4 ms·

>Personally, I don't really see a way out of this. China is going to be more powerful than Nato. This is still playing out, and I'm extremely sceptical of this

>Personally, I don't really see a way out of this. China is going to be more powerful than Nato. This is still playing out, and I'm extremely sceptical of this take. China has a lot of domestic problems to deal with and a lack of allies due to their geo-politiking. Then you have India waiting in the wings, ready to be to China, what China was to America. Keeping in mind, we are all nuclear powers.

sinyug 5y ago
> India waiting in the wings, ready to be to China Indian democracy makes this a non-starter. We cannot get simple things done because every single issue gets tied up in protests and courts for decades on end.[1][2] [1] Indian Neutrino Observatory (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India-based_Neutrino_Observatory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India-based_Neutrino_Observato...) [2] Tamil Nadu says ‘no’ in Supreme Court to neutrino observatory project (https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tn-says-no-in-supreme-court-to-neutrino-observatory-project/article65059219.ece https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tn-says-no-in-supreme...)
- starfallg 5y ago
  The idea that a democracy can't get anything done is pretty silly. The problem with the Indian system isn't really to do with democracy, rather the structure of the Indian political system that can be fixed. The CCP took decades in order to settle upon a structure that worked for them, before Deng it was endless chaos and internal strife.
3pt14159 5y ago
China has their pants on. India doesn't. They won't for a decade at the very least. China has 40% more population than Nato. Their culture is naturally harder to copy because of their extremely difficult language and tightened boarders. They work laughbly longer hours than we do in the west due to the 996 system. They're smart, make no bones about it. They're vicious when it comes to espionage and IP theft. They solve coordination problems with a brute force hammer of "do what I say" communism which cuts both ways, yes, but it will be a while before their generational concerns catch up to them. They are going to be the dominant power ten years from now and the only thing we can do in advance of this reality is to band together and limit our dependance on them. The time for frienship making is over. The temporary strategy will be appeasement. The long term strategy will be disengagement. They'll go after gains in Africa and the Middle East and rule with an iron fist and we'll capture what we can from Eastern Europe before the next curtain falls on the world and hopefully Central and South America will come with us too. There will be two worlds. One in China's orbit with Russia as a strong second in the same way that the US and the UK operate and one in what we currently call The West or Nato for short. The Common Wealth, United States of America, European Union, Japan and some minor Asian states like Vietnam and South Korea, Mexico, Chile, and hopiful most of the rest of Latin America. Being a nuclear power isn't enough. To use a nuclear weapon is to escalate to Defcon 1, which risks total castatrophe for your own nation. Real material still matters and China will outmatch us soon and the sooner we recognize that and prepare for it the better.
- starfallg 5y ago
  China still needs western markets. While western manufactures are moving production to other countries, China is learning the hard way directly selling to Western consumers. It is both costly to service western markets directly due to difference in expectations and risky due to political intervention. The fact is that China currently doesn't have an orbit. It doesn't have NATO, anything resembling the CT/TTP (the absence of the US is one of the major policy failures of the Trump presidency) or NAFTA. Belt and Road has developed the reputation of being completely exploitative, and a way to offload surplus construction capacity in China. This ties in with the current problems we see in China, where the construction sector is far too large and not sustainable. My point about nuclear is that China is very limited in where is can project its power.
  - CRConrad 5y ago
    > China still needs western markets. While western manufactures are moving production to other countries, China is learning the hard way directly selling to Western consumers. For how much longer, as it is spreading its military / geopolitical power and economic / political model to Africa and the rest of the Third World? It'll be growing its own new customer / supplier markets along with its military / geopolitical allies / clients / satellites / puppets.
    - starfallg 5y ago
      Yeah, I'm not saying we should be complacent but we should evaluate the situation objectively. Time to act is now, and the west should ensure that the values of liberal democracy be preserved and authoritarianism contained.

sinyug 5y ago

> India waiting in the wings, ready to be to China Indian democracy makes this a non-starter. We cannot get simple things done because every single issue gets tied up in protests and courts for decades on end.[1][2] [1] Indian Neutrino Observatory (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India-based_Neutrino_Observatory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India-based_Neutrino_Observato...) [2] Tamil Nadu says ‘no’ in Supreme Court to neutrino observatory project (https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tn-says-no-in-supreme-court-to-neutrino-observatory-project/article65059219.ece https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tn-says-no-in-supreme...)

starfallg 5y ago
The idea that a democracy can't get anything done is pretty silly. The problem with the Indian system isn't really to do with democracy, rather the structure of the Indian political system that can be fixed. The CCP took decades in order to settle upon a structure that worked for them, before Deng it was endless chaos and internal strife.

3pt14159 5y ago

China has their pants on. India doesn't. They won't for a decade at the very least. China has 40% more population than Nato. Their culture is naturally harder to copy because of their extremely difficult language and tightened boarders. They work laughbly longer hours than we do in the west due to the 996 system. They're smart, make no bones about it. They're vicious when it comes to espionage and IP theft. They solve coordination problems with a brute force hammer of "do what I say" communism which cuts both ways, yes, but it will be a while before their generational concerns catch up to them. They are going to be the dominant power ten years from now and the only thing we can do in advance of this reality is to band together and limit our dependance on them. The time for frienship making is over. The temporary strategy will be appeasement. The long term strategy will be disengagement. They'll go after gains in Africa and the Middle East and rule with an iron fist and we'll capture what we can from Eastern Europe before the next curtain falls on the world and hopefully Central and South America will come with us too. There will be two worlds. One in China's orbit with Russia as a strong second in the same way that the US and the UK operate and one in what we currently call The West or Nato for short. The Common Wealth, United States of America, European Union, Japan and some minor Asian states like Vietnam and South Korea, Mexico, Chile, and hopiful most of the rest of Latin America. Being a nuclear power isn't enough. To use a nuclear weapon is to escalate to Defcon 1, which risks total castatrophe for your own nation. Real material still matters and China will outmatch us soon and the sooner we recognize that and prepare for it the better.

starfallg 5y ago
China still needs western markets. While western manufactures are moving production to other countries, China is learning the hard way directly selling to Western consumers. It is both costly to service western markets directly due to difference in expectations and risky due to political intervention. The fact is that China currently doesn't have an orbit. It doesn't have NATO, anything resembling the CT/TTP (the absence of the US is one of the major policy failures of the Trump presidency) or NAFTA. Belt and Road has developed the reputation of being completely exploitative, and a way to offload surplus construction capacity in China. This ties in with the current problems we see in China, where the construction sector is far too large and not sustainable. My point about nuclear is that China is very limited in where is can project its power.
- CRConrad 5y ago
  > China still needs western markets. While western manufactures are moving production to other countries, China is learning the hard way directly selling to Western consumers. For how much longer, as it is spreading its military / geopolitical power and economic / political model to Africa and the rest of the Third World? It'll be growing its own new customer / supplier markets along with its military / geopolitical allies / clients / satellites / puppets.
  - starfallg 5y ago
    Yeah, I'm not saying we should be complacent but we should evaluate the situation objectively. Time to act is now, and the west should ensure that the values of liberal democracy be preserved and authoritarianism contained.