4 ms·
The Metaculus betting market for "Russian Troops in Kyiv in 2022" has spiked to 85% within the past hour: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troop
by georgewsinger 5y ago
The Metaculus betting market for "Russian Troops in Kyiv in 2022" has spiked to 85% within the past hour: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-k...
- trzy 5y agoShows how useless the prediction markets are if they’re integrating information this late.
- csee 5y agoWell, there was a question mark as to whether the invasion will just be limited to Donbas.
- trzy 5y agoAgreed but the Russians have known for a long time what they’re planning. The betting market is now looking backwards.
- csee 5y agoI agree, but the real plans are probably kept to a very small inner circle who are expected not to go around betting with that knowledge. It's why the stock market has been slow to react, too.
- tomjen3 5y agoI haven't really cared about them since they predicted a huge win for Hillary, right up on the night of the election.
- avionical 5y agoOne of the very first questions the site ran. It's a totally different platform and community in 2022.
- avionical 5y agoThe platform indicated an invasion before other prediction markets and before the vast majority of commentators. It's not just now coming around.