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Here's some quick numbers I just googled to understand the big picture. This pipeline has an annual capacity of 55 billion cubic meters. It's the same capacity

Here's some quick numbers I just googled to understand the big picture. This pipeline has an annual capacity of 55 billion cubic meters. It's the same capacity as the Nord Stream 1, which is already in operation. If Germany was truly meaning business, they'd stop Nord Stream 1 the moment Russian boots enter Ukrainian territory. But let's leave that aside. 55 billion cubic meters translate to about 0.6 billion MWh. The price today for natural gas Dutch TTF futures is EUR 78/MWh [1] , so that translates in about 40 billion EUR per year. It has been as low as EUR 13 and as high as EUR 165 over the last 2 years. It's quite likely that Russia would make a profit even at the lower range, so the 40 billion EUR/year is pretty much pure profit for them. [1] https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5350859&span=3 https://www.theice.com/products/27996665/Dutch-TTF-Gas-Futur...

deepsun 5y ago
There are multiple alternative options, land based, as well. NS2 doesn't really change the pricing.
ianai 5y ago
More informative might be: some price sensitivities around LNG, and how changing supply may affect price.
- credit_guy 5y ago
  It would be more informative, but it’s much more difficult to estimate that. If you have a quick way to do it, feel free to add to the conversation.
hajile 5y ago
Nordstream 2 has sanctions against it in the US and has for several years now. Work on the pipeline stopped an hour or two before they were signed into law (by the allegedly pro-Russia Trump). Like Biden always does, he just ignored the bi-partisan sanctions passed by congress because it'll be too late by the time the courts get done (Biden subverting the system to help Russia get what they want) This is important because Ukraine said quite a while ago that sanctions of Nordstream 2 would go a long way toward preventing war[0] Meanwhile, the Democrats spent a morning last week waxing eloquent about the evil of the filibuster only to use the filibuster that same day to stop a bi-partisan set of Nordstream 2 sanctions from passing because it was just under the requisite 60 votes. [0] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-us-not-too-late-stop-russian-pipeline-2021-08-31/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-us-not-too-l...
- pjc50 5y ago
  [citation needed] If something were actually bipartisan, surely it would be over the filibuster threshold?
  - hajile 5y ago
    https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-democrats-slam-cruz-nord-stream-2-sanctions-bill-ahead-vote-2022-01-13/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-democrats-slam-cruz-nord... It was 55 to 44. As some Republicans like Rand Paul always vote against sanctions, there were at least 6-7 democrats in favor. In any case, it was merely stating AGAIN what had ALREADY been legislated before (and Biden simply refuse to execute what the Constitution demands)
- another_why 5y ago
  They show in the news only what they want you to hear. Everything was agreed upon and scheduled long before February, including US,EU,Russia and even Ukraine. Macron was flying all over the world for a reason
  - hajile 5y ago
    If the sanctions were never repealed by the US Congress, the US president has no right to overrule their policy. This has been in the US Constitution from the beginning of the country and is hardly controversial. Interestingly, failing to uphold the Constitution and execute the laws passed by congress is serious grounds for impeachment (though it simply will not happen until at least 2023).
deleted 5y ago
[deleted]
meinersbur 5y ago
> If Germany was truly meaning business, they'd stop Nord Stream 1 If Germany is meaning business, they'd stop buying any gas from Russia. Why would the means how it gets to Germany even matter?
- ttyyzz 5y ago
  How am I going to heat my house?
  - AndyMcConachie 5y ago
    Don't know why you got downvoted. All these Americans in this thread can have all the opinions they want. They're not getting screwed by high gas prices right now.
    - mercutio2 5y ago
      Gas prices are extremely high for Americans this year, also. But it’s true that Russia isn’t a driving force in that.
      - lostmsu 5y ago
        I think "extremely high" is quite an overstatement.
      - stjohnswarts 5y ago
        Gas/fuel prices are a global commodity, of course the Ukraine conflict will affect Americans, not as much as Europe, but Americans will get a lot of it as well. The middle east is probably loving the influx of income.
        mercutio2 5y ago
        Gas in this case means methane, right? While it’s technically true that there’s shipping of LNG outside of pipelines, my impression is that the market for methane isn’t currently very global. My point was that the resurgence of economies and cold winters has driven up US methane prices to 2-2.5x where they were a year ago. I was specifically responding to a commenter implying Americans aren’t experiencing difficulty paying for heating this year. How much higher are German rates for methane?

deepsun 5y ago

There are multiple alternative options, land based, as well. NS2 doesn't really change the pricing.

ianai 5y ago

More informative might be: some price sensitivities around LNG, and how changing supply may affect price.

credit_guy 5y ago
It would be more informative, but it’s much more difficult to estimate that. If you have a quick way to do it, feel free to add to the conversation.

hajile 5y ago

Nordstream 2 has sanctions against it in the US and has for several years now. Work on the pipeline stopped an hour or two before they were signed into law (by the allegedly pro-Russia Trump). Like Biden always does, he just ignored the bi-partisan sanctions passed by congress because it'll be too late by the time the courts get done (Biden subverting the system to help Russia get what they want) This is important because Ukraine said quite a while ago that sanctions of Nordstream 2 would go a long way toward preventing war[0] Meanwhile, the Democrats spent a morning last week waxing eloquent about the evil of the filibuster only to use the filibuster that same day to stop a bi-partisan set of Nordstream 2 sanctions from passing because it was just under the requisite 60 votes. [0] https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-us-not-too-late-stop-russian-pipeline-2021-08-31/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-us-not-too-l...

pjc50 5y ago
[citation needed] If something were actually bipartisan, surely it would be over the filibuster threshold?
- hajile 5y ago
  https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-democrats-slam-cruz-nord-stream-2-sanctions-bill-ahead-vote-2022-01-13/ https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-democrats-slam-cruz-nord... It was 55 to 44. As some Republicans like Rand Paul always vote against sanctions, there were at least 6-7 democrats in favor. In any case, it was merely stating AGAIN what had ALREADY been legislated before (and Biden simply refuse to execute what the Constitution demands)
another_why 5y ago
They show in the news only what they want you to hear. Everything was agreed upon and scheduled long before February, including US,EU,Russia and even Ukraine. Macron was flying all over the world for a reason
- hajile 5y ago
  If the sanctions were never repealed by the US Congress, the US president has no right to overrule their policy. This has been in the US Constitution from the beginning of the country and is hardly controversial. Interestingly, failing to uphold the Constitution and execute the laws passed by congress is serious grounds for impeachment (though it simply will not happen until at least 2023).

deleted 5y ago

[deleted]

meinersbur 5y ago

> If Germany was truly meaning business, they'd stop Nord Stream 1 If Germany is meaning business, they'd stop buying any gas from Russia. Why would the means how it gets to Germany even matter?

ttyyzz 5y ago
How am I going to heat my house?
- AndyMcConachie 5y ago
  Don't know why you got downvoted. All these Americans in this thread can have all the opinions they want. They're not getting screwed by high gas prices right now.
  - mercutio2 5y ago
    Gas prices are extremely high for Americans this year, also. But it’s true that Russia isn’t a driving force in that.
    - lostmsu 5y ago
      I think "extremely high" is quite an overstatement.
    - stjohnswarts 5y ago
      Gas/fuel prices are a global commodity, of course the Ukraine conflict will affect Americans, not as much as Europe, but Americans will get a lot of it as well. The middle east is probably loving the influx of income.
      - mercutio2 5y ago
        Gas in this case means methane, right? While it’s technically true that there’s shipping of LNG outside of pipelines, my impression is that the market for methane isn’t currently very global. My point was that the resurgence of economies and cold winters has driven up US methane prices to 2-2.5x where they were a year ago. I was specifically responding to a commenter implying Americans aren’t experiencing difficulty paying for heating this year. How much higher are German rates for methane?