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Explosions in Kiev and Kharkiv now [CNN]
- georgewsinger 5y agoThe Metaculus betting market for "Russian Troops in Kyiv in 2022" has spiked to 85% within the past hour: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-kiev-in-2022/ https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9459/russian-troops-in-k...
- trzy 5y agoShows how useless the prediction markets are if they’re integrating information this late.
- csee 5y agoWell, there was a question mark as to whether the invasion will just be limited to Donbas.
- trzy 5y agoAgreed but the Russians have known for a long time what they’re planning. The betting market is now looking backwards.
- csee 5y agoI agree, but the real plans are probably kept to a very small inner circle who are expected not to go around betting with that knowledge. It's why the stock market has been slow to react, too.
- tomjen3 5y agoI haven't really cared about them since they predicted a huge win for Hillary, right up on the night of the election.
- avionical 5y agoOne of the very first questions the site ran. It's a totally different platform and community in 2022.
- avionical 5y agoThe platform indicated an invasion before other prediction markets and before the vast majority of commentators. It's not just now coming around.
- atlasunshrugged 5y agoCrossposting from other active thread (https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30449831 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=30449831): This is an unmitigated tragedy. There are reports of explosions even in the capital, Kyiv. I used to work in the region and Ukrainians are some of the brightest, hardest working, and passionate people (at least when it comes to advocating for democracy from the people I met in Kyiv) I've gotten to know. A freelance correspondent on twitter I follow posted a thread on charities to donate to for those so inclined (disclosure, I haven't done due diligence on them): https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1496486993848643584 https://twitter.com/olgatokariuk/status/1496486993848643584
- youkraine 5y ago
- warner_of_doom 5y agoHow dare you tell us that the situation is more complicated than "American-style Democracy" vs "Evil Tyranny"?!
- youkraine 5y agoBy the way, in case someone doesn't know the significance of that symbol, they can read this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sun_(symbol) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sun_(symbol)
- tablespoon 5y agohttps://www.thedailybeast.com/wagners-rusich-neo-nazi-attack-unit-hints-its-going-back-into-ukraine-undercover https://www.thedailybeast.com/wagners-rusich-neo-nazi-attack... > Neo-Nazi Russian Attack Unit Hints It’s Going Back Into Ukraine Undercover https://en.respublica.lt/signs-of-neo-nazi-ideology-amongst-russian-mercenaries https://en.respublica.lt/signs-of-neo-nazi-ideology-amongst-... > Signs of Neo-Nazi Ideology Amongst Russian Mercenaries
- 5y ago
- sega_sai 5y agoThis is such a tragedy. Two close countries with shared histories are being put to war and many innocents will die because of a crazed maniac who has been sitting on his chair for 20 years and who has delusions of grandeur.
- atlgator 5y agoIt's about controlling the supply of oil and gas to Europe. Putin didn't get his pipeline. This is the unfortunate alternative.
- csee 5y agoNo. He was about to get Nord Stream 2 through, which doens't run through Ukraine, and now he got it shut down.
- Evgenii1 5y agoTemporary pause in licensing from Germany not 'shut down'. Germany has no choice but to buy Russian gas where else are they going to get energy from to run their huge GDP country
- hilbertseries 5y agoGas makes up 10 percent of energy usage. More of a concern for heating and industries requiring it. But they can start investing in retrofitting and other sources now.
- jdkee 5y agoToo bad Germany decided to shut down its nuclear plants. See https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-25/what-the-u-s-can-learn-from-germany-s-nuclear-power-plant-shutdowns https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-01-25/what-t...
- 5y ago
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 5y agoHm, where did that other thread go?
- Evgenii1 5y agoBecame too partisan/political People forget this is not twitter Anyway Ukraine will be broke for a long time after this, there's no jobs during a war except fighting we can help there is tons of developers there who will be jobless probably tomorrow
- atlasunshrugged 5y ago+1 Ukraine was already hemorrhaging money because of decreased flights, decreased FDI, investments being pulled out, higher borrowing costs and now the economy is going to be crushed. Finding ways to hire Ukrainians or otherwise invest in the country is probably a pretty meaningful thing to do in the near term
- warner_of_doom 5y agoRussia and America turned Ukraine into a "if we can't have, burn it to the ground" situation. I am for keeping Ukraine as a neutral buffer separating Russia and the US. NATO proposed Ukrainian and Georgian membership of NATO in 2005-2008, in the clear knowledge that this would destabilize the situation. France, Germany, and others were against this. The proposal began the issue. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJBQikfYyKs https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SJBQikfYyKs We then openly backed the 2014 putsch in Kiev, an open act of aggression just as irresponsible as a military incursion. CIA John Brennan, Senator John McCain, and Diplomat Victoria Nuland were there in Ukraine when Yanukovych was being overthrown. There is also evidence to show that we were involved through NGOs in overthrowing and promoting an atmosphere desiring the overthrow of Yanukovych.
- 2OEH8eoCRo0 5y ago> I am for keeping Ukraine as a neutral buffer separating Russia and the US. What does Ukraine want?
- rswail 5y agoAs a customer of thingsboard.io I am worried for the people we've worked with there. They are good people and don't deserve this in any way.
- perihelions 5y agoHere's a wide view livestream over Kharkiv, retweeted by Jeffrey Lewis (for your "is this credible?" filter), https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7ZbVufqW3s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7ZbVufqW3s https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/1496692896216457222 https://twitter.com/ArmsControlWonk/status/14966928962164572... edit: Also verified by the NYT -- their screenshot looks identical to the video source above: >"The Times’s Visual Investigations team verified the location of the explosions, which were captured on a webcam just outside Kharkhiv." https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/23/world/russia-ukraine https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/02/23/world/russia-ukraine
- ortusdux 5y agoBots are spamming the live steam chat with slurs in an attempt to get it taken down.
- pmoriarty 5y agoFor weeks now we've been hearing from Moscow that Russian troops massing around Ukraine were just conducting a military exercise, that there were no plans to invade, and that any reports to the contrary were mere propaganda and hysteria. What a coincidence that Russia's biggest deployment of troops since the Cold War just happened to come immediately before an actual invasion of Ukraine. Now where are all those who kept claiming this was just an exercise and not a preparation for an invasion?
- AnimalMuppet 5y agoYou missed a step. What a coincidence that Russia's biggest deployment of troops since the Cold War just happened to come immediately before the Russia-controlled-but-not-admitted occupied sections of Ukraine asked for military help. And what a coincidence that all those troops just happened to be perfectly situated to jump into action in response to the request.
- deleted 5y ago[deleted]
- Evgenii1 5y agoLet's be honest about Ukraine. Nobody cared when Russia put military there last year. Then after Afghanistan disaster in the summer he doubled the amount of military, and still nothing happened in response. It's a highly corrupt country where opposition is in prison, and various foreign leaders launder money there. There is no appetite for investing in Ukraine, meaning multi-billions into real air defences and training military to use it instead we gave some pocket change and wished them the best while using their banks and oil companies as personal ATM.
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- warner_of_doom 5y agoMeanwhile, once again, soon after the Iraq debacle: here we are getting dragged into another "war for democracy".
- noirchen 5y agoBiden said that US is not going to war, but in fact there are many ways to slow down the Russians. You could have a voluntary army from western countries geared with weapons and supplies, like during the Spanish civil war in 1936 or eastern Ukraine since 2014. This will probably not save eastern Ukraine, but better than doing nothing.
- warner_of_doom 5y agoOr, this could turn Ukraine into another Syria.
- ortusdux 5y agoOne Russian independent new group is claiming that the metadata for Putin's latest justification speech shows that it was recorded 2 days ago. https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1496705752114900993 https://twitter.com/JenGriffinFNC/status/1496705752114900993
- ghostwriter 5y agoIt's similar to all news media where alternative news stories are prepared beforehand and are kept hidden until one of them gets published as soon as possible when events unravel.
- zzleeper 5y agoNews like these are huge enough to feature on HN, but at the same time I understand why PG always tried to mitigate this. Here you have a lot of people who are most likely technically smart in their fields, but a substantial fraction of the comments seem completely detached. > atlgator says this is b/c Putin didn't get his gas pipeline, completely reversing the causality of why the pipeline was put on hold yesterday. > warner_of_doom suggesting us to go read why this is more than Putin and to go into the Chomsky et al hole of crazyness. > ComradePhil making this about why CNN is a propaganda war machine so we should watch Chomsky again Etc.
- warner_of_doom 5y agoAs I have said, Chomsky is an ideologue. But, I listen to his views nonetheless. If you prefer, you can read some of the more anti-Russia scholars I cited, like Peter Zeihand: https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/status/1495884492480913409/photo/1 https://twitter.com/PeterZeihan/status/1495884492480913409/p...