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I finally read up on these regions, and know that I'm not done given that all sources are questionable and no consensus has been reached. But I do understand t

I finally read up on these regions, and know that I'm not done given that all sources are questionable and no consensus has been reached. But I do understand that Donetsk and Luhansk both have petitioned for more autonomy in an amended Ukranian constitution (that would give all administrative-districts more autonomy). This has failed but apparently Ukraine is in the process of becoming more decentralized with their own constitutional amendments, pursuing a concept of Federalism/Confederacy similar to Switzerland, which Donetsk and Luhansk would benefit from but that idea of satisfying those districts has long passed, now that they handle their own affairs and also receive Russian passports now. So because the desired constitution has failed, when that chance for diplomacy was available, and they already receive Russian passports, what exactly is the goal here? Are they supposed to be on the map as their own countries? Are there two new countries on the map? Is there an accession to Russia? I get Putin's words look more like a piecemeal approach of chopping territory back from Ukraine, until it and all former soviet states are simply Russian states. But I think most of that is just grandstanding to sound cool to his own people. I also think any opportunity of affinity towards Russia will be seized upon, especially when there is a direct border. I'm purposely avoiding the discrimination against Ukrainian-speaking people and actions against dissidents, given the area is reported as being lawless for some time now. And focusing on the geopolitical element. So with that in mind, what does recognition as independent even mean? They get Russian passports and citizenship and freedom of movement and work in Russia already. Are they simply saying that civil and criminal justice can't be appealed to either Ukraine or Russian higher courts? Going to go with the autonomous region concept until a future referendum of accession into Russia? I can't get an answer from my Ukrainian friends either, "its just hybrid war, American news making it bigger than it is, Biden making misinformation". I watched Putin's speech, but okay, maybe my translation was wrong, seems like denial to say Biden is just making a big deal though, but I guess I too wouldn't care about a border region full of people that aren't interested in my country's values. This last point seems to be what another comment from someone transplanted to Ukraine is saying.

yakshaving_jgt 5y ago
> Are there two new countries on the map? It depends who's map you're looking at. > I'm purposely avoiding the discrimination against Ukrainian-speaking people Bear in mind that it's not as simple as discriminating between those who speak Ukrainian and those who speak Russian. A significant proportion of the Ukrainian population speak Russian primarily, but otherwise have no political affinity for Russia. > Going to go with the autonomous region concept until a future referendum of accession into Russia? This is most likely it, though it could further escalate into an even more egregious invasion, which would trigger a military response from Ukraine, which would then give Russia the casus belli they are looking for.
- jcranmer 5y ago
  > A significant proportion of the Ukrainian population speak Russian primarily, but otherwise have no political affinity for Russia. The best counterpoint for most westerners to understand is this: most Irish people speak English as their primary, if not only, language. Yet English-speaking Irishmen were (and still are) vehemently against being part of the UK.
  - mistrial9 5y ago
    thank you for including examples of people - on both sides of that conflict - who will not stop fighting their neighbors, no matter what the century. We used to say long ago, "what is so funny about peace, love and understanding?"
  - p1esk 5y ago
    Not the same. My understanding is Ireland has always been culturally separate from England, and as you said, wanted to be politically separate for many centuries. Ukraine is a very young independent state, with its borders changing significantly throughout the last 100 years, but for the most part it was happy to be part of Russia/USSR until the USSR collapse. I'd even say Ukraine is probably more like California, (or Texas) in relation to US, rather than Ireland in relation to GB. And just like I wouldn't mind if California separated from US, I don't mind Ukraine being separate from Russia, but the cultural ties are probably similar to the ties between CA and the rest of US.
    - ncmncm 5y ago
      The definitive relationship between Ukraine and Russia was established when Russia very deliberately arranged to starve 2 million Ukrainians to death by the expedient of driving in and stealing literally every bit of agricultural product they could get their hands on, and killing anybody in their way. Many thousands fled where they could to places with difficulties of their own, often also of Soviet origin. Shortly after, Germans rolled in and devastated the country. Then, the Russians came back through, treating everyone still alive as a Nazi collaborator (because "how could they still be alive, if not?"). Ukrainians who had been drafted by the Nazis and forced to serve as cannon fodder, but survived, were shot or deported to the GULag as traitors (because "how could they still be alive, if not?"). Ukrainians do not think of themselves as Russian even so much as Irishmen consider themselves English.
iskander 5y ago
Every country has regions with distinct cultural and linguistic identities. It often takes an outside power to enable them to split away. Like with Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transnistria, &c the central actor is Russia, not the regions themselves.
- adolph 5y ago
  A counterpoint might be: The Dissolution of Czechoslovakia (Czech: Rozdělení Československa, Slovak: Rozdelenie Česko-Slovenska) took effect on January 1, 1993, and was the self-determined split of the federal republic of Czechoslovakia into the independent countries of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Both mirrored the Czech Socialist Republic and the Slovak Socialist Republic, which had been created in 1969 as the constituent states of the Czechoslovak Federal Republic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_Czechoslovakia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_Czechoslovakia Edit: Also Catalonia: The Catalan independence movement (Catalan: independentisme català;[a] Spanish: independentismo catalán) is a social and political movement (with roots in Catalan nationalism) which seeks the independence of Catalonia from Spain, along with in the movement supporting the independence of Northern Catalonia from France, and Alghero from Italy (among other Catalan-speaking areas, referred to as the Catalan Countries). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence_movement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence_movement Also Euskara: The Basque conflict, also known as the Spain–ETA conflict, was an armed and political conflict from 1959 to 2011 between Spain and the Basque National Liberation Movement, a group of social and political Basque organizations which sought independence from Spain and France. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basque_conflict https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basque_conflict
  - iskander 5y ago
    There are a few counter-examples and Czechoslovakia is definitely one of them. The Catalan and Basque independence movements, however, have been successfully contained by Spain. They lacked external support and could not compete with the strength of state suppression. If a neighbor ever chooses to get involved we might see independent Basque and Catalan countries.
ed_balls 5y ago
> I watched Putin's speech I've seen it as well. My guess is that Covid made a huge dent (Low gas prices and economic problems). Putin has to direct this anger somewhere. This is the swan song of the Russian state. People living in the Soviet sphere see how other countries are developing. Ukraine had a higher GDP per capita than Poland - now it's 4x lower. It's true for every single place from Kaliningrad, Caucasus to Vladivostok. They are worse off than their neighbours for purely political reasons. Only thing that holds everything together is the authoritarian regime with strong military and natural resources. The problem is the world will become less dependent on fossil fuels and mining in Siberia is more expensive than pretty much everywhere. Russia won't be able to pay for the army. This is an existential threat to the Russian state. My prediction is that around 2030 there will a civil war, 2nd Chechnya.
- ncmncm 5y ago
  Yes, this is an indication of Putin's weakness. Putin desperately had to be seen, in Russia, as doing something that seemed to indicate strength, in order to be able to retain power. Facing off against NATO, and getting them to offer him concessions, served that purpose. Invading another country served that purpose. Holding bits of Ukraine, and the fates of people in them, are very much incidental. The concessions were not necessary, but the offers of concessions were all-important.
- ohwellish 5y ago
  it's not about covid or money - its about Ukraine becoming stronger, more independent than ever from russian influence as old corrupt politicians are getting off their political power so he no longer have a leverage over Ukrainian government the way he used to have its about the choice Ukranian ppl made in 2014 and strong independent Ukraine is a direct threat to russian kleptocracy as russain ppl might have ideas they could make this push too
- throwawayay02 5y ago
  Energy prices are near all time highs, Russia's finances should be great.
  - 5y ago
int_19h 5y ago
Putin literally wrote an essay on how he sees Ukraine: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181 It's agitprop, of course. But it's agitprop for both external and internal consumption, and the latter parts are very telling.
- throwawayay02 5y ago
  That's a quite good read. I'd like an annotated version with fact checking and commentary.
  - int_19h 5y ago
    There's also yesterday's TV address, which is in a similar vein, but more aggressive: https://tass.ru/politika/13791435 https://tass.ru/politika/13791435 An annotated version would be interesting. TL;DR is that it's a mix of truths, omissions, and lies. He's not wrong that some of the modern borders of Ukraine are a Soviet creation, for example, but completely ignores the fact that it was already in the process of establishing itself as an independent country before the Bolsheviks (as the Ukrainian People's Republic). Speaking more broadly, one needs to get into fairly ancient history to make sense of various territorial disputes between Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, and Poland, and how it all contributed to ethnogenesis of Ukrainians. In particular, look into Grand Duchy of Lithuania.
dandanua 5y ago
> I do understand that Donetsk and Luhansk both have petitioned for more autonomy Crimea was an autonomy. The outcome you know.

yakshaving_jgt 5y ago

> Are there two new countries on the map? It depends who's map you're looking at. > I'm purposely avoiding the discrimination against Ukrainian-speaking people Bear in mind that it's not as simple as discriminating between those who speak Ukrainian and those who speak Russian. A significant proportion of the Ukrainian population speak Russian primarily, but otherwise have no political affinity for Russia. > Going to go with the autonomous region concept until a future referendum of accession into Russia? This is most likely it, though it could further escalate into an even more egregious invasion, which would trigger a military response from Ukraine, which would then give Russia the casus belli they are looking for.

jcranmer 5y ago
> A significant proportion of the Ukrainian population speak Russian primarily, but otherwise have no political affinity for Russia. The best counterpoint for most westerners to understand is this: most Irish people speak English as their primary, if not only, language. Yet English-speaking Irishmen were (and still are) vehemently against being part of the UK.
- mistrial9 5y ago
  thank you for including examples of people - on both sides of that conflict - who will not stop fighting their neighbors, no matter what the century. We used to say long ago, "what is so funny about peace, love and understanding?"
- p1esk 5y ago
  Not the same. My understanding is Ireland has always been culturally separate from England, and as you said, wanted to be politically separate for many centuries. Ukraine is a very young independent state, with its borders changing significantly throughout the last 100 years, but for the most part it was happy to be part of Russia/USSR until the USSR collapse. I'd even say Ukraine is probably more like California, (or Texas) in relation to US, rather than Ireland in relation to GB. And just like I wouldn't mind if California separated from US, I don't mind Ukraine being separate from Russia, but the cultural ties are probably similar to the ties between CA and the rest of US.
  - ncmncm 5y ago
    The definitive relationship between Ukraine and Russia was established when Russia very deliberately arranged to starve 2 million Ukrainians to death by the expedient of driving in and stealing literally every bit of agricultural product they could get their hands on, and killing anybody in their way. Many thousands fled where they could to places with difficulties of their own, often also of Soviet origin. Shortly after, Germans rolled in and devastated the country. Then, the Russians came back through, treating everyone still alive as a Nazi collaborator (because "how could they still be alive, if not?"). Ukrainians who had been drafted by the Nazis and forced to serve as cannon fodder, but survived, were shot or deported to the GULag as traitors (because "how could they still be alive, if not?"). Ukrainians do not think of themselves as Russian even so much as Irishmen consider themselves English.

iskander 5y ago

Every country has regions with distinct cultural and linguistic identities. It often takes an outside power to enable them to split away. Like with Ossetia, Abkhazia, Transnistria, &c the central actor is Russia, not the regions themselves.

adolph 5y ago
A counterpoint might be: The Dissolution of Czechoslovakia (Czech: Rozdělení Československa, Slovak: Rozdelenie Česko-Slovenska) took effect on January 1, 1993, and was the self-determined split of the federal republic of Czechoslovakia into the independent countries of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Both mirrored the Czech Socialist Republic and the Slovak Socialist Republic, which had been created in 1969 as the constituent states of the Czechoslovak Federal Republic. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_Czechoslovakia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_Czechoslovakia Edit: Also Catalonia: The Catalan independence movement (Catalan: independentisme català;[a] Spanish: independentismo catalán) is a social and political movement (with roots in Catalan nationalism) which seeks the independence of Catalonia from Spain, along with in the movement supporting the independence of Northern Catalonia from France, and Alghero from Italy (among other Catalan-speaking areas, referred to as the Catalan Countries). https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence_movement https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_independence_movement Also Euskara: The Basque conflict, also known as the Spain–ETA conflict, was an armed and political conflict from 1959 to 2011 between Spain and the Basque National Liberation Movement, a group of social and political Basque organizations which sought independence from Spain and France. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basque_conflict https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basque_conflict
- iskander 5y ago
  There are a few counter-examples and Czechoslovakia is definitely one of them. The Catalan and Basque independence movements, however, have been successfully contained by Spain. They lacked external support and could not compete with the strength of state suppression. If a neighbor ever chooses to get involved we might see independent Basque and Catalan countries.

ed_balls 5y ago

> I watched Putin's speech I've seen it as well. My guess is that Covid made a huge dent (Low gas prices and economic problems). Putin has to direct this anger somewhere. This is the swan song of the Russian state. People living in the Soviet sphere see how other countries are developing. Ukraine had a higher GDP per capita than Poland - now it's 4x lower. It's true for every single place from Kaliningrad, Caucasus to Vladivostok. They are worse off than their neighbours for purely political reasons. Only thing that holds everything together is the authoritarian regime with strong military and natural resources. The problem is the world will become less dependent on fossil fuels and mining in Siberia is more expensive than pretty much everywhere. Russia won't be able to pay for the army. This is an existential threat to the Russian state. My prediction is that around 2030 there will a civil war, 2nd Chechnya.

ncmncm 5y ago
Yes, this is an indication of Putin's weakness. Putin desperately had to be seen, in Russia, as doing something that seemed to indicate strength, in order to be able to retain power. Facing off against NATO, and getting them to offer him concessions, served that purpose. Invading another country served that purpose. Holding bits of Ukraine, and the fates of people in them, are very much incidental. The concessions were not necessary, but the offers of concessions were all-important.
ohwellish 5y ago
it's not about covid or money - its about Ukraine becoming stronger, more independent than ever from russian influence as old corrupt politicians are getting off their political power so he no longer have a leverage over Ukrainian government the way he used to have its about the choice Ukranian ppl made in 2014 and strong independent Ukraine is a direct threat to russian kleptocracy as russain ppl might have ideas they could make this push too
throwawayay02 5y ago
Energy prices are near all time highs, Russia's finances should be great.
- 5y ago

int_19h 5y ago

Putin literally wrote an essay on how he sees Ukraine: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181 It's agitprop, of course. But it's agitprop for both external and internal consumption, and the latter parts are very telling.

throwawayay02 5y ago
That's a quite good read. I'd like an annotated version with fact checking and commentary.
- int_19h 5y ago
  There's also yesterday's TV address, which is in a similar vein, but more aggressive: https://tass.ru/politika/13791435 https://tass.ru/politika/13791435 An annotated version would be interesting. TL;DR is that it's a mix of truths, omissions, and lies. He's not wrong that some of the modern borders of Ukraine are a Soviet creation, for example, but completely ignores the fact that it was already in the process of establishing itself as an independent country before the Bolsheviks (as the Ukrainian People's Republic). Speaking more broadly, one needs to get into fairly ancient history to make sense of various territorial disputes between Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, Lithuania, and Poland, and how it all contributed to ethnogenesis of Ukrainians. In particular, look into Grand Duchy of Lithuania.

dandanua 5y ago

> I do understand that Donetsk and Luhansk both have petitioned for more autonomy Crimea was an autonomy. The outcome you know.