4 ms·

Ask HN: Why did US flu cases plummet US from 38 MM to less than 2k this season?

8 points by hammock 5y ago

PaulHoule 5y ago
Everything we did against C-19. It (1) proves how effective masks, social distancing, etc. are and (2) C-19 highly transmissible compared to the Flu. It's one more reason why the masks are never entirely going to go away.
- hammock 5y ago
  Does that reasoning hold up in the face of states like South Dakota or Florida which barely had any covid measures? Would you expect that lightly-enforced, intermittent and barely-present covid measures would drop a state like Florida from millions of flu cases down to a couple hundred at most? And why do we already have 40k flu cases so far this year, when we had only 2k all of last year?
  - PaulHoule 5y ago
    (1) People in red states have still changed their behavior. In particular if people with flu symptoms are staying home instead of going out that can make a big difference. (2) I bet a lot of flu is spread by people who go to conferences, travel a lot, etc. These activities are greatly curtailed and often happening in places that are taking precautions so that stops it from entering red states.
    - hammock 5y ago
      Does the flu typically spread at home or only outside the house? #2 is an interesting idea. Florida had a record number of visitors last year (118 million), would it be so accurate then to say travel was curtailed there?
mhroth 5y ago
I'm gonna go out on a wild limb here and say that masks probably had something to do with it (among other things).
- mborch 5y ago
  There are some compelling arguments brought against this idea here: https://ianmsc.substack.com/p/no-masks-do-not-work-against-the https://ianmsc.substack.com/p/no-masks-do-not-work-against-t.... That's not the complete story on these past two years and the flu of course, but according to the narrative presented in that article, we don't have much evidence to suggest that masks had anything to do with it.
  - moistly 5y ago
    The guy who makes his living by promoting an anti-mask agenda says masks don’t work. I’m convinced!
    - mborch 5y ago
      As I said, he brings out some compelling arguments. Making a living based on your research work is not in itself a cause for concern. That's what most researchers do.
oriettaxx 5y ago
that's a big change: can you share the source?

8 points by hammock 5y ago

Everything we did against C-19. It (1) proves how effective masks, social distancing, etc. are and (2) C-19 highly transmissible compared to the Flu. It's one more reason why the masks are never entirely going to go away.

hammock 5y ago
Does that reasoning hold up in the face of states like South Dakota or Florida which barely had any covid measures? Would you expect that lightly-enforced, intermittent and barely-present covid measures would drop a state like Florida from millions of flu cases down to a couple hundred at most? And why do we already have 40k flu cases so far this year, when we had only 2k all of last year?
- PaulHoule 5y ago
  (1) People in red states have still changed their behavior. In particular if people with flu symptoms are staying home instead of going out that can make a big difference. (2) I bet a lot of flu is spread by people who go to conferences, travel a lot, etc. These activities are greatly curtailed and often happening in places that are taking precautions so that stops it from entering red states.
  - hammock 5y ago
    Does the flu typically spread at home or only outside the house? #2 is an interesting idea. Florida had a record number of visitors last year (118 million), would it be so accurate then to say travel was curtailed there?

mhroth 5y ago

I'm gonna go out on a wild limb here and say that masks probably had something to do with it (among other things).

mborch 5y ago
There are some compelling arguments brought against this idea here: https://ianmsc.substack.com/p/no-masks-do-not-work-against-the https://ianmsc.substack.com/p/no-masks-do-not-work-against-t.... That's not the complete story on these past two years and the flu of course, but according to the narrative presented in that article, we don't have much evidence to suggest that masks had anything to do with it.
- moistly 5y ago
  The guy who makes his living by promoting an anti-mask agenda says masks don’t work. I’m convinced!
  - mborch 5y ago
    As I said, he brings out some compelling arguments. Making a living based on your research work is not in itself a cause for concern. That's what most researchers do.

oriettaxx 5y ago

that's a big change: can you share the source?