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The President of Ukraine and all official channels say they do NOT believe a full-scale invasion will happen. Only America says it will happen. We lost Donetsk

by _xnmw 5y ago

The President of Ukraine and all official channels say they do NOT believe a full-scale invasion will happen. Only America says it will happen. We lost Donetsk and Luhansk a long time ago. It's gone now. Hopefully this will end now.

tokai 5y ago
>We lost Donetsk and Luhansk Not all of it.
- _xnmw 5y ago
  I refer to the cities, not the whole oblast.
  - tokai 5y ago
    Well the republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, and Putin refer to the whole oblasts, so it makes your analysis a bit nonsensical.
  - trenchgun 5y ago
    Russia recognized those republics defined by the area in their constitution: ie. whole oblasts. https://twitter.com/JakeCordell/status/1496161279853084677 https://twitter.com/JakeCordell/status/1496161279853084677
    - _xnmw 5y ago
      The assumption is that the actual borders of DNR and LNR will be solved by diplomacy, and Kyiv has hinted that it will try to find a diplomatic solution.
      - tokai 5y ago
        Hope you are safe.
emptysongglass 5y ago
The oblasts are larger than the regions within Russian territory. This is just a straight violation of the sovereign territory of Ukraine. You do not, as a country, get to unilaterally redraw internationally recognized borders just because some people sympathetic to you or who share a language live on the other side.
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- _xnmw 5y ago
  I never said Putin had a right to do it, I'm saying he already did it. Of course it was a totally illegal invasion, but it's done now. What I'm saying is we believe this is the end of the conflict. The official position of the President of Ukraine is that we do not believe a full scale invasion will happen, as do most Ukrainians I know.
  - Sunspark 5y ago
    Once you pay the Dane-geld, you never get rid of the Dane.
    - toyg 5y ago
      Ukraine will never get rid of its continent-sized neighbour, no matter what.
      - lostmsu 5y ago
        Nah, if Russia experiences a strong economic downturn, it may fall apart.
        toyg 5y ago
        It already fell apart once, post-USSR, and it recovered. Russia is like China: it's too culturally coesive over too big an area not to eventually coalesce into a powerful entity sooner or later.
slezyr 5y ago
Full-scale might not happen, but it absolutely does not mean any kind of peace. There is no interest for russia to stop daily shelling and keep capturing in small pieces. Russia has zero interest to stabilize the situation they walked away from all the agreements and negotiations.
- _xnmw 5y ago
  Brother, I believe it is in their interest to stabilize the situation now that Donetsk and Luhansk are officially protected by Russia. Previously the shelling continued for 8 years because of the rebellion.
dragonwriter 5y ago
> The President of Ukraine and all official channels say they do NOT believe a full-scale invasion will happen. This is part of Ukraine’s lobbying effort for strong preemptive, rather than reactive, sanctions against Russia; Ukraine is arguing that Russia can be dissuade from invasion by tougher pre-general-invasion action, and is acting (whether they believe it or not) like they believe that their lobbying effort to Western powers for this approach will succeed in getting the desired policy which will, in turn, dissuade Russia. So far, whether or not they are right that it would work, they seem to be largely unsuccessful in lobbying, with the US, especially, offering only limited sanctions for the actions related to the separatist regions but holding back the massive general sanctions threatened in case of a broader invasion as a reactive contingency. Ukraine’s official channels are very clear that they view decisive factor in Russia’s decision making the strength of immediate Western action. Examples: https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1495922056541753349?t=KpWNVhnV68Tm5H24_y_i0g&s=19 https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1495922056541753349?... Viewing the Ukraine statements about not expecting a full-scale invasion without this context is...misleading. They are saying if an invasion happens, it is because the West failed to be resolute in the ways Ukraine expects them to, not that Russia does not intend to invade.
- _xnmw 5y ago
  I think you're reading the sentiment backward. Of course Ukraine wants stronger sanctions against Russia in any case, because an invasion already happened, not because they believe a full-scale invasion will happen.
  - dragonwriter 5y ago
    They explicitly say (including in the tweet from the FM that I cited) that strong action now is important because Russia’s future action depends on what other countries do now. Yes, they think an invasion already is ongoing, but that's explicitly not the only factor in their call for action. It is directly tied to impact on Russian escalation.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  > So far, whether or not they are right that it would work, they seem to be largely unsuccessful in lobbying, with the US, especially, offering only limited sanctions for the actions related to the separatist regions but holding back the massive general sanctions threatened in case of a broader invasion as a reactive contingency. Well, a couple hours later and this part is outdated, as the US has now announced the first set of general sanctions on Russia and described existing Russian actions as the beginning of the invasion that was always described as the triggering condition for such sanctions.
pqb 5y ago
> The President of Ukraine and all official channels say they do NOT believe a full-scale invasion will happen. First, he is a politician. My rational explanation for his words is to cooldown the emotions. Back in last week, you could see news about many oligarchs departing the country, while others trying to cash out every asset they have. Standing enemies at the borders is economically tragic for the whole country. Trying to sell other, non-catastrophic vision is his duty. Secondly, there were many variants of the invasion. The full-scale operation often means the Russia forces will attack the entire Ukraine - eastern, central and the western. Many experts say this scenario is highly unlikely, because there will be too many casualties on both sides.

by _xnmw 5y ago

tokai 5y ago

>We lost Donetsk and Luhansk Not all of it.

_xnmw 5y ago
I refer to the cities, not the whole oblast.
- tokai 5y ago
  Well the republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, and Putin refer to the whole oblasts, so it makes your analysis a bit nonsensical.
- trenchgun 5y ago
  Russia recognized those republics defined by the area in their constitution: ie. whole oblasts. https://twitter.com/JakeCordell/status/1496161279853084677 https://twitter.com/JakeCordell/status/1496161279853084677
  - _xnmw 5y ago
    The assumption is that the actual borders of DNR and LNR will be solved by diplomacy, and Kyiv has hinted that it will try to find a diplomatic solution.
    - tokai 5y ago
      Hope you are safe.

emptysongglass 5y ago

The oblasts are larger than the regions within Russian territory. This is just a straight violation of the sovereign territory of Ukraine. You do not, as a country, get to unilaterally redraw internationally recognized borders just because some people sympathetic to you or who share a language live on the other side.

deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
_xnmw 5y ago
I never said Putin had a right to do it, I'm saying he already did it. Of course it was a totally illegal invasion, but it's done now. What I'm saying is we believe this is the end of the conflict. The official position of the President of Ukraine is that we do not believe a full scale invasion will happen, as do most Ukrainians I know.
- Sunspark 5y ago
  Once you pay the Dane-geld, you never get rid of the Dane.
  - toyg 5y ago
    Ukraine will never get rid of its continent-sized neighbour, no matter what.
    - lostmsu 5y ago
      Nah, if Russia experiences a strong economic downturn, it may fall apart.
      - toyg 5y ago
        It already fell apart once, post-USSR, and it recovered. Russia is like China: it's too culturally coesive over too big an area not to eventually coalesce into a powerful entity sooner or later.

slezyr 5y ago

Full-scale might not happen, but it absolutely does not mean any kind of peace. There is no interest for russia to stop daily shelling and keep capturing in small pieces. Russia has zero interest to stabilize the situation they walked away from all the agreements and negotiations.

_xnmw 5y ago
Brother, I believe it is in their interest to stabilize the situation now that Donetsk and Luhansk are officially protected by Russia. Previously the shelling continued for 8 years because of the rebellion.

dragonwriter 5y ago

> The President of Ukraine and all official channels say they do NOT believe a full-scale invasion will happen. This is part of Ukraine’s lobbying effort for strong preemptive, rather than reactive, sanctions against Russia; Ukraine is arguing that Russia can be dissuade from invasion by tougher pre-general-invasion action, and is acting (whether they believe it or not) like they believe that their lobbying effort to Western powers for this approach will succeed in getting the desired policy which will, in turn, dissuade Russia. So far, whether or not they are right that it would work, they seem to be largely unsuccessful in lobbying, with the US, especially, offering only limited sanctions for the actions related to the separatist regions but holding back the massive general sanctions threatened in case of a broader invasion as a reactive contingency. Ukraine’s official channels are very clear that they view decisive factor in Russia’s decision making the strength of immediate Western action. Examples: https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1495922056541753349?t=KpWNVhnV68Tm5H24_y_i0g&s=19 https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1495922056541753349?... Viewing the Ukraine statements about not expecting a full-scale invasion without this context is...misleading. They are saying if an invasion happens, it is because the West failed to be resolute in the ways Ukraine expects them to, not that Russia does not intend to invade.

_xnmw 5y ago
I think you're reading the sentiment backward. Of course Ukraine wants stronger sanctions against Russia in any case, because an invasion already happened, not because they believe a full-scale invasion will happen.
- dragonwriter 5y ago
  They explicitly say (including in the tweet from the FM that I cited) that strong action now is important because Russia’s future action depends on what other countries do now. Yes, they think an invasion already is ongoing, but that's explicitly not the only factor in their call for action. It is directly tied to impact on Russian escalation.
dragonwriter 5y ago
> So far, whether or not they are right that it would work, they seem to be largely unsuccessful in lobbying, with the US, especially, offering only limited sanctions for the actions related to the separatist regions but holding back the massive general sanctions threatened in case of a broader invasion as a reactive contingency. Well, a couple hours later and this part is outdated, as the US has now announced the first set of general sanctions on Russia and described existing Russian actions as the beginning of the invasion that was always described as the triggering condition for such sanctions.

pqb 5y ago

> The President of Ukraine and all official channels say they do NOT believe a full-scale invasion will happen. First, he is a politician. My rational explanation for his words is to cooldown the emotions. Back in last week, you could see news about many oligarchs departing the country, while others trying to cash out every asset they have. Standing enemies at the borders is economically tragic for the whole country. Trying to sell other, non-catastrophic vision is his duty. Secondly, there were many variants of the invasion. The full-scale operation often means the Russia forces will attack the entire Ukraine - eastern, central and the western. Many experts say this scenario is highly unlikely, because there will be too many casualties on both sides.