A lot of discussion is that Ukraine is going to lose its head too. It is getting louder that Russia is going after Kyiv. One option is that Ukraine make it expe

A lot of discussion is that Ukraine is going to lose its head too. It is getting louder that Russia is going after Kyiv. One option is that Ukraine make it expensive for Russia in terms of man and material with the flood of anti-tank equipment causing some internal strife for Putin. I agree that this isn't going to stop the direction being taken. It just makes it a bit more expensive. As you've mentioned, I don't see NATO or Europe taking direct risks for Ukraine. But I expect that once Russia invades Ukraine proper and takes Kyiv, US and European sanctions will be the most severe we've seen. Russia has done a lot to prepare for this with limiting export dependency to just what the West needs (energy) and holding a lot of foreign currency. I will be interested to see what the UK does as they have been highly enriched by Putin's henchmen and acting as a playground for oligarchs. Ukraine has been bumbling along since the Soviet Union collapsed and is in no position to do anything about it. There isn't enough pain to inflict on Russia to stop it from taking what it wants (which I believe is a infantile and subservient Ukraine). Immediately after the Soviet Union collapsed likely would have been a better time to prepare. The countries that took the reemergence of an aggressive Russia seriously right after the cold war have mostly fared better with stronger economies and ties to Europe to protect themselves. Even if all went well it would still be a very difficult challenge for Ukraine to get out of the sphere of Russia. This is state craft so I wouldn't think along the lines of this year or this decade. I would look out decades to try and see where this is all going. I don't believe that Ukraine will be an EU or NATO member as long as Russia has its current military and economic capabilities. I speculate that Ukraine will be a vassal state for the rest of my lifetime. I would have to see some major fractures in the Russian political position and its economic and military capabilities for my opinion to change. Maybe post Putin the politics changes, I'm not clear on succession planning here. Maybe oil and gas prices go way down and Russia can't field an aggressive military. But I can't see anyone take back Ukraine once Russia invades and changes the political course in Ukraine.