassinations, destabilization by supporting rebels, propaganda, and now a full blown military invasion. This is about power. Your question is like asking why the Roman Empire expanded. Because they wanted to and they could.

dragonwriter 5y ago

> I partially ask "why?!" plaintively, because this is senseless Neither imperialist conquest nor the manufacturing of external crisis and conflict as an attempt to rally domestic support behind a leader are senseless; they both have internal logic and a whole lot of historic precedent of usefulness to the faction pursuing them.

smsm42 5y ago

"Why" is simple. Putin wants Ukraine, and he thinks the West is too weak, divided and dependent on Russian resources to do anything substantial about it.

WoahNoun 5y ago
Also nukes

AnimalMuppet 5y ago

Russia isn't doing as well as Europe economically. Ukraine sees its future with the West, and democracy. Putin can't stand a culturally-near democracy next door, one that rejects him and wants Europe instead. I don't think it's so much that it wounds his pride. It's more that it shows Russians an alternate path, and he's terrified that they might choose it (and reject him). And I speculate that he might have genuine fears for his life if he's removed from power. Some of the oligarchs are not nice people, and they have lots of power and long memories. All the rest is just BS rationalizations designed to provide the flimsiest attempt at a justification for what he's decided to do to stay in power. (Anyone else notice that the way he provides "historic justifications" for what he's doing sounds a lot like the way Hitler gave historical smokescreens for why he had to attack Russia?) When's it going to end? When Putin decides it's enough. Either that he's taken enough territory (which may be all), or he's forced the fall of the government in Ukraine and installed a puppet that will turn them toward Russia, or he's taken too many casualties, or the economic sanctions are biting too hard.

pseudo0 5y ago

Professor Mearsheimer at the University of Chicago has done the best analysis I have seen. Available in either written or lecture format: https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-the-Ukraine-Crisis-Is.pdf https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Why-t... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JrMiSQAGOS4

disambiguation 5y ago
Watching this now, it's very good. I had forgotten because it was so long ago, but the tl;dr is Feb 22nd 2014.

kstenerud 5y ago

The "why" is a complicated question that goes to the core character of the nations involved. Russia by nature feels insecure about her borders, and always has. There's a long history of invasion that has left a trauma to this day. The one thing that Russia fears more than anything else is encirclement. To this end they have over the centuries embarked on numerous territorial expansions and treaties to create buffer zones between themselves and potential enemies, the most recent of which was the USSR (which proved too costly to maintain). When the Russians couldn't keep their "union" going, they entered into negotiations with Western powers about what would happen with these now-free states. This is where things get a little murky, because the Russians insist that they'd received assurances that NATO would not expand into former Soviet states, whereas the West emphatically maintains that no such assurances were given. The higher ups in the Kremlin firmly believe that the West broke its word, and is thus untrustworthy. As NATO expanded further and further Eastward, Russia's insecurities intensified, and the Ukraine was considered to be the last bastion of resistance to encirclement. This is why Russia has spent the past decade meddling in Ukrainian affairs, and why they've stepped up meddling in American politics (Trump is an isolationist and nationalist, which is why Russia favored him). As to what triggered this latest move, that's anyone's guess. Maybe they got some intel that the Ukraine really was going to gain full NATO membership. Maybe not, and they just got a little too worried about it... We'll probably never know. But either way, this current invasion is a drastic effort to keep the Ukraine out of any military alliances with the West.

yet_another 5y ago

to answer "Why?!" especially with the exclamantion point. I am shocked that so many people do not understand, that the words "Minsk Agreements" are rarely mentioned, and that it's only been 8 years and yet the world has no idea. Also that no one compares to Yugoslavia's or Czechoslovakia's post-Soviet split into multiple countries. READ: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donbas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donbas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euromaidan https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viktor_Yanukovych https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_agreements In 2014, Prime Minister of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, led his government to reject a deal to put Ukraine on a path to EU and NATO membership. This immediately let to the Euromaiden protests, the Ukrainian Revolution, and attacks on ethnic Russians within Ukraine. leading to the divisions internally between the Donbas region and the rest of the country. Crimea, which was part of Ukraine but ethnically Russian, was taken by Russia at this time. Look on a map for Crimea and the Sea of Azov, and you will see why this was so easy to accomplish. The parties within Ukraine agreed to stop fighting and the resolution was the Minsk Protocol. The Minsk Agreements were immediately violated by both sides. Both sides were brought back to the table to draft another cease-fire agreement, known as Minsk 2. The second Minsk Accords were also immediately violated and people have been dying in that area ever since. The real question is: Why did the UN never move to stop these killings? Why is the West focused on Russia instead of the problem that has been at their doorstep for literally eight years now. People in Eastern Ukraine have been dying every month for eight years. The opportunity for diplomacy has been rotting on the vine for eight years. The borders of Ukraine were created during Soviet times by the U.S.S.R., not by the people of Ukraine. The Post-Soviet countries of Yugoslavia and Czechoslovakia similarly suffered from borders that forced people who speak different languages and come from different cultures to live together. Yugoslavia fought a bloody and costly internal war over this before separating into multiple countries. Czechoslovakia fared somewhat better before it split into multiple countries. Ukraine is now splitting into multiple countries. The UN for eight years did nothing to enforce the Minsk Accords to stop the fighting and allow that to happen peacefully, so Russia decided enough is enough.

smsm42 5y ago
Modern war is waged on many fronts. Internet is one of them. Here we are witnessing it. Less deadly than Putin's bombs and rockets, but adds poison of lies to the info-sphere, in hopes to cause people to show weakness when confronted with evil. Ukraine is not "splitting" into anything. It's being murdered. By Putin and Putin's Russia.