7 ms·

Anyone have thoughts on how this all pans out? I think that the only way out is that Ukraine cuts off its arm to save the head. It acknowledges the territories

Anyone have thoughts on how this all pans out? I think that the only way out is that Ukraine cuts off its arm to save the head. It acknowledges the territories as lost, and consolidates what it has left. But I'm not sure how they do that without: 1. The current leader losing legitimacy, and likely resigning. 2. Opening the door for other parts of Ukraine to split off. 3. Opening the door to Russia to meddle in other parts of Ukraine/other nearby states to encourage them to split off. I don't see Russia backing off in the near future; they've held onto Crimea for the last 8 years without blinking. I don't see NATO involving itself militarily. If a US soldier dies defending Ukraine, I think that enough people will ask "why are we shedding American blood for something that has nothing to do with us?" I don't know that economic sanctions will be enough. We've been doing that for years, and nothing's changed. I don't know that providing weapons to Ukraine will be enough. While the Russians may lose soldiers in the coming months, I've heard that a lot of soldiers come from isolated parts of society (and so the people who mourn them aren't going to be able to organize political resistance).

CodeGlitch 5y ago
> I don't know that economic sanctions will be enough Plus gaining territory = more access to raw materials and labor. Perhaps that's Putin's plan?
kshacker 5y ago
A lot of people (on Reddit) are calling SWIFT expulsion as the lever. Also the nord stream 2 seems to be inoperational shutting down number 1 would have shown seriousness. So I don't know the endgame but I think the west has levers it is too chicken to use.
- davrosthedalek 5y ago
  I am quite happy that both sides are "too chicken" to use all the levers. Some involve putting in long strings of digits and turning keys at the same time. If the only way to survive for Russia is a full out war, we all lose. In that sense: Freezing outside assets might be better to convince the Russian oligarchs to find a peaceful solution: They get their assets back if they can find it. I think Putin being pressured internally by them is probably the best way out of this. On the other hand, taking outside assets away, or impacting income streams, and a peaceful solution doesn't have the upside anymore. The assets are gone, missed income is gone, and future income is uncertain. They might then support more military action. Out of vengeance, or because they see a better future in there.
  - zx85wes 5y ago
    Putin's been telling these oligarchs to bring their money back for years. https://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/20/putin-urges-billionaires-to-bring-money-back-to-russia.html https://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/20/putin-urges-billionaires-to-... You'd be doing him a favour.
busterarm 5y ago
> I don't see NATO involving itself militarily. If a US soldier dies defending Ukraine, I think that enough people will ask "why are we shedding American blood for something that has nothing to do with us?" Which is why it's been so stupid of the US and the EU to push for Ukraine's inclusion into the EU & NATO. All it has done is provoke Russia, who doesn't want foreign influence right on its borders and Ukraine isn't strategically relevant to NATO anyway. Everyone comes out of this looking incredibly stupid.
- CRConrad 5y ago
  > Which is why it's been so stupid of the US and the EU to push for Ukraine's inclusion into the EU & NATO. Or, it's been stupid of the US and the EU to talk about Ukraine's inclusion into the EU & NATO but not actually do it like, in 2015 - 17 sometime. > All it has done is provoke Russia, who doesn't want foreign influence right on its borders and Ukraine isn't strategically relevant to NATO anyway. Why the fuck is what Russia wants so holy? The rest of Europe wouldn't want a third-world country with nukes and a crazy tin-pot dictator on our eastern border, but are we getting that?
- karpierz 5y ago
  I don't think NATO particularly wanted to include Ukraine, but they definitely don't want Russia to be able to dictate who is allowed to be included. Russia is aware of this, which is why in order to set the grounds for an invasion of Ukraine, they repeatedly asked NATO "please swear that you'll never let Ukraine into NATO" with the added non-starter of "remove troops from existing NATO countries". And when NATO rightfully refuses, Russia can claim that NATO is planning to expand to their doorstep. Similarly for the EU, I don't think the EU strongly cares one way or another, but the EU cannot allow Russia to dictate who's allowed in or not. I don't think it's fair to say "the EU shouldn't let countries try to enter on the basis that Russia won't like it" and somehow it's stupid of them to allow a non-member to dictate who's allowed in.
  - busterarm 5y ago
    The EU still has to consider how other nations will react to their policies. Russia and China are still in the 50-100 years ago mentality and will ruthlessly enforce having buffer states between major powers. Sharing a border is simply not in their interests and they would rather destroy Ukraine than allow it to join the EU. The US would do the same thing. Just think about how much we freaked out over the Cuban Missile Crisis. If China struck a deal with Canada to put a military base in Vancouver, we'd lose our shit, but we act shocked and insulted when Russia does the same.
vorpalhex 5y ago
Russia is a bully, and giving an inch will only end with more inches taken. Putin has written - at length - on his desires to reincorporate Ukraine. Russia will not stop until someone makes them unable or unwilling to continue expanding.
drewbug01 5y ago
> I think that the only way out is that Ukraine cuts off its arm to save the head. It acknowledges the territories as lost, and consolidates what it has left. > I don't see Russia backing off in the near future; they've held onto Crimea for the last 8 years without blinking. I think you answered your own question there, a little bit. Putin's speech yesterday really confirms it as well - he doesn't view Ukraine as a legitimate nation, and so the short-term goals are pretty clear: he'll take it all, if he's allowed to.
stanski 5y ago
There is absolutely nothing Ukraine can do but sit and watch Russia do what it wants. They weren't able to defend their Eastern border back when Russia was pretending to not be involved, let alone when they openly are. This is Crimea all over again; the West will keep making noises while Russia effectively annexes further portions of Ukraine.
- maccolgan 5y ago
  >Crimea all over again This is not really Crimea, it's just Kosovo but this time someone else is acting as the hypocrite.
- karpierz 5y ago
  It's a little more nuanced than "they weren't able to defend their Eastern border". They had to balance between: - Too little force, which would allow the separatists to de-facto control the territories and lead to a Crimea situation. - Too much force, which would lead to a Russia invasion triggered by either: Russians dying in Ukraine (since some Russian soldiers were in the region "on vacation") or conflict on the Ukrainian-Russian border (either accidental, or false flag). I'm just trying to figure out what Ukraine can do aside from let itself get gobbled up. Holding its ground while the economic sanctions/protracted warfare eats into Russian morale might work, or it might take too long. Not sure what else will work though.
  - stanski 5y ago
    Is it more nuanced though? The moment separatists started taking over Ukrainian territory, they should've attempted to take that back. Whether they were unable to or not willing to, as you suggest, now things are a lot worse. Either way it was a strategic failure, so yes, they did fail to protect their borders even back then.
    - agapon 5y ago
      > The moment separatists started taking over Ukrainian territory, they should've attempted to take that back. Where have you been from June to August of 2014?
zzleeper 5y ago
You give it the Cuban treatment (not that I think that's right for the case of Cuba..). Basically, the EU and US need to agree to completely blockade the country, limit travel to it, cut its access to global financial system, heck even cut its internet (yay less bitcoin hacks), and do absolutely everything but war for now.
- LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago
  IIRC Russia has prepared for its internet to be able to work independently from the rest. As for the exclusion from SWIFT, they may be able to get a deal with China, maybe Iran and some others too.
lunatuna 5y ago
A lot of discussion is that Ukraine is going to lose its head too. It is getting louder that Russia is going after Kyiv. One option is that Ukraine make it expensive for Russia in terms of man and material with the flood of anti-tank equipment causing some internal strife for Putin. I agree that this isn't going to stop the direction being taken. It just makes it a bit more expensive. As you've mentioned, I don't see NATO or Europe taking direct risks for Ukraine. But I expect that once Russia invades Ukraine proper and takes Kyiv, US and European sanctions will be the most severe we've seen. Russia has done a lot to prepare for this with limiting export dependency to just what the West needs (energy) and holding a lot of foreign currency. I will be interested to see what the UK does as they have been highly enriched by Putin's henchmen and acting as a playground for oligarchs. Ukraine has been bumbling along since the Soviet Union collapsed and is in no position to do anything about it. There isn't enough pain to inflict on Russia to stop it from taking what it wants (which I believe is a infantile and subservient Ukraine). Immediately after the Soviet Union collapsed likely would have been a better time to prepare. The countries that took the reemergence of an aggressive Russia seriously right after the cold war have mostly fared better with stronger economies and ties to Europe to protect themselves. Even if all went well it would still be a very difficult challenge for Ukraine to get out of the sphere of Russia. This is state craft so I wouldn't think along the lines of this year or this decade. I would look out decades to try and see where this is all going. I don't believe that Ukraine will be an EU or NATO member as long as Russia has its current military and economic capabilities. I speculate that Ukraine will be a vassal state for the rest of my lifetime. I would have to see some major fractures in the Russian political position and its economic and military capabilities for my opinion to change. Maybe post Putin the politics changes, I'm not clear on succession planning here. Maybe oil and gas prices go way down and Russia can't field an aggressive military. But I can't see anyone take back Ukraine once Russia invades and changes the political course in Ukraine.

CodeGlitch 5y ago

> I don't know that economic sanctions will be enough Plus gaining territory = more access to raw materials and labor. Perhaps that's Putin's plan?

kshacker 5y ago

A lot of people (on Reddit) are calling SWIFT expulsion as the lever. Also the nord stream 2 seems to be inoperational shutting down number 1 would have shown seriousness. So I don't know the endgame but I think the west has levers it is too chicken to use.

davrosthedalek 5y ago
I am quite happy that both sides are "too chicken" to use all the levers. Some involve putting in long strings of digits and turning keys at the same time. If the only way to survive for Russia is a full out war, we all lose. In that sense: Freezing outside assets might be better to convince the Russian oligarchs to find a peaceful solution: They get their assets back if they can find it. I think Putin being pressured internally by them is probably the best way out of this. On the other hand, taking outside assets away, or impacting income streams, and a peaceful solution doesn't have the upside anymore. The assets are gone, missed income is gone, and future income is uncertain. They might then support more military action. Out of vengeance, or because they see a better future in there.
- zx85wes 5y ago
  Putin's been telling these oligarchs to bring their money back for years. https://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/20/putin-urges-billionaires-to-bring-money-back-to-russia.html https://www.cnbc.com/2015/03/20/putin-urges-billionaires-to-... You'd be doing him a favour.

busterarm 5y ago

> I don't see NATO involving itself militarily. If a US soldier dies defending Ukraine, I think that enough people will ask "why are we shedding American blood for something that has nothing to do with us?" Which is why it's been so stupid of the US and the EU to push for Ukraine's inclusion into the EU & NATO. All it has done is provoke Russia, who doesn't want foreign influence right on its borders and Ukraine isn't strategically relevant to NATO anyway. Everyone comes out of this looking incredibly stupid.

CRConrad 5y ago
> Which is why it's been so stupid of the US and the EU to push for Ukraine's inclusion into the EU & NATO. Or, it's been stupid of the US and the EU to talk about Ukraine's inclusion into the EU & NATO but not actually do it like, in 2015 - 17 sometime. > All it has done is provoke Russia, who doesn't want foreign influence right on its borders and Ukraine isn't strategically relevant to NATO anyway. Why the fuck is what Russia wants so holy? The rest of Europe wouldn't want a third-world country with nukes and a crazy tin-pot dictator on our eastern border, but are we getting that?
karpierz 5y ago
I don't think NATO particularly wanted to include Ukraine, but they definitely don't want Russia to be able to dictate who is allowed to be included. Russia is aware of this, which is why in order to set the grounds for an invasion of Ukraine, they repeatedly asked NATO "please swear that you'll never let Ukraine into NATO" with the added non-starter of "remove troops from existing NATO countries". And when NATO rightfully refuses, Russia can claim that NATO is planning to expand to their doorstep. Similarly for the EU, I don't think the EU strongly cares one way or another, but the EU cannot allow Russia to dictate who's allowed in or not. I don't think it's fair to say "the EU shouldn't let countries try to enter on the basis that Russia won't like it" and somehow it's stupid of them to allow a non-member to dictate who's allowed in.
- busterarm 5y ago
  The EU still has to consider how other nations will react to their policies. Russia and China are still in the 50-100 years ago mentality and will ruthlessly enforce having buffer states between major powers. Sharing a border is simply not in their interests and they would rather destroy Ukraine than allow it to join the EU. The US would do the same thing. Just think about how much we freaked out over the Cuban Missile Crisis. If China struck a deal with Canada to put a military base in Vancouver, we'd lose our shit, but we act shocked and insulted when Russia does the same.

vorpalhex 5y ago

Russia is a bully, and giving an inch will only end with more inches taken. Putin has written - at length - on his desires to reincorporate Ukraine. Russia will not stop until someone makes them unable or unwilling to continue expanding.

drewbug01 5y ago

> I think that the only way out is that Ukraine cuts off its arm to save the head. It acknowledges the territories as lost, and consolidates what it has left. > I don't see Russia backing off in the near future; they've held onto Crimea for the last 8 years without blinking. I think you answered your own question there, a little bit. Putin's speech yesterday really confirms it as well - he doesn't view Ukraine as a legitimate nation, and so the short-term goals are pretty clear: he'll take it all, if he's allowed to.

stanski 5y ago

There is absolutely nothing Ukraine can do but sit and watch Russia do what it wants. They weren't able to defend their Eastern border back when Russia was pretending to not be involved, let alone when they openly are. This is Crimea all over again; the West will keep making noises while Russia effectively annexes further portions of Ukraine.

maccolgan 5y ago
>Crimea all over again This is not really Crimea, it's just Kosovo but this time someone else is acting as the hypocrite.
karpierz 5y ago
It's a little more nuanced than "they weren't able to defend their Eastern border". They had to balance between: - Too little force, which would allow the separatists to de-facto control the territories and lead to a Crimea situation. - Too much force, which would lead to a Russia invasion triggered by either: Russians dying in Ukraine (since some Russian soldiers were in the region "on vacation") or conflict on the Ukrainian-Russian border (either accidental, or false flag). I'm just trying to figure out what Ukraine can do aside from let itself get gobbled up. Holding its ground while the economic sanctions/protracted warfare eats into Russian morale might work, or it might take too long. Not sure what else will work though.
- stanski 5y ago
  Is it more nuanced though? The moment separatists started taking over Ukrainian territory, they should've attempted to take that back. Whether they were unable to or not willing to, as you suggest, now things are a lot worse. Either way it was a strategic failure, so yes, they did fail to protect their borders even back then.
  - agapon 5y ago
    > The moment separatists started taking over Ukrainian territory, they should've attempted to take that back. Where have you been from June to August of 2014?

zzleeper 5y ago

You give it the Cuban treatment (not that I think that's right for the case of Cuba..). Basically, the EU and US need to agree to completely blockade the country, limit travel to it, cut its access to global financial system, heck even cut its internet (yay less bitcoin hacks), and do absolutely everything but war for now.

LargoLasskhyfv 5y ago
IIRC Russia has prepared for its internet to be able to work independently from the rest. As for the exclusion from SWIFT, they may be able to get a deal with China, maybe Iran and some others too.

lunatuna 5y ago

A lot of discussion is that Ukraine is going to lose its head too. It is getting louder that Russia is going after Kyiv. One option is that Ukraine make it expensive for Russia in terms of man and material with the flood of anti-tank equipment causing some internal strife for Putin. I agree that this isn't going to stop the direction being taken. It just makes it a bit more expensive. As you've mentioned, I don't see NATO or Europe taking direct risks for Ukraine. But I expect that once Russia invades Ukraine proper and takes Kyiv, US and European sanctions will be the most severe we've seen. Russia has done a lot to prepare for this with limiting export dependency to just what the West needs (energy) and holding a lot of foreign currency. I will be interested to see what the UK does as they have been highly enriched by Putin's henchmen and acting as a playground for oligarchs. Ukraine has been bumbling along since the Soviet Union collapsed and is in no position to do anything about it. There isn't enough pain to inflict on Russia to stop it from taking what it wants (which I believe is a infantile and subservient Ukraine). Immediately after the Soviet Union collapsed likely would have been a better time to prepare. The countries that took the reemergence of an aggressive Russia seriously right after the cold war have mostly fared better with stronger economies and ties to Europe to protect themselves. Even if all went well it would still be a very difficult challenge for Ukraine to get out of the sphere of Russia. This is state craft so I wouldn't think along the lines of this year or this decade. I would look out decades to try and see where this is all going. I don't believe that Ukraine will be an EU or NATO member as long as Russia has its current military and economic capabilities. I speculate that Ukraine will be a vassal state for the rest of my lifetime. I would have to see some major fractures in the Russian political position and its economic and military capabilities for my opinion to change. Maybe post Putin the politics changes, I'm not clear on succession planning here. Maybe oil and gas prices go way down and Russia can't field an aggressive military. But I can't see anyone take back Ukraine once Russia invades and changes the political course in Ukraine.