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Russia is already dependant on China. Without China they would not be able to weather economic sanctions and a China-Russia (plus minor countries like Belarus)

Russia is already dependant on China. Without China they would not be able to weather economic sanctions and a China-Russia (plus minor countries like Belarus) is forming a new anti-Nato block. The logical next move if the pipeline to Europe falls through is for those speedy Chinese builders to build a pipeline. Russia isn't going to defect and even if they do it wouldn't cripple China. It's in China's interest to keep the current political climate in Russia, since if Putin falls to a pro-democratic group like Ukraine did, Russia will snap hard to Nato. And to keep that political climate Russia has to move hydrocarbons. Personally, I don't really see a way out of this. China is going to be more powerful than Nato. There is no reasonable way out of it. The sooner we recognize this, the faster we'll isolate our economies from Russian and Chinese influence. This is partially our fault for not doing a Marshal Plan Part Duex in Russia / Ukraine after the iron curtain fell, but really the main problem is that we extended a hand out in good faith to China and it didn't break the way we wanted it to. Rather than join the club and be the most influential member they've decided to real politik and be the next hegemon. It didn't have to be this way, even with the Chinese Communist Party in charge. Vietnam is perfectly capable of joining the club (TPP) without a functioning democracy.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> China is going to be more powerful than Nato This is a weird extrapolation. Assuming Europe remains impotent, the UK, Australia and U.S. are going to have more mobile firepower than China has total firepower for decades to come.
- 3pt14159 5y ago
  They have 40% more population than Nato and they don't have the same coordination costs that we do. All we have on them is soft power and economic ties. The first of which is hard to argue with but the second of which is in question. As for mobile firepower, it takes time to invest in deployment capabilities, yes, but if their task is to dominate a specific target (vs global power projection) then they'll outmatch us within ten years. We do not have long. We need to fix our posture.
starfallg 5y ago
>Personally, I don't really see a way out of this. China is going to be more powerful than Nato. This is still playing out, and I'm extremely sceptical of this take. China has a lot of domestic problems to deal with and a lack of allies due to their geo-politiking. Then you have India waiting in the wings, ready to be to China, what China was to America. Keeping in mind, we are all nuclear powers.
- sinyug 5y ago
  > India waiting in the wings, ready to be to China Indian democracy makes this a non-starter. We cannot get simple things done because every single issue gets tied up in protests and courts for decades on end.[1][2] [1] Indian Neutrino Observatory (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India-based_Neutrino_Observatory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India-based_Neutrino_Observato...) [2] Tamil Nadu says ‘no’ in Supreme Court to neutrino observatory project (https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tn-says-no-in-supreme-court-to-neutrino-observatory-project/article65059219.ece https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tn-says-no-in-supreme...)
  - starfallg 5y ago
    The idea that a democracy can't get anything done is pretty silly. The problem with the Indian system isn't really to do with democracy, rather the structure of the Indian political system that can be fixed. The CCP took decades in order to settle upon a structure that worked for them, before Deng it was endless chaos and internal strife.
- 3pt14159 5y ago
  China has their pants on. India doesn't. They won't for a decade at the very least. China has 40% more population than Nato. Their culture is naturally harder to copy because of their extremely difficult language and tightened boarders. They work laughbly longer hours than we do in the west due to the 996 system. They're smart, make no bones about it. They're vicious when it comes to espionage and IP theft. They solve coordination problems with a brute force hammer of "do what I say" communism which cuts both ways, yes, but it will be a while before their generational concerns catch up to them. They are going to be the dominant power ten years from now and the only thing we can do in advance of this reality is to band together and limit our dependance on them. The time for frienship making is over. The temporary strategy will be appeasement. The long term strategy will be disengagement. They'll go after gains in Africa and the Middle East and rule with an iron fist and we'll capture what we can from Eastern Europe before the next curtain falls on the world and hopefully Central and South America will come with us too. There will be two worlds. One in China's orbit with Russia as a strong second in the same way that the US and the UK operate and one in what we currently call The West or Nato for short. The Common Wealth, United States of America, European Union, Japan and some minor Asian states like Vietnam and South Korea, Mexico, Chile, and hopiful most of the rest of Latin America. Being a nuclear power isn't enough. To use a nuclear weapon is to escalate to Defcon 1, which risks total castatrophe for your own nation. Real material still matters and China will outmatch us soon and the sooner we recognize that and prepare for it the better.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago

> China is going to be more powerful than Nato This is a weird extrapolation. Assuming Europe remains impotent, the UK, Australia and U.S. are going to have more mobile firepower than China has total firepower for decades to come.

3pt14159 5y ago
They have 40% more population than Nato and they don't have the same coordination costs that we do. All we have on them is soft power and economic ties. The first of which is hard to argue with but the second of which is in question. As for mobile firepower, it takes time to invest in deployment capabilities, yes, but if their task is to dominate a specific target (vs global power projection) then they'll outmatch us within ten years. We do not have long. We need to fix our posture.

starfallg 5y ago

>Personally, I don't really see a way out of this. China is going to be more powerful than Nato. This is still playing out, and I'm extremely sceptical of this take. China has a lot of domestic problems to deal with and a lack of allies due to their geo-politiking. Then you have India waiting in the wings, ready to be to China, what China was to America. Keeping in mind, we are all nuclear powers.

sinyug 5y ago
> India waiting in the wings, ready to be to China Indian democracy makes this a non-starter. We cannot get simple things done because every single issue gets tied up in protests and courts for decades on end.[1][2] [1] Indian Neutrino Observatory (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India-based_Neutrino_Observatory https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India-based_Neutrino_Observato...) [2] Tamil Nadu says ‘no’ in Supreme Court to neutrino observatory project (https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tn-says-no-in-supreme-court-to-neutrino-observatory-project/article65059219.ece https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/tn-says-no-in-supreme...)
- starfallg 5y ago
  The idea that a democracy can't get anything done is pretty silly. The problem with the Indian system isn't really to do with democracy, rather the structure of the Indian political system that can be fixed. The CCP took decades in order to settle upon a structure that worked for them, before Deng it was endless chaos and internal strife.
3pt14159 5y ago
China has their pants on. India doesn't. They won't for a decade at the very least. China has 40% more population than Nato. Their culture is naturally harder to copy because of their extremely difficult language and tightened boarders. They work laughbly longer hours than we do in the west due to the 996 system. They're smart, make no bones about it. They're vicious when it comes to espionage and IP theft. They solve coordination problems with a brute force hammer of "do what I say" communism which cuts both ways, yes, but it will be a while before their generational concerns catch up to them. They are going to be the dominant power ten years from now and the only thing we can do in advance of this reality is to band together and limit our dependance on them. The time for frienship making is over. The temporary strategy will be appeasement. The long term strategy will be disengagement. They'll go after gains in Africa and the Middle East and rule with an iron fist and we'll capture what we can from Eastern Europe before the next curtain falls on the world and hopefully Central and South America will come with us too. There will be two worlds. One in China's orbit with Russia as a strong second in the same way that the US and the UK operate and one in what we currently call The West or Nato for short. The Common Wealth, United States of America, European Union, Japan and some minor Asian states like Vietnam and South Korea, Mexico, Chile, and hopiful most of the rest of Latin America. Being a nuclear power isn't enough. To use a nuclear weapon is to escalate to Defcon 1, which risks total castatrophe for your own nation. Real material still matters and China will outmatch us soon and the sooner we recognize that and prepare for it the better.