5 ms·

China is not stupid to become depended on Russian gas or oil supply. The deal they signed with Russia is for 38 billion cubic meters of gas sent through "Power

China is not stupid to become depended on Russian gas or oil supply. The deal they signed with Russia is for 38 billion cubic meters of gas sent through "Power of Siberia" gas pipe (for comparison, in 2006 Poland purchase from Russia 206 billion cubic meters) and this throughput will be reached in 2025. Russia has no practical way to transfer gas designated for Europe to China, there is no pipe they can use as gas comes from different sources. But yes, China is looking how Europe, USA, NATO is handling the situation as this will give some hints if "the West" is still capable to defend Taiwan, Philippines, Japan...

littlestymaar 5y ago
> Taiwan, Philippines, Japan... Come on, China is bad enough as it is, no need to overdo it with imaginary threats. (Edit: wow impressed by how fast these downvotes came. I wonder if it was triggered by the “China is bad” part or my point that a Chinese invasion of Japan or Philippines is a complete fantasy. In case it's the second part, you should probably take a break from American news…)
- ravel-bar-foo 5y ago
  While Japan may be a stretch, it is not an exaggeration that China has designs on the territorial waters of the Phillipines and Vietnam and currently lodges diplomatic protests when Koreans flaunt their traditional culture, revealing something that looks like an expectation of tribute.
  - mytailorisrich 5y ago
    The issue between China (both PRC and Taiwan since they have the same claims) and the Philippines and Vietnam is with the South China Sea, namely the so-called "nine dash line" that includes areas also claimed by Vietnam and the Philippines. Interestingly, the Philippines were previously invaded and occupied by Spain, the US, and Japan but never China although one of their nearest neighbour... Likewise although there were conflicts and Northern Vietnam was briefly taken over by China 600 years ago, Vietnam was only fully colonised by France. This is just to point out that China is not historically as aggressive as we are in the West.
    - nindalf 5y ago
      I notice you carefully avoided mention of Korea. Were you hoping no one caught that China has dominated Korea for centuries? Or that there were failed attempts to conquer Japan? Incompetence doesn’t equal a peacenik attitude.
      - mytailorisrich 5y ago
        I did not avoid anything. Korea is nearer China's "centre of gravity" and has obviously had very close interactions and was indeed a vassal state of China at some point following invasion by the Mongols. But China did not really invade it the way Japan did and it does not detract to my point. It's FUD to claim that China plans to invade its neighbours. Having a growing influence, sure, but it's quite different and they have along way to go before they can get even halfway to the level of control and influence the US have over many countries, for instance.
      - littlestymaar 5y ago
        You can't be serious are you? In a discussion about the history of Japan Korea and China, arguing that China was “the bad guy”?! That being said, history is a poor proxy for future behavior: Japan is really unlikely to ever resume its aggressive expansionist policy, and it's not because China doesn't have a terrible track record of neighbors invasion that it will not start in this century. But that doesn't really excuse rewriting history…
        nindalf 5y ago
        You’re arguing in bad faith, or you simply didn’t read the comment I was replying to. That person was making an extraordinary claim - that China has been completely peaceful. I replied to that claim alone And here you are with vitriolic claims that I was rewriting history.
        littlestymaar 5y ago
        > That person was making an extraordinary claim - that China has been completely peaceful. No, they did not say that. What they actually said: > This is just to point out that China is not historically as aggressive as we are in the West. Now talk about “bad faith”…
- deleted 5y ago
  [deleted]
- refurb 5y ago
  I assume you’re interpreting the comment as “invasion” of Japan or the Philippines. Which I agree is unlikely What is more likely is China’s Sphere of Influence extending well beyond Taiwan. No invasion needed or even the installation of a friendly government - just a government that won’t pushback.
- another_story 5y ago
  Any disputed island (in the eyes of China) will be up for grabs. It won't stop at Taiwan. It'll be any non-nuclear power they can push around. That 9-dash line will become a reality.
- nindalf 5y ago
  Your comment has this air of condescension, like the people who downvoted you to the colour of the HN background don’t know what they’re talking about. That would be bad enough. But in addition it seems like you’re ignorant of China’s Nine Dash Line, which has impacted Philippines and others. And their demand for control of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, which has impacted Japan. Condescension + ignorance is a killer combination
rad_gruchalski 5y ago
Uh, it’s a 30 year contract and China is also investing in Russian lng related companies: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/a-property-sells-10-gas-producer-yatek-zhejiang-energy-567-mln-2022-01-19/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/a-property-sells-10-.... From another source: https://lngprime.com/asia/chinas-zhejiang-energy-to-buy-stake-in-russias-yakutia-lng-project/39601/ https://lngprime.com/asia/chinas-zhejiang-energy-to-buy-stak... > Furthermore, A-Property said that the project involves building a 1358 kilometers long pipeline that would connect Yatek’s fields in Yakutia to the 18 mtpa LNG plant near Ayan on the Sea of Okhotsk. From there, it seems to be pretty close to China. I said this in another thread yesterday: I very much think that this contract is what gave Russia the upper hand. When the Western Europe was the majority market gor Russian gas, things were status quo. Once China starts buying more and more gas from Russia, Russia doesn’t have to please Europe anymore and Europe can impose any sanctions it wants.
- phkahler 5y ago
  >> I very much think that this contract is what gave Russia the upper hand. When the Western Europe was the majority market gor Russian gas, things were status quo. Once China starts buying more and more gas from Russia, Russia doesn’t have to please Europe anymore and Europe can impose any sanctions it wants. Yep. If Europe (and Germany in particular) retaliates with economic warfare (err... sanctions) then Russia will simply turn off Nordstream 1. Options to sell to China instead make this much easier for them to do. Maybe there isn't currently a good way to deliver, but have you seen how fast China can build stuff if they really want to? This idea of Germany voting not to turn on a pipeline that is currently not turned on is just an attempt to make it look like they're doing something when in fact, they are not doing anything.
  - rad_gruchalski 5y ago
    Indeed. And those who say “yeah, but it’s only 36m cubic meters” kinda gloss over the fact that at any time they can simply ramp up. Those 36m m3 can be just a pilot. Those gas field in Yakutia have half a trillion m3 reserves: > The firm said it expects Yatek’s gas reserves to rise to 567 billion cubic meters in the third quarter of 2022.
3pt14159 5y ago
Russia is already dependant on China. Without China they would not be able to weather economic sanctions and a China-Russia (plus minor countries like Belarus) is forming a new anti-Nato block. The logical next move if the pipeline to Europe falls through is for those speedy Chinese builders to build a pipeline. Russia isn't going to defect and even if they do it wouldn't cripple China. It's in China's interest to keep the current political climate in Russia, since if Putin falls to a pro-democratic group like Ukraine did, Russia will snap hard to Nato. And to keep that political climate Russia has to move hydrocarbons. Personally, I don't really see a way out of this. China is going to be more powerful than Nato. There is no reasonable way out of it. The sooner we recognize this, the faster we'll isolate our economies from Russian and Chinese influence. This is partially our fault for not doing a Marshal Plan Part Duex in Russia / Ukraine after the iron curtain fell, but really the main problem is that we extended a hand out in good faith to China and it didn't break the way we wanted it to. Rather than join the club and be the most influential member they've decided to real politik and be the next hegemon. It didn't have to be this way, even with the Chinese Communist Party in charge. Vietnam is perfectly capable of joining the club (TPP) without a functioning democracy.
- JumpCrisscross 5y ago
  > China is going to be more powerful than Nato This is a weird extrapolation. Assuming Europe remains impotent, the UK, Australia and U.S. are going to have more mobile firepower than China has total firepower for decades to come.
  - 3pt14159 5y ago
    They have 40% more population than Nato and they don't have the same coordination costs that we do. All we have on them is soft power and economic ties. The first of which is hard to argue with but the second of which is in question. As for mobile firepower, it takes time to invest in deployment capabilities, yes, but if their task is to dominate a specific target (vs global power projection) then they'll outmatch us within ten years. We do not have long. We need to fix our posture.
- starfallg 5y ago

littlestymaar 5y ago

> Taiwan, Philippines, Japan... Come on, China is bad enough as it is, no need to overdo it with imaginary threats. (Edit: wow impressed by how fast these downvotes came. I wonder if it was triggered by the “China is bad” part or my point that a Chinese invasion of Japan or Philippines is a complete fantasy. In case it's the second part, you should probably take a break from American news…)

ravel-bar-foo 5y ago
While Japan may be a stretch, it is not an exaggeration that China has designs on the territorial waters of the Phillipines and Vietnam and currently lodges diplomatic protests when Koreans flaunt their traditional culture, revealing something that looks like an expectation of tribute.
- mytailorisrich 5y ago
  The issue between China (both PRC and Taiwan since they have the same claims) and the Philippines and Vietnam is with the South China Sea, namely the so-called "nine dash line" that includes areas also claimed by Vietnam and the Philippines. Interestingly, the Philippines were previously invaded and occupied by Spain, the US, and Japan but never China although one of their nearest neighbour... Likewise although there were conflicts and Northern Vietnam was briefly taken over by China 600 years ago, Vietnam was only fully colonised by France. This is just to point out that China is not historically as aggressive as we are in the West.
  - nindalf 5y ago
    I notice you carefully avoided mention of Korea. Were you hoping no one caught that China has dominated Korea for centuries? Or that there were failed attempts to conquer Japan? Incompetence doesn’t equal a peacenik attitude.
    - mytailorisrich 5y ago
      I did not avoid anything. Korea is nearer China's "centre of gravity" and has obviously had very close interactions and was indeed a vassal state of China at some point following invasion by the Mongols. But China did not really invade it the way Japan did and it does not detract to my point. It's FUD to claim that China plans to invade its neighbours. Having a growing influence, sure, but it's quite different and they have along way to go before they can get even halfway to the level of control and influence the US have over many countries, for instance.
    - littlestymaar 5y ago
      You can't be serious are you? In a discussion about the history of Japan Korea and China, arguing that China was “the bad guy”?! That being said, history is a poor proxy for future behavior: Japan is really unlikely to ever resume its aggressive expansionist policy, and it's not because China doesn't have a terrible track record of neighbors invasion that it will not start in this century. But that doesn't really excuse rewriting history…
      - nindalf 5y ago
        You’re arguing in bad faith, or you simply didn’t read the comment I was replying to. That person was making an extraordinary claim - that China has been completely peaceful. I replied to that claim alone And here you are with vitriolic claims that I was rewriting history.
        littlestymaar 5y ago
        > That person was making an extraordinary claim - that China has been completely peaceful. No, they did not say that. What they actually said: > This is just to point out that China is not historically as aggressive as we are in the West. Now talk about “bad faith”…
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
refurb 5y ago
I assume you’re interpreting the comment as “invasion” of Japan or the Philippines. Which I agree is unlikely What is more likely is China’s Sphere of Influence extending well beyond Taiwan. No invasion needed or even the installation of a friendly government - just a government that won’t pushback.
another_story 5y ago
Any disputed island (in the eyes of China) will be up for grabs. It won't stop at Taiwan. It'll be any non-nuclear power they can push around. That 9-dash line will become a reality.
nindalf 5y ago
Your comment has this air of condescension, like the people who downvoted you to the colour of the HN background don’t know what they’re talking about. That would be bad enough. But in addition it seems like you’re ignorant of China’s Nine Dash Line, which has impacted Philippines and others. And their demand for control of the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, which has impacted Japan. Condescension + ignorance is a killer combination

rad_gruchalski 5y ago

Uh, it’s a 30 year contract and China is also investing in Russian lng related companies: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/a-property-sells-10-gas-producer-yatek-zhejiang-energy-567-mln-2022-01-19/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/a-property-sells-10-.... From another source: https://lngprime.com/asia/chinas-zhejiang-energy-to-buy-stake-in-russias-yakutia-lng-project/39601/ https://lngprime.com/asia/chinas-zhejiang-energy-to-buy-stak... > Furthermore, A-Property said that the project involves building a 1358 kilometers long pipeline that would connect Yatek’s fields in Yakutia to the 18 mtpa LNG plant near Ayan on the Sea of Okhotsk. From there, it seems to be pretty close to China. I said this in another thread yesterday: I very much think that this contract is what gave Russia the upper hand. When the Western Europe was the majority market gor Russian gas, things were status quo. Once China starts buying more and more gas from Russia, Russia doesn’t have to please Europe anymore and Europe can impose any sanctions it wants.

phkahler 5y ago
>> I very much think that this contract is what gave Russia the upper hand. When the Western Europe was the majority market gor Russian gas, things were status quo. Once China starts buying more and more gas from Russia, Russia doesn’t have to please Europe anymore and Europe can impose any sanctions it wants. Yep. If Europe (and Germany in particular) retaliates with economic warfare (err... sanctions) then Russia will simply turn off Nordstream 1. Options to sell to China instead make this much easier for them to do. Maybe there isn't currently a good way to deliver, but have you seen how fast China can build stuff if they really want to? This idea of Germany voting not to turn on a pipeline that is currently not turned on is just an attempt to make it look like they're doing something when in fact, they are not doing anything.
- rad_gruchalski 5y ago
  Indeed. And those who say “yeah, but it’s only 36m cubic meters” kinda gloss over the fact that at any time they can simply ramp up. Those 36m m3 can be just a pilot. Those gas field in Yakutia have half a trillion m3 reserves: > The firm said it expects Yatek’s gas reserves to rise to 567 billion cubic meters in the third quarter of 2022.

3pt14159 5y ago

Russia is already dependant on China. Without China they would not be able to weather economic sanctions and a China-Russia (plus minor countries like Belarus) is forming a new anti-Nato block. The logical next move if the pipeline to Europe falls through is for those speedy Chinese builders to build a pipeline. Russia isn't going to defect and even if they do it wouldn't cripple China. It's in China's interest to keep the current political climate in Russia, since if Putin falls to a pro-democratic group like Ukraine did, Russia will snap hard to Nato. And to keep that political climate Russia has to move hydrocarbons. Personally, I don't really see a way out of this. China is going to be more powerful than Nato. There is no reasonable way out of it. The sooner we recognize this, the faster we'll isolate our economies from Russian and Chinese influence. This is partially our fault for not doing a Marshal Plan Part Duex in Russia / Ukraine after the iron curtain fell, but really the main problem is that we extended a hand out in good faith to China and it didn't break the way we wanted it to. Rather than join the club and be the most influential member they've decided to real politik and be the next hegemon. It didn't have to be this way, even with the Chinese Communist Party in charge. Vietnam is perfectly capable of joining the club (TPP) without a functioning democracy.

JumpCrisscross 5y ago
> China is going to be more powerful than Nato This is a weird extrapolation. Assuming Europe remains impotent, the UK, Australia and U.S. are going to have more mobile firepower than China has total firepower for decades to come.
- 3pt14159 5y ago
  They have 40% more population than Nato and they don't have the same coordination costs that we do. All we have on them is soft power and economic ties. The first of which is hard to argue with but the second of which is in question. As for mobile firepower, it takes time to invest in deployment capabilities, yes, but if their task is to dominate a specific target (vs global power projection) then they'll outmatch us within ten years. We do not have long. We need to fix our posture.
starfallg 5y ago